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There's the closing bell on Wall Street, and now it's market domination overtime sponsored by TC Trade. We're going to be joined by Jared Baker to get us up to speed on the action and the details from today's session. I'm going to start with major averages here, seeing a rally that's about the best in a month for all three major averages. The Dow up about 1160 points today. That's a gain of 2.8%. The S&P 500 up 3.5%, let's call it, to just over 5800 and the.up more than 4% today, about 4.4%. What stands out to me in this session is that it was pretty consistent. We have had a lot of intraday volatility as of late, even on days when it was in a relatively tight range. You saw a lot of bouncing around in that range. You didn't really see that today. Stocks gapped higher out of the gate, and they pretty much stayed higher and even closed at the highs of the session within that tight range. So this is a little bit unlike.Some of the action that we have seen as of late and as we know, all of it has to do with this sort of detente or truce or whatever we're going to call it between the US and China on the worst case scenario for tariffs. Jared's got some more details on the action today. Hey Jared, thank you, Julie.

You nailed it. It's a gap and go day, kind of frustrating for index traders because there's not a lot of volatility in day on a day like this, but I think investors, especially the long term ones.Find this welcome, and I think it's interesting here. Look at the S&P 500 year today. We are just within less than 1% of break even once again and it was just a short distance one month ago that we rocketed off of those lows on April 9th. In fact, that was such a big day that even despite the huge market performance, outperformance today, we are really not even about half of that day one month ago.I want to pay attention to the VIX for a second. Finally broke under 20. That's a big milestone there, just kind of a psychological number. But if you notice here, we are back to the levels that we were at in late March and we had that little hiccup there. It came down and I think before this, let's go back to the bull market of 2023, 2024. We were definitely in the low to mid teens there, so nice to see that happening here and I'm going to.Switch to an enter day view. Consumer discretionary. Amazon, Tesla rocketing that sector higher. A lot of retail stocks. Best Buy, one of the best stocks in the S&P 500. Stanley Black and Decker as well. And then tech is number 2. And if you take a look at the Nasdaq 100, you can really see some of this outsized performance. Amazon up 8%, Meta up almost 8%, Tesla up 6.75%, and just taking in the leader.For a second here, so that would be the semiconductors ETF really rocketing higher. Also seeing aerospace and defense, disruption, retail mag 7, China, you name it, lots of bullish action today, Josh.

All right, thank you, Jared. Well, for more on today's action, let's now welcome in Ryan Kelly. He's chief investment officer at Hennessy Funds. That firm has $1.3 billion in assets under management. Ryan, it's good to see you on set.So you say Ryan, this is a market characterized I think you called it um disconnected resilience. What what does that mean exactly? Walk me through it.

Well, it's a little fancy and it's a little bit more of an idea that it came up, came up with, uh, you know, earlier, uh, over the weekend. uh, obviously a lot has changed today.But the idea is that 6 months ago we had a lot of ideas about what would send that market higher, you know, um, and with a new administration coming in, it could be, you know, lower taxes, it could be less regulation, it could be, you know, just a better business environment, a better economic environment a lot of those things didn't really happen yet, at least, and we've got some pretty um.You know, pretty hard sort of things to work through in the economy with these higher tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty, with a lot of unknowns. You've seen it from corporations as well. They've out of the S&P 500 companies, about 55% of them that give earnings guidance has lowered them this particular quarter. So the idea is this market is.Flat for the year when when you look at a total return basis after today. Yes, today's news is incredible and it pushed things higher, but that that resilience is a little bit disconnected with what's changed since, you know, last November or so when we were looking at the market in a different way.

That that's to me another way of saying what's happened doesn't make sense

in a way.

And so if you're trying to invest in this market and anticipate what's going to happen.And it doesn't always make sense, then what do you do?

Well, a lot of times the market doesn't make sense. Uh, uh, you know, I've been doing this for long enough, yeah, and, um, we see it continue to move higher when we're in the midst of, uh, very difficult situations, um.This is one of the times in which, um, I would to your point we're looking at a situation where you're looking at 5% earnings or revenue growth this year, 9% earnings growth, yet most, um, I guess market analysts out there are calling for 15% upside in the S&P 500 this year. Well, in order for that to happen we have to see.Um, we've seen, uh, uh, PEs go up, and are we gonna see market multiples go up this year? That's gonna be difficult in an environment where you don't really know how to plan for the future. You're seeing companies that want to put Capex to use and they, they want to maybe do something to start producing things here and yet all of a sudden there's a complete change.Um, and we might, it might be more advantageous to continue to get goods from, from outside the United States. Well,

andjust to put a fine point on this, the market is behaving today like obviously it's not the worst case scenario, but the things are more clear. But what you're saying is that things aren't necessarily more clear or more certain.

