The closing bell is ringing until the cows come home, signaling the end to another trading day on Wall Street.
Josh Lipton and Madison Mills recap the session's top trading themes while speaking to Wall Street experts and breaking the latest earnings results.
Charles Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, comes on the program to talk about the moves seen in US and European markets.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here.
That is your closing bell on Wall Street. Taking a look at live images from the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq here and now it is market domination overtime sponsored by Tasty trade. We are joined by Jared Blicky to get you up to speed on the action from today's trade, but let's see where the major averages ended up here. Taking a look at your S&P 500 just barely eking out in day gains. We did see quite a bit of volatility, but I should mention a prettier picture when you zoom out a touch over the last 3 days we're up about.4% if you look at how we've been doing year to date here, just eking out enough to get back in the black here for the S&P 500. Taking a look at the Nasdaq still under a bit of pressure year to date in terms of today's market action though you can see that the tech heavy Nasdaq is up about 0.7%, driving a lot of the gains here in your tech-heavy Nasdaq, of course, the chips names you had Nvidia closing up 4% today. Let's head over to Jared now at the New York Stock Exchange for a closer look at the sector action.
Well thank you, Matty. Yeah, this is by my count, day number 6 to the upside for the Nasdaq. Day number 2 to the downside for the Dow. Healthcare weighing on the Dow once again and you were just looking at the Nasdaq 100. I'm going to search for the Dow and let's take a look at that. UnitedHealth was the big loser yesterday, basically cut in half over the last month, and you can see it's down at the bottom of your screen, down about 1.1% today, so a little bit less worse than yesterday. Merck down 4%. Amgen down 3%. And if we take a look at the sector action here, you can see healthcare by far and away the biggest laggard to the downside, down 2.3%. But to the upside, it was the mega cap sectors, the mag 7 sectors, tech, XLK communication services, and consumer discretionary all in the green, but not by.margins and so we're not seeing too many outsized movements today. If I take a look at some of the leaders, we see Mag 7 ETF MAGS that is leading to the upside, followed by solar, which has been popping lately along with KWeb. Now that's a Chinese internet ETF. To the downside we've got home builders down 2.5%, biotech another 2% points down, cannabis and also Bitcoin.But let's dig into some of these real quickly. I just want to take a look at the tech sector inside the semiconductor space. Nvidia leading for the second day in a row, all of the mag 7, that's up 4%, up a little bit more in the upper right. That is AMD up 4.68%, arm up more than 5%, and to the downside leading is Intel. That is down 4.6%. I'll send it back to you guys.
Thank you, Jared.Investors have been in the throes of tariff policy whiplash, Fed decision, and earnings reports. Constant uncertainty keeps it interesting, of course, but uneasy when it comes to managing portfolios. Our next guest is no stranger to navigating these conditions. We're joined now by Charles Sizemore. He is chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital.The firm has over $110 million in assets under management. Welcome Charles to the show. I'm gonna start, Charles, where you see opportunity right now. We have, we do have some smart folks, Charles, strategist, CIOs, they come on the show and, and they do see opportunity overseas, specifically in Europe, and it sounds like Charles, you agree with that call.
0, 100%, and it's not that I'm bearished on the US with the, the tariff, uh, the entire tariff trade war here essentially on pause for the next 90 days. The biggest impediment to the US market going higher has been resolved. But the bigger question of course is who is really in the wings waiting to buy the US market.Everybody is already in. Everyone is already overweight, whether you're talking about, you know, mom and pop investors all the way to people running, you know, multi-billion dollar pension funds. The US has been their biggest holding and then specifically US tech. So that has been a crowded trade for a while after all of the volatility this year, if you're any investor, whether retail, institutional, whatever.You're, you're looking at your portfolio from the top down, you're going to say, OK, well, I, I don't really have much exposure to Europe right now. I don't have a lot of exposure to emerging markets. Suddenly, it makes sense to reallocate. So even if, you know, that rising tide lifts all boats, markets in general are looking good, I think you are likely to continue.To see capital floating into Europe and, and really non-US stocks. It is worth noting the the like a broad basket of European stocks, just take a Vanguard ETF, for example, is up about 17% year to date, whereas the S&P 500 is flat. So I, I definitely see a longer runway there.
