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Hello and welcome to Market domination. I'm Josh Lipton alongside Madison Mills. We are live from our NYC headquarters, and we're giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right movesfor your money.

And here is your headline blitz getting you up to speed one hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street.

The real issue is that the tariff cat is out of the bag, and even though we've had uh several climbdowns by the Trump administration, uh, in part due to the impact of tariffs on market psychology.Uh, to your earlier conversation, particularly in our view, uh, on the treasury market, um, you know, the Trump administration has stepped back most visibly and recently with China, but the cat is out of the bag and so even with the pullback in the numbers of tariffs on China, you're still talking about the highest tariffs in the United States since World War II or earlier.

They also secure partnerships with the United States when it comes to chips, so they have what I call the computer triangle chips, data centers and capital and that what makes them very powerful player in the AI ecosystem globally and this is why you see a lot of excitement around the president's trip to the region because it's more of a new era of relationship between the United States and the Gulf.It's nice to have Boeing run by a guy who actually goes on the floor and knows how planes are put together versus the salesman when the doors fall off midflight. That doesn't work, OK, so Kelly is going to turn the business around. He's already done that. The stock is 129 4 weeks ago. It's 200 today. They just got a huge order. This is icing on the cake.

One hour until the market closed, we're taking a look at the major averages. You still got some gains on your S&P 500, just barely here, taking a look at the three days of this week so far though, prettier picture up 4%. Your tech heavy Nasdaq taking on the majority of those gains today. It's up about 0.5%. I know we don't love it when I talk about bonds, but I'm going to do it anyway because the tenure is hitting above 4.5%. Josh, that could be a headwind to stocks as that starts to look a little more attractiveto invest.

Yeah, I was looking at S&P.500, we all kind of muted today, uh, of course the backdrop, Matty being the just remarkable rally we saw the big move in risk assets. I was just, uh, before coming on reading, um, the technician from Piper Smart group over there and I was just curious what they were seeing. They were saying, listen, short term they were telling our clients we're kind of stretched here. They were arguing a modest pullback though that confirmed support. They argue that's a buying opportunity.

And that's going to be the question going forward. Do weContinue to see investors buying the rally here, especially when you have some of these big tech names. If we could take a look at those individual names on our screen behind us here really moving to the upside, keeping the averages up too. And

then before we go to get a quick check on chips as well, because that's been a lot of the action has been as well today. It seems like Nvidia, it's AMD, it's Q Qualcomm, of course Saudi Arabia, President Trump was there, a lot of announcements and a lot of excitement from investors.

Exactly. Yep, here you got your semiconductor stocks.The Nvidia, a huge pop

there 4% of Nvidia. Well, we have just a man to talk to about chip stocks, including Nvidia and AMD, moving back to on the back of AI deals between Saudi Arabia and US technology firms. For more on the sector, I want to bring in now Patrick Moorhead, founder, CEO, and chief analyst at Moore Insights and Strategy. Patrick, it is great to see you as always, particularly today, Patrick, because you are the man to answer this question. I was just talking to Matty. These moves we're seeing these chip names, Patrick, and of course wePresident Trump in Saudi Arabia. We had this flurry of headlines, reports, AI specific announcements, Nvidia, AMD, Q Qualcomm. You did Patrick on X. You asked an interesting question, I thought, Patrick, off those announcements you asked, listen, are these, are these hard deals, are these hard contracts or more like kind of, you know, soft LOIs, letters of intent? What's, what's your line of sight there, Patrick?

Yeah, so, first of all, the only thing, the only similarity between these AI deals is that they're, they were with Humane and, and the KSA, right? But they were very different, right? AMD was all about a joint venture with a $10 billion price tag, but no details on who's funding what, uh, where would the AMD capitalization come from. So, uh,You know, and, and it's, when the details aren't there, you have to assess that this thing is early in. And then with Nvidia, it was really straightforward, right? They're selling GPUs with a price tag estimated at around $7 billion butStill no firm commitment, no firm order, uh, around that. But with that said, it's very exciting because I don't think investors, uh, were factoring any of this into their thesis is going into this.

You know, Patrick, one question for chip investors, of course, has been whether we kind of hit this, uh, peak in cap X, right? And, and my question to you is, was that question in any way answered by what we just saw in Saudi Arabia? And here's how Bernstein, Stacey Razon, you know, Stacey, uh, here's what he wrote his clients.Said for investors worried about AIAX sustainability, we now have another deep pocketed customer willing and capable to spend large amounts of money on a clearly strategic push as Saudi Arabia attempts to position itself as a regional and global AI hub. Your response to that, Patrick?