They're not. And one of the reasons is also we have to talk about what the Fed's going to do, um, and this idea that there's always been a Fed put.Out there it's, it does exist. We do see that, but um, are we going to see the kind of data they're very data dependent and data driven these days, and are we going to see that kind of weakness in the GDP or uh you know increases in unemployment or whatever they want to see or need to see in order to start really reducing rates? We're only looking at 2 to 3 potential rate cuts this year and they.Seem to be in too much of a hurry, so you know, overall I'd say that we are, we're constructive in the market. We're, we're definitely, you know, it is a resilient marketplace, the US market right now. I still think there's a whole lot of unknowns that are going to come out over the next 3 months to 6 months.

So you're you'reconstructive on the market, Ryan, which sectors, where do you see the opportunity?

Well, it may sound a little redundant.Sectors have already done well this year, um, but you know, utilities, we have a utility fund, for instance, which has done very well this year. Uh, those companies are actually seen out of all the S&P 500s I've seen some of the best, um, sort of outperformance in earnings this first quarter. Um, they're utilities, they're not super exciting, uh, but they're defensive in nature, of course. Uh, we also think, you know, staples and financials. We think there's more to go with financials if we continue to see.The yield curve staying steeper like it is, that's going to help the banks. The economy feels a little better right now. Uh, tariffs coming down makes everybody a little bit more comfortable in that, and I think financials are going to do well for the rest of this year aswell.

What about the tax bill equation and how that feeds into all of this?

That's a tough one because that's depending on how it all shakes out, um, we're not sure if it's gonna really help the consumer or not. Um, I think one of the things that it was, as I talked about, we talked about that 6 months ago idea ofCorporate taxes, what about those, you know, if there's really a potential out there where you see another corporate tax break, that's gonna be completely to the bottom line for these companies and it's gonna be positive for the stock market. It's not necessarily gonna be positive immediately for the economy overall or for consumers, but I think that's another thing that we'll, we'll continue to to look at

probably be positive for the market.

It will, it will absolutely, yeah, um, so, uh, so yeah, we, we continue to just invest personally, you know, for the long term.Um, a lot of this stuff going on, it's not noise, it's very important, but our process really looks over many, many years anyways, uh, and so, you know, some of our funds have been around for 20, even 29 years, and those continue to be run the same way, uh, you know, going forward as well.

Ryan, thanks for coming into the studio. I appreciate it.

Thanks for having me.

President Donald Trump is taking aim at taxing some of America's wealthiest individuals and married couples. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman here with more details. Rick, we were just talking about what could end up being in this big beautiful bill as the president likes to call it, um, and there's a lot of stuff on the table, so this is one of the things that has been floated.

Well, Trump himself has sort of had had tepid support for what you might call a millionaire's tax, but it's not much of one. His idea is you go all the way up to $2.5 million in annual income for individuals. It'll be $5 million for married people, and then you would instead of paying the 37%.tax on that you would go back to the old top tax bracket of 39.6%. So he has kind of suggested that maybe Congress put that in their tax bill, but it would only generate about $2 billion of revenue per year, which is nothing. I mean, my calculator doesn't even have enough decimal points to figure out what percentage.of federal spending is that it's, it's puny. However, if you lowered the income threshold to 1 million or you just went back to where it was before before Trump cut the top rate in 2017, you'd actually get more money. You could get as much as $200 billion per year. That that's actually real money.and they need money, so Congress is giving themselves permission to add $4 trillion to the national debt with this tax bill, but they've got somewhere between $6 trillion.09 trillion dollars worth of tax cuts and other stuff they want to do. So they're trying to find ways to come up with new revenue or cuts.Spending and it's, and they're getting to the point where it's going to be very tough. I mean, there, there are no, there's no easy way to do this and every, every spending cut or tax hike hurts somebody. So when you, when you, when we're going to have to do this, it is going to be wealthy Americans who are going to get the tax hike first before anybody else. So why not now?

Why not indeed, Rick, thanks so much. Good to see you.

Bye guys.