Yeah, and one of the questions I was talking to Maria Vietnam about this uh over in Europe. She sits in Europe about a little bit of the European trade potentially being overplayed because to your point we've already had a lot of gains year to date. So are there any specific stocks or sectors that you are looking at that you think still have a little bit more room to run in the Europe trade?
Yeah, sure, but before I get into that, I would say I, I think it's really untrue that that that trades looking long in the tooth. If you look at the, you know, call it the, the 2000 to 2007 window, European stocks beat the pants off the S&P 500 and that was, that was a long stretch. We're talking about seven years there.We're talking about today is measured in months, but you know, drilling down, what specific sectors look really good? Defense. What, uh, what's happening there? Europe and the US have really diverged, you know, their interests are no longer aligned as they were for the Cold War and the decades immediately following.Europe figured out that they're kind of alone in the world right now. If they want to project power, want to project influence, they're going to have to do it themselves. That means they are rearming. Just this week, the various members of NATO were talking about increasing defense spending to up to 5% of GDP.That's a stretch. I don't know that they'll ever get that high, but you are still, regardless, looking at a major investment in defense, and the European countries are going to be more likely to buy that at home. They're more likely to look to their domestic defense contractors as opposed to looking at ours.
And Charles, let's talk gold as well here. Listen, obviously glitter this year. Uh, maybe the US-China trade truce, Charles just recently, obviously a boost to risk assets but maybe put a little dent in the, in the metal shine. You still though like gold long term. How come?
Sure, like gold is that multi-purpose hedge. So it's an inflation hedge, of course. Well, the inflation's starting to to come down. Inflation's nearly to the Fed's, uh, you know, the Fed's target.It's also a crisis hedge, and we, we saw it really benefit from that in April, of course, when it looked like the world was ending, gold did phenomenally well. Well, now all that's at least on pause for the next 90 days. But what else is gold a hedge for? The dollar. It's, it's a hedge for currency risk. And if you are, the trade war, you know, the tariff portion of the trade war anyway, it looks like it's, it's on pause indefinitely. Uh, you do have the bigger picture though ofAgain, it kind of goes back to the same way that portfolio managers are reallocating their stock portfolios. Central banks and international players are also reassessing their currency risk. You don't have to have them flee the dollar. You just have to have them slightly allocate out of that and diversify across other currencies and gold for that to really move the metal. So I'm, I'm still a gold bull, it probably will be for the rest of this year.
And also here I want to get a check on another uh stock that I know you're taking a look at here, actually a basket of stocks and that's the Magnificent Seven which we have not talked about. I'm curious, how are you thinking about these names? Do you think that there's still longevity in the tech trade?
The issue with the tech trade is specifically Mag 7, is that it is the market now. They so completely dominate the S&P 500 that they can't really meaningfully outperform the S&P 500. It's, they are the index now. So the companies are great, they're wildly profitable. The only real criticism is that it's a crowded trade and has been for a while. I don't know anybody.That doesn't already own the mag 7 and already own them in a disproportionately large, uh, large part of their portfolio. So that's, that's really what it comes down to is just concentration that that trade is very crowded and has been for years.
Charles, great to see you and have you on the show, Tate. Thank you.Get to some earnings to Cisco is just out now with their numbers. Let's get that 23 adjusted EPS 96 cents, which is an estimate of 92 cents, uh, for revenue $14.15 billion. The street was closer to $14.05 billion in terms of what they're seeing ahead. They are calling for Q4 just EPS 96 to 98 cents. Consensus was at 95.for Q44 revenue they are forecasting between 14.5 and 14.7 billion. The estimate was $14.51 billion on the street and for full year revenue, Matty, they are now calling for between 56.5 to $56.7 billion. They had seen 56 to $56.5 billion and you can see here we are popping initially in the after hours.
Taking a look at the statement here, the CEO and chair Chuck Robbins out with some commentary in the statement saying Cisco once again had strong quarterly results of clear demand for our technologies and of course you've got that AI mentioned above the fold on the statement. The momentum we're seeing with AI is fueled by the power of our secure networking portfolio, trusted global partnerships and the value we bring to customers. Also hearing from the CFO who's going to be on our morning show tomorrow morning talking about howThey had a solid drive of revenue margins and EPS all above guidance ranges. One thing I'm going to be interested in digging into a little bit more is their efforts to diversify in terms of customers and product sales going forward here and the degree to which they had success with that over the course of the quarter.