Uh, I agree with Stacey, and I view this as incremental upside, right? This wasn't factored into, uh, in, into my calculations in terms of this capex. It was typically we just look at the mag 7, and what they committed to, uh, this was very much not in the mag 7 capital expenditure updates, and it's, it's an upside. One interesting thing though about this isThat, that we're researching right now is, is this potentially going to take away any business out of Western Europe that has put up nearly every blockade to uh drive innovation, AI, and it's not that, uh.Protecting people's information is important. It is, but when they find themselves drastically behind other parts of the world, this could be a move for the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to take market share away from Western Europe.

And Patrick, I love that you bring up the global perspective. This is something I was speaking with Gil Luria about earlier today in regards to China's role in this dynamic here. We were talking about the fact that Bank of America does say that the Saudi deal will offset any restrictions that put a curb on China's ability to increase purchases of chips, but that doesn't seem to be consensus. Gill was telling me there's a concern that more severe China restrictions are still a risk for Nvidia. So where do you net out on that?

So, when it comes to China, right, you have a lot of different camps inside of DC, which is why it looks like there's mixed messages. On one day, you'll have President Trump saying one thing and then you'll have somebody in the cabinet saying something slightly different, and then you'll have a senator who might be a China hawk really lean in. So there's a lot of discussion going on there. I think.Though that the AI diffusion law as it, as it relates to uh the Middle East and Saudi Arabia and Qatar in, in specific, uh, that will disincent that those regions from buying Chinese semiconductors, uh, which I think is a, a net positive, but, but also the restrictions that we were going to put on countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are, are no longer the case.

So Patrick, put a bow on this for me for Nvidia investors, is this rally just the beginning or is this a temporary bounce?

This is likely a temporary bounce, but it's a consistent bounce because it will likely lead to a net revenue and profit upside for Nvidia. I, I still think China is the number one element and region to figure out for some sort of aUh, a big rally, uh, with Nvidia, but we've seen some early softening in, in the tones that, that the administration has, has put out there, and I do believe that if Trump administration can craft a real deal, right, because what we saw.Earlier was a framework for a deal and pulling back to what you, what one of your guests said, which still is the highest tariffs we've ever seen, uh, then we could see even more restrictions being pulled back, uh, on China.

Patrick, I want to end here by drilling down into another name you know very well, which is AMD, making news in Saudi Arabia as well. Strong earnings report. They now announced this share buyback. Just, just talk to me, Patrick about how you see AMD's role in the broader competitive landscape now and looking ahead.

Right. So, AMDs, they're on a roll. I mean, they have record CPU market share at, at around 40%. That still means that ARM and Intel have the other 60%, but they're doing very, very well. And I, I think what investors were looking for was an extra vote of confidence related to their data center GPUs. I did think that they got this with uh the Saudi Arabia deal, the $10 billion dollar joint venture.Uh, but holistically, what they do want to see is they do want to see some more specific numbers from them and a roadmap. I think we are going to get more details on that in a month at AMD's, uh, event in San Francisco.Final comment on the buybacks, the $6 billion buybacks that enables up to $10 billion in total is a vote of confidence from the board of directors that they believe that the company is undervalued, a very good sign.

All right, Patrick, we got to leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us as always. I appreciate yourinsights.

Thanks, Mattie Josh.

Take a look at stocks mixed today after the S&P 500 erased its losses for 2025 as Wall Street continues to debate the state of play on tariffs. For more on the latest market moves, let's welcome in Matt Stuckey, Northwestern Mutual's wealth management chief portfolio.Of equities. Matt, it's always great to speak with you in the notes you sent over, you talked about how peak uncertainty is behind us, but we're not necessarily out of the woods yet. Do you think that the current rally is justified given that there is still some uncertainty in the room?

Well, good afternoon, Matt. Thanks for having me back. Um, look, I think the best way to contextualize this for investors is to kind of look at what causes stock corrections. If you go through history, there's really kind of three main sources. There's a sharp rise in interest rates that causes 10% plus corrections. There's unemployment, unemployment rates moving higher, which causes bear markets. And then there's exogenous factors like the trade war that we have seen in the last few weeks that can also push equities lower.Um, I think if you're characterizing, um, you know, the most recent correction, it is obviously the exogenous factor of a trade war, and it wasn't necessarily interest rates moving higher or unemployment rate moving higher andAgain, you know, we're past the peak of, of kind of uncertainty as it relates to the trade war. You know, we're down, well off the mid-20s tariff rates, which were announced on April 2nd today, you know, they're closer to 12% or so, which is still a headwind, which kind of goes to your earlier point you made about not necessarily being out of the woods yet, but it's much less severe, which is why you've kind of seen this violent V-shaped recovery.

Matt, how would you broadly characterize valuations here, you know, stretched, fairly valued? How are you thinking about it?