Auto companies among those moving higher today led by Tesla as the US and China agree to pause tariffs for 90 days, although the auto sector was excluded from the deal, optimism still remains. Joining us now, senior autos reporter Prasuramani. And so what changes it? Does anything change for the automakers?Nothing

nothing's changed. It's all about optimism. Uh, Dan I was telling me that they hope that autos are next on the docket for any type of deal. Uh, so currently you still have the 100% plus EV China EV tariffs are still in place right now. Uh, you also have 25% parts and part in auto tariffs, so that nothing's changed, but there's optimism growing that that will potentially be next for Trump and and and the team, but.I mean that's still a big if, right? And, and, and he hasn't mentioned anything about changing sector tariffs for autos at this moment, uh, and we hear, we heard about just this quarter how bad it could be, right? 4 to $5 billion for GM, $1.5 billion for Ford in terms of eit full year Eit hits, and Toyota alone, $1.3 billion in the last two months. Was was

Toyota the worst, by the way, is that,

yeah, yeah, for April and May they anticipate a $1.3 billion dollar hit to operating profits. So that's like.Giving us an idea of how bad it could be for them. So a deal with Japan could be a big deal for the for the US, which is more likely than a deal with China for for such autos.

Andjust to be, so just to be clear, the 145% that was imposed, the blanket tariff on China, that was not the tariff on auto parts. That was always just the 25%, correct? So it already wasn't the sort of.That highest tariff that was out there, right?

Theyhad sort of hived off all the auto stuff to its own separate sort of sector tariff exactly 100% and

acompany like Tesla, the cars it sells in China, it makes in China, yes, right, so it doesn't really materially affect it. It's more aboutVibes, I

guess, yeah, but also there's parts that that they, there are some parts that come from China that they use that they can't replicate here. So that's part of, but you're absolutely right, it's more about optimism and these you said vibes. It's what's coming up next. I think that's sort of why everyone's bidding up the automakers right now.

Got you. Alright, thank you, Pra appreciate it.Moving on, retail stocks flying high as the US and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days. The latest tariff move potentially saving the year for retailers. Our finance's Brooke De Palma joins us now with the very latest. Brooke,

good afternoon to you both. This was certainly a sigh, a huge sigh of relief for retailers, especially as this is the time when they really prepare for that critical back to school season as well as the holiday season. One analyst even telling me that this may have just saved the.Christmas season now that they can bring inventory and get product in ahead of those two crucial selling periods this year. Now this 90 day pause will reduce those US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%. And this went from what one analyst called an impossible situation to a much more manageable yet challenging situation and lots of companies that have discretionary goods, the one that we are seeing the.Major moves in today during Monday's trading session that includes companies like Amazon, Target, and Best Buy. Best Buy, as you can see there, has 55% of its exposure to China's sourcing. Those were some companies that saw the highest moves today because they're largely these discretionary oriented retailers, and they're the ones that have that decent exposure to China. Others also making moves today include.Companies like Dollar Tree 5 Below and Wayfair seeing major moves today up more than 20% for 5 below as well as Wayfair, largely, largely because investors are optimistic that this will then be a sigh of relief, especially because of that exposure to China. Now in terms of what this means for price increases, if you take a company like Best Buy now assuming that the manufacturer absorbs about 50% of tariffs, we'll still see about a 3%.To 5% increase to offset the effect here. One analyst calling that yet again more manageable. Two stocks that companies that rather analysts still really like Walmart and Costco still expect to do well in this environment, given their scale. Also, consumers turning to low price products in this environment and also largely groceries still as they really focus down on essential

needs. Interesting. So we'll see how this

all plays out. Thanks.

Thank you, Brooke.Stick around. Much more market domination over time. Still to come.

Small business sentiment has recently been on the decline as companies navigate tariff uncertainty. Now temporary tariff cuts between the US and China. Could that, could we see the relief that small enterprises needed? Here to discuss is Elizabeth Gore, co-founder and president of Hello Alice and host of the Yahoo Finance podcast, The Big Idea. Elizabeth, good to see you talked to.A lot of small business owners, of course, um, and help them navigate through their entrepreneurial journey. So, um, they've had a lot to do with this year dealing with all the tariff headlines have been changing fast and furious. We see the public market, the market for public companies, big companies reacting well to this. What are you hearing from small businesses?

Well, Howie, I hear a sigh of relief across all 50 states here. The cost of goods sold was going up so much that we had folks literally with things stuck in port because they were afraid to pay those tariffs. If you look at someone like Busy Baby, who's a US veteran owned business, they thought their costs were gonna be going up 140%. So there is a giant sigh of relief, maybe people sleeping a little better tonight.

Elizabeth, I'm just curious, when, when you're talking small business owners, um, tariffs, obviously, of course, front and center right now. How often are they bringing up those Trump tax cuts getting extended, Elizabeth?

Oh, over and over. So tariffs and taxes, those are doublets right now, and that is the question that we're getting thousands of emails at Hello Wallis on am I gonna get a tax break? Am I gonna get a tariff break? What's the deal with inflation? Small business owners are very savvy. They're tracking the news just like the rest of us, and this absolutely impacts them probably even more directly than the corporations that you're covering right now.