Yeah, on the call other kind of themes and trends. I know analysts are going to be looking for the broad networking recovery we are seeing here. What does CO Chuck Robins have to say there? Any more color and.Commentary on the security business is always top of mind. AI orders, the trends he sees there, the product refresh tailwinds, any kind of color and commentary he can also give about the macro always in focus for investors. There were risks that I know and had called out to potential risks and, and specifically possible public spending centric headwinds. So what does Robins have to say, uh, all, all will be on top of mind for, for investors analysts.Listening in, yeah,
absolutely, and they do say throughout the statement here that their guidance moving forward does include any estimated impact of tariffs based on current trade policy. It's always interesting to point that out during this volatile earnings cycle. Coming up here, another name we're going to watch. It's been a wild ride for core We since the company priced its initial public offering of $40 in late March. On the other side, we'll bring you coweave's first earnings print. Stay tuned. Much more market domination overtime still to come.Weave out with their first earnings report since going public. Let's take a look at the results here, really critical for Cowe. First quarter revenue coming in at 981.6 million. That is above the street's estimate here, which was $862.3 million in terms of revenue. That is really critical because it's also a guide in terms of the company's ability to move forward with deploying its.Via GPUs. We'll get to that in a second after I break some more of these numbers for you. Taking a look at we first quarter loss per share of $1.49. 1st quarter adjusted IEA coming in at $606.1 million here. First quarter adjusted EA margin of 62%. 1st quarter adjusted net loss of $149.6 million. The first quarter net loss here.And at $314.6 million you can see the shares are up a little over 1.5%, but at one point, Josh, after the print, they were up as much as 6%.
Yeah, our own Brian Sazi has done some great reporting on this name and as Sai's pointed out, there have been sort of, you know, you'll hear these concerns investors highlight about this name, but the company uses, um, you know, large amounts of debt to buy chips, Microsoft.Accounts for kind of a big chunk of the company's sales when you read through the bullish takes on it, I think bulls in broad strokes, I guess Matty continue to just pound the table that we are in the early innings of this AI build out, and they continue to believe core weave is one of the smarter ways to play it, that it's leveraged to capitalize and benefit.
Yeah, earlier today I was also speaking with Gil Laura about this name and his expectation for tonight. One of the things he pointed to me is that the company's biggest customer.Right now OpenAI has a multi-year commitment of $15 billion and they bring that up straight away in the print in the second line of the earnings statement. They talk about how their major strategic deal with OpenAI, as well as other customer wins going forward and one of their acquisitions, were key technical achievements over the course of the quarter here. They talk about how demand is robust and accelerating as AI leaders seek to highly perform an AI cloud infrastructure going forward, and they see core.As a beneficiary of that, you mentioned the debt problem that's going to be something for investors to watch, but certainly a potential read through to Nvidia going.
Brent Till over at Jeffrey's he's a fan of this name, friend of the show. Brent puts it like this to his clients. He says while there are concerns over the durability of Cove's business model, we believe that the unrelenting appetite for AI compute minimizes the downside risk.
There's yourbullish. There you go. A lot of bullishness around the name at least at the tape after hours here.But eToro is making its public debut on the Nasdaq. The stock surging after its initial public offering. This does come as fintech company Chime recently filed to go public as well. The recent activity signaling a sense of, dare we say, enthusiasm in the IPO market. Here to discuss Rainmaker Securities managing director Greg Martin. Greg, help me out here. A month ago I was talking to everyone about how the IPO market had dried up. Is it really just about where the S&P 500 sits where you and I take our conversations?
Well, good to see you again. Thank you for having me. You know, it's, it's been a roller coaster ride. Uh, we thought the IPO window was going to reopen when, you know, Cor we went public. Cor we was, as you point out, had a great earnings report, has traded up nicely since it went public just before the tariff trade. And then, of course, we had, um, you know, the trade wars that were announced in early April. We shelved 3 IPOs, you know, Klarna, um, StubHub and Chime and Hinge Health actually another.That had filed and was going to go on the road. Um, the market's looking, the market likes IPOs, um, you know, we're we're seeing very positive trading from the IPOs that went out last year in the tech sector and as you mentioned core weave, um, the market wants to see some stability. I think they're getting more and more comfortable about where the, you know, the trade tariff wars are going to settle. Um, and I think that's going to be good news. It'll provide a firm foundation for uh what is a very interesting slate of companies that will probablyGo public soon. So I, I'm hopeful that we're going to start to see a resurgence in the IPO market based on what we've seen. It's not necessarily about the S&P 500, it's more about the stability of the overall market.
