Strategist is 'cautious' about adding risk around market growth

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The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is back and holding above 6,000 for the first time since falling off of February's record highs. Wall Street has turned more bullish on equities (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) as firms are raising their year-end targets on the S&P 500.

Marketgauge.com Chief Strategist Michele Schneider shares her risk outlook as key sectors struggle to return to 2021 highs, also taking a look at indexes' moving averages.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.

00:00 Speaker A

It's time now for today's strategy session as investors await key catalyst for stock gains Wall Street is bullish. Analysts of Barclays and JP Morgan both calling for more gains ahead. So how much upside is there? Joining us now, Michelle Schneider, MarketGauge.com's Chief Strategist. Michelle, it's great to have you on this morning. Talk to me about what you are for seeing when it comes to how much more room to run the market has without a clear key catalyst in sight.

00:44 Michelle Schneider

Well, certainly, the the milestone of 6,000 is something that everybody's excited about, and we can see that the SPYs and the Qs are really close to their all-time highs. So that's when I like to watch what I call the inside sectors, actually a phrase coined by Stanley Druckenmiller. And that would be the retail, the transportation, and the small caps. And they have a lot of catching up to do. Currently, if we're looking at IWM, the high was 224. It's trading around 214, not so bad. Transportation though, really lagging behind that and interestingly enough, although retail has been leading lately in those inside sectors, it's still almost 30% away from its all-time high that was made in 2021. So so there's a couple of things to be aware of and that is it's great to see the growth stocks go and we've seen this over and over and over again. But we really need to see things that will actually stimulate the economy participate, and of course, that would be manufacturing, most importantly, the consumer, and then how robust goods and services are moving. And we're not seeing that yet. So I'm cautious here in terms of adding risk.

03:09 Speaker A

You know, one of my favorite technicals to track is a very simple one, and it's just the moving averages here, especially trying to get a gauge of the 200-day moving averages versus the 50-day moving averages that we're seeing. And as of right now, on the 200 day, this market is relatively split in terms of the companies that are trading above or below. It's almost 50/50. But the 50-day moving average, a little bit more weighted to trading above that. I wonder from a technical analysis perspective, what your key technical indicator is that you're watching right now to really get a gauge of where spirits are transpiring and sentiment within the market.

04:17 Michelle Schneider

Well, first of all, I love moving averages, and I love the 50 and the 200. So let's just broaden out that time frame a bit and go to the weekly moving averages. And that's really where I think is most interesting right now. So for example, semiconductors, they're back over their 50-week moving average and the 50 is above the 200, which is also important. You want that positioning to show more of a bullish edge and it is. The same thing with retail. It got over its 50 week. That's really encouraging. So I'm certainly not trying to be negative. I'm just trying to look out. And then if you look at the small caps, they're below the 50 week. If you look at transportation, it's below the 50 week and regional banks are sitting right on it and I like to look at the regionals as opposed to the actual big banks, and I know you mentioned the financials in the beginning. So, and biotech, by the way, is just under everything. So that has a lot to do to prove that it can come back. That's what I'm looking at because from a weekly standpoint, we need to get those things back into these bullish weekly phases and we're halfway there.