You know, I, I think if we're just talking about the S&P 500 on a cap weighted basis, you have to kind of characterize things as somewhat stretched, and the reason I say that.Uh, if you're looking at kind of a forward outlook for earnings for the S&P 500, we think over the next 12 months investors are broadly talking about roughly $275 a share. that underwrites, you know, you know, 11 12% growth or so from this starting point with the ongoing headwinds of what, what trade looks like.And against that 275 number, you know, the market's trading 21.5 times 4. That's a very full valuation, especially in the context of rising treasury yields, which just passed over 4.5% today.

So valuations look a little hot in the United States. Do you continue to ride that end of US exceptionalism trade and look at something like the MSCI?

Look, I mean, I think the US is relative to other markets, you know, an attractive place to invest and will remain an attractive place to invest. However, it's a global landscape, and what you are being asked to pay for equity investments outside the United States is significantly less. So we just talked about how the S&P 500 is trading, you know, 21.5, let's call it for 12 month earnings.Look outside the United States, that number is 14.5. Uh, now, you're underwriting a lower growth rate, uh, which is, uh, which, you know, is, is going to disappoint some investors, but again, the price difference is somewhat dramatic.

What, what'sthe Fed's role here, Matt? What do you see ahead for JPal?

Look, I mean, I think that you have to look at both sides of the mandate. On the, on the labor side of things, um, things are continue to be somewhat resilient. You know, we're at 4.2% or so on the unemployment rates. Wages are 3.5% plus, uh, but on the price side, things have been slower moving to kind of move back down to 2%, and there's the uncertainty in front of us thatYou know, as inventories are replenished through higher scheduled tariff rates, there'll be upward pressure on inflation over the summer. And so I think the Fed's taking a wait and see approach given that labor markets are holding firm. But if you look at just the last 3 months of CPI reports, and we got the latest one yesterday.Your core CPI, if you analyze that out over the last three months, was at 2.1%. So heading into this, we're in a good place, I think, in terms of if we don't see this big move up in prices over the summer, um, that the Fed can start to normalize back down to their R, let's call it 3.5% or so.

Love to bring up the Rar Matt. I do want to end with you on a little bit of portfolio diversification because bonds, the drag on your portfolio until they're the thing that saves your portfolio for our chart of the day. We have a bar chart showing how bonds can protect your portfolio in the event of a recession here. How much bond exposure should you recommend investors have right now?

Look, I mean, I think everybody's allocation is different depending on their overall goals and objective and time horizon, but let's say, you know, you're, you're a mixed investor, half in equities, half in fixed income.We actually recommend a little bit more fixed income above and beyond your target, and the reason being is simply return skew. Um, you know, right now with the 450 10 year, let's call it shock interest rates up or down 100 basis points, and look at what happens over the next year in terms of total return. Well, if, if interest rates go up 100 basis points, you know, you're down roughly 2.5%, but if they go down 100 basis.Points you're up roughly 12%. And so the risk return skew there to us is attractive. And we walked through some of the stretch valuation in the equity space. If that were to reprice, we do think bonds offer some attractive diversification characteristics for a portfolio in that in that case.

So maybe 60 to 40, but in the other direction. Matt, thank you so much. Really appreciate you joining us today.We're just getting started here on market domination. Coming up, markets digesting the US and China's 90 day trade truce. One economist saying Armageddon has been avoided. We're going to break down the latest on the other side and at 3:45 Eastern, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joining the show from Capitol Hill to discuss what's next for potential stablecoin legislation. Stick around. Much more market domination still to come.Markets digesting the US and China's 90 day trade truce. Joining us now is Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University's Paul Sy China Center, and Greg E, chief economics commentator, deputy economics editor at The Wall Street Journal. Thank you both for joining us this.Afternoon Stephen, I want to start with you. Obviously these are negotiations and not deals. The stock market may be trading like they're deals, but they're still negotiations. What do you think is the likelihood of the final deal between the US and China looking like this truce, this negotiation?

Well, I don't think we have any idea right now. I think it's clear that um the president has umUh, flinched, blinked, whatever you wanna call it, uh, relative to the outrageously high, uh, tariffs he had slapped on, uh, in China in a fit of anger after China dared to retaliate from, uh, liberation Day. But, um, you know, I, I think, uh, uh, there's certainly, uh, good grounds for the, the US, uh, continuing to put more pressure on China through higher tariffs.Then it will for other trading partners. This is a mistaken view, uh, from my perspective because the, the idea of um imposing a bilateral, uh, penalty on one nation to try to bring down a large multilateral trade deficit with over 100 nations just, just won't work, but that's the mindset that prevails.Uh, in the Trump administration and in Washington is, is large. So you know, I think you can certainly look for China if, if Trump settles on 10%, um, universal tariffs and, you know, uh, for the, the world as a whole, he's gonna hit China with more than that.