Um, uh, to go back to the tariffs for a moment though, we've been talking to some of the small business owners that you know, folks like at Brooklyn Tea, for example, and they were trying to navigate the worst case scenario tariffs by, you know, forging new relationships, trying out different supply chains and trying out different vendors. So they were putting the work into doing that.Now, are they still sticking with that? Are they going back to their Chinese vendors? How, you know, when things are changing so quickly, what do they do?

Well, this is an iterate or die situation. I mean, very much like when we're in COVID when things change every couple of days. So the smartest business owners like the folks over at Brooklyn Tea that we love, shout out to them, are going to constantly have plan A, B, C, and Z to make sure that they're good to go. Now,Brooklyn tea is interesting because it's not just China, they source from other countries as well as well. So they're not just tracking that one tariff, they're looking across multiple countries. If you have to distinguish new supply chain relationships, you just have to, and have those ready in case things flip flop again.

You know, Elizabeth, I, I'm curious, we talk a lot on this show about the soft, the soft data taking a hit and if and how and when that would translate to the hard economic data. I'm just curious, when you, when you're talking to small business owners across various sectors, industries, Elizabeth, how would you characterize basic underlying demand right now? How healthy, how resilient does it seem?

Well, first, there's no such thing as a soft cost in a small business. Uh, literally, when you're getting that cup of coffee, they had to buy the cup it's in, they had to source the beans, they had to pay for their water bill. So direct costs are all hard costs for small business. I will say the sentiment coming into the year was much higher than it is now. There was a lot of concern about consumer behavior, particularly going into the holidays. Are folks gonna step back because their 401ks are going down? Are they not gonna buy those gifts that they thought they were gonna buy for their kids. Now, ifWe can get these breaks on the tax side and then also really think about the tariffs going down, folks in the stock market picking back up, that affects consumer behavior, that affects if you're going to walk into that small business and buy that item. And so what we need to know right now is it a pain pill or is it a vitamin? Is this gonna make us feel better and so maybe we'll go, or is it actually gonna fix something and we are gonna purchase again. So that sentiment is gonna keep evolving, but I gotta tell you, it's still a bit of highs and lows right now.

Um, is there anything right now that small business owners can do in terms of, I mean, I guess there's stuff always around in terms of small business grants, in terms of aid, in terms of loans that, uh, they can be getting. Is there anything people should be keeping an eye out on right now?

Yeah, the two areas right now is if you do have incoming receipts, I do like lines of credit. It's something that you don't have to use. It doesn't cost you anything if you don't use it. But think about applying for that. The second are grants, non-dilutive funding of capital, small business grants. You can go to helloL.com/funding and apply for $10,000 to $250,000 grants. So look at.Those non-dilutive capital resources in case you do need them, and the best money is the stuff you already have in the bank. So try not to spend too much right now.

Elizabeth, final question, you know, when you look at uh the environment we we find ourselves in here for small business owners across the country, does it compare and contrast to other, other periods, other challenges, Elizabeth, or no, do you think this is sort of uncharted territory here?

You know, um, if, if you really look back, you know, COVID and also natural disasters, I know that doesn't sound like it, but small businesses, uh, 2/3 of counties in the United States have had some kind of serious natural disaster, and that hits them really hard. They have to close, they lose receipts, they lose employee engagement.Um, COVID obviously was, was a big hit, ups and downs like this. So I do think small businesses after the last 67 years are used to uncertainty. They have to plan for it. On the flip side, I think that the, in a positive way, they have better, uh, ability to get new data, um, using AI about their receipts, about their businesses. So that also helps them plan, but I don't think we can use the word unprecedented anymore when it comes to the small business environment.

Elizabeth, great to see you as always and be sure to check out the Big Idea podcast with Elizabeth Gore at every Thursday for more on the world of small business.Time now for what to watch Tuesday, May 13th, sponsored by Tasty Trade, start off here on the earnings front. We'll be getting another round of earnings from companies including JD.com on holding and Tencent Music Entertainment. On holding and announcing results for the first quarter before the markets open. Analysts expecting sales to rise almost 35% driven by strong brand awareness and innovation. Investors will be listening closely for any updated commentary on tariffs as the US and China agree to pause tariffs for 90.

Moving over to the economy's new inflation data coming in tomorrow with CPI, that's the Consumer price index. Economists forecast both total and core CPI in April will tick up 3.1% to 3.1% on a month over month basis.

And taking a look at small businesses, the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism index coming out in the morning. That number is expected to drop to 95%, but with US-China trade war de-escalating, small businesses could start breathing a sigh of relief in the coming months.

That'll do it for today's market domination overtime. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell.

And don't go anywhere though. On the other side of the break, it's a for a trend, got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories so you can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tuned.