How, how, Greg, would you characterize the pipeline right now? I mean, are there, you know, Greg, are, are there a significant number of companies kind of waiting in the wings, Greg, and do they fall, you know, do you see them falling into certain categories more than others? Is it consumer or is it enterprise? Just, just instigate your line of sight.
Yeah, the pipeline's very strong. I mean, we've got companies that historically would have been public a long time ago sitting in this pipeline, you know, I mentioned, I mentioned Klarna, I mentioned StubHub. BigMA is reportedly had just retained bankers. We saw Chime, you know, refile.Yesterday, digital health er Hinge health refiled yesterday. Um, so we have a very strong pipeline as you can, you know, see from those and obviously eToro just priced today, uh, and we you know, expect Circle to also refile. Uh, so there's a lot of fintech companies in that group that I just mentioned.Um, you know, Figma is a more of an enterprise software company, um, and StubHub obviously is a ticket company that's, you know, been public before, been private back public. Um, I, I, I think it's, I think there's a fairly broad based group of companies and then of course we're not even talking about, you know, the really big potential IPOs whether it's Stripe or Data bricks.Uh, maybe we'll see Starlink from SpaceX, maybe we'll see, uh, ByteDance once, you know, the, the TikTok stuff gets sorted out. So there's a really good roster of potential pipeline. Um, at this point, I, I wouldn't necessarily categorize it, but these are companies that are, there are 10 billion plus in the private markets, um, some of which are 100 billion plus in the private market.that historically would have already been public, so a really strong pipeline.
Well, let's hit on eToro, obviously our latest IPO here that we want to talk about, and I know in your notes you compare it to the Israeli-based Robin Hood. Taking a look at Robin Hood shares just year to date they're up 55%. To what extent do you see a read through of that kind of performance for anyone who's investing in eToro?
Well, I mean, it tracks pretty closely with uh with, with crypto, um, and both companies have significant crypto trading platforms, um, and of course you could, you know, you could add Coinbase to that list of companies that have performed extremely well. Um, so as we've seen crypto rise, you're seeing a lot more trading and and the business model for for eToro and Robin Hood and Coinbase is they make money when trades happen. And so the more you see trading happening and, and coin and crypto is one big area.The more you're gonna see, uh, the more you're gonna see revenues rise and the more you're gonna see those stocks rise. So I think, I think it's not surprising that eToro is priced well, has traded up, uh, and obviously Robin Hood and Coinbase are its two closest comps.
Greg, always great to see you and to have you on the show. Thank you so much for joining us.
Great to see you. Thank you.
Well, from recession fears to manufacturing challenges, all aspects of the current economic climate seem to be touched by tariff concerns. Our very own Brian Sazi sat down with Wilbur Ross, the former US Commerce Secretary during President Trump's first administration to weigh in on the latest.
You still have an investment bank like Goldman Sachs after the trade agreement with China. They, they were at a 45% chance of recession this year. Now they're at 35%. Would you agree with their probability?
Well, there's probably always a 20 or 25% chance of recession.And it's been many years since we had a real recession. COVID, uh, you have to put to the side because that was not an economic recession that had to do with the horrible epidemic.So it's been a long time and we're therefore due to recession at some point. My biggest worry in terms of whether there will be a recession is Jay Powell and his antipathy toward the president, their mutual antipathy makes it less like.that he'll be reducing rates as soon as I would prefer that he do so.
Should hebe fired as the president has suggested?
Well, it's not at all clear that the president can fire the head of the Federal Reserve. My guess is if it were clear, Trump would have fired.in the first administration. So I, I would be very surprised to see an effort to do that, uh, and that would be litigated in any event. So by the time he got done with it, his term will have expired. His term expires pretty soon.
To be fair to Jalwell, it's hard to cut rates because they're concerned about the inflation outlook. Where do you stand on tariffs equating to inflation? Do you think we will see
inflation soon? Well, where I disagree with him about the impact of tariffs on inflation is this you can make the case there'll be a one-time step up in inflation, but unless the tariffs kept going up as a percentage.There's no reason to believe that it'll be incrementally more the next year and the next year. So I don't agree with the argument that, uh, tariffs justify fears of continuing inflation.I, I just don't think so. And when you start getting down to low levels like 10%, 20%, a lot of that is absorbable anyway.
What do you think about, you know, now there's reports that, you know, given that backdrop of tariffs potential inflation, Apple CEO Tim Cook looking at price increases for his products, even if tariffs are removed.
Well, uh, Apple are very cool.strategists and remember their purpose is not to boost or not boost the economy. Their purpose is to maximize profit, so they will clearly use whatever strategy accomplishes that goal.
And you are in the in your term as commerce secretary, you work closely with the semiconductor industry, a lot of, lot of tech players. Should investors believe Tim Cook that he really wants to make products in the US?
Oh, I think he will make products where it makes the most sense. You'll notice what he started with is moving assembly out of China to India.Well, I think it won't be long before he moves the rest out as well. Reason being this within China, which like India is a great huge land mass, within China, ground transportation is very good, very good railroads, very good highways.India transportation is not so good, so it's going to be a lot more complicated getting the parts to India to the factories for assembly than it was in China. So I think this is just the start of moving more out. Now moving a factory to India doesn't.help us, but um, what will help us is as the demand grows and as they source the semiconductors from the US as opposed to elsewhere that will help.
Do you believewe can make iPhones in America?And what that will actually happen
physically we certainly could physically. We have the technology um whether we will end up doing it, I don't know, but there are a lot of high value components to it. The last bit of assembly is not the highest value, uh, to the product.
And some of that work very closely on with semiconductors, uh, in, in the first presidency, curious on what you think about.The export controls on on AI chips with China sounds like we've had a little bit of a breakthrough there, but what's your sense of where things,
I think it's essential. I think it's quite important that we be the leaders in both semiconductor and in AI, and as you may remember, I spent a couple of years.Getting TSMC, the highest tech one from Taiwan to put their next factory in Arizona, and then they pushed for the chips Act, which finally went through. It took a little time. It took too long, but at least it got through. But what's interesting.TSMC, since you didn't have Americans who were trained how to make chips, and it's a very highly technical process, and you're working in tiny, tiny areas, so there's no room for margin of error. So TSMC took hundreds of American workers, sent them to Taiwan at their expense for 6 months to train them. Now they've.Come back in their work and TSMC says productivity in Arizona is actually better than the productivity in Taiwan. Well, we start getting stories like that in high tech that'll make up for the higher wages.
You know you've beenright a lot of times on this program about tariffs and where things are going, moving forward, what's your biggest remaining concern or concerns regarding US trade policy?
Um, my biggest concerns are the enforcement, um, because it looks as though he's going to have different tariffs for the same product depending on which country they come from. Problem with that is if you're a high tariff country, you're gonna find a way to move them through a low tariff country.So what we need, the missing piece is to get the low tariff countries to put barriers so that you won't have the transshipment or other devices to get around the high tariffs in say China. That's the most complicated part because that requires all those local countries to change their tariff regimes.
Time now for to watch Thursday, May 15th, sponsored by Tasty Trade. They start off on the earnings front. We're gonna be getting a robust round of reports tomorrow that will include Walmart, Alibaba, and Take-Two. Walmart announced results for the first quarter in the morning and I was expecting Walmart's same store sales to rise in Q1, driven by value.Seeking consumers and a strong Easter season, but sales of general merchandise may grow slower due to cautious spending and tariffs.
And take a look at the economy, some fresh inflation data coming tomorrow morning with the producer price index. Economists forecasting both total and core PPI to increase to 0.2% and 0.3%.Respectively, that's on a month over month basis, signaling a return to inflationary pressures in supply chains
and moving over to the Fed, we're going to be getting some more Fed commentary tomorrow, including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. President Trump we know taking a Truth Social again yesterday, expressing his frustration with Powell, calling for the Fed chair to lower interest rates.
Well, that's going to do it for today's market domination overtime. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closingbell.
But don't go anywhere on the other side of the break, it's asking for a trend. Got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories, so you can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tuned.