Greg, I wanna bring you in here as well. Title your column this week, Greg, which I read, uh, Trump's China deal makes sense how he got here doesn't. Walk us through that, Greg. What do you mean?

Well, at the end of the day, we're ending up when you include the tariffs that uh Trump inherited from the uh previous years, uh, you add the 20% tariff that was added for fentanyl, and now the 10% reciprocal tariff, the effective tariff once you account for all the various exemptions, is about 39%. That's really high. I mean, it's a lot.Highest tariff we've ever had on China, the highest tariff we've had on anybody for a very long time, and it looks like it'll be much higher than any other country has, and I think that's appropriate. I think most people, uh, on both sides of the aisle think it's appropriate that China is not like any other country, that it is a geop political adversary. It doesn't play fair on trade. It discriminates against Western.companies and it has, uh, it wants its national champions to dominate technology. It makes sense to treat China worse. But the way we got here doesn't make any sense at all. I mean, to take the start at 34, go to 145, drop it at 10%, and drop it to 10%. That's just the.reciprocal piece I should say and get nothing in return for dropping it to 10. I think kind of really sort of like to raise questions about just the quality of Trump's deal making and you know, whether there's any internal rationale to any of what he's been doing.

Greg, I wanna just bounce one argument off you because I'm just interested to get your thoughts on it. The way it's framed right now by a lot of folks is that Trump retreated, and, and maybe he did.But it was interesting. My buddy John Carney makes another point, and John pointed out, and I want to get your take on this. Maybe it's not a retreat, John says. Maybe it's a pause. It's more like a strategic pause is John's point. And he Trump takes these 90 days, Greg, and he'll try to punch through these other measures, punch through.Tax cuts and deregulation, he lets Besson keep playing the role of sort of, you know, good cop, but if Trump doesn't get what he wants and Xi does not deliver what he would consider material concessions, maybe Trump comes hitting right back and and reimposes tariff escalation. What do you think about that argument?

Uh, listen, like Steve, I have no idea what's gonna happen over the next 90 days. Um, I think that where we are today is probably a pretty good, uh, bet on where we end up. But sure, I think, negotiations could break down and tariffs could go back up. But just because, uh, there's more to come doesn't mean it makes sense to how we got here. There's nothing that could have stopped the president from just starting at 10% if that's where he wanted to end up, and then ratcheting it from there instead of effectively doing the opposite.Um, therefore, conveying the image, whatever you think of the reality that he capitulated.

And Stephen, I want to bring you back into the conversation because to the point that Greg is making one of the key questions from the investors on Wall Street who I talked to, they just want to understand what the goal was of these tariffs in the first place so that they can have a framework for thinking about the administration's moves going forward. Where have you gotten clarity on the administration's specific goals when it comes to trade deals with China?

Well, first of all, I have to say I get much more clarity over the years in reading Greg I and the Wall Street Journal than I do from reading, uh, the policy statements from the, um, uh, the White House. Um, but, uh, his, you know, his point on, you know, how we got there is, you know, absolutely critical and, um, you know, the, the message is not inUh, the actions that President Trump has taken, but in this sort of strange philosophical view that he has, uh, uh, addressed that, um, America's been ripped off for decades, and we're gonna put a price tag on the rip-off in the form of these 10%, uh, minimum or universal tariffs.As he uh calls it, and that is the price that we're gonna charge the rest of the world, uh, for taking advantage of us. And, you know, that is, is a really high price relative to the tariff rates that have been, um, that we've been running over the last 30 years, which if you look at,Uh, the numbers put together by a group at Yale, the Yale Budget Lab, our effective territory for the rest of the world has been a little less than 2% over the past 30 years. So we're gonna go from 2 to 10%. That's a 5-fold increase, uh, that's a huge tax on our companies and on our trading partners and not without significant impacts on the broader, uh, global economy.So there's, you know, not a whole lot of strategic wisdom, uh, in, in this approach in my view. Kevin, I want to bring you back.

Can I just, uh, like say how much I agree with what Steve just said? I can make a case for why we should have a 39% tariff on China. I cannot make a case for why we have a 10% tariff on Great Britain. I mean, in fact, if you look at the actual underlying rationale, the 10% tariff.On China is the same as the 10% tariff on Great Britain as part of the reciprocal tariff action announced on April 2nd. What was the purpose of that action? Supposedly we were going to punish countries that were running unacceptably large trade surpluses with us. China is a geopolitical adversary with a huge surplus with us. Britain is a stalwart ally, our best ally with a trade deficit.With us and they both get 10%. I mean, what message does this send to the world about how the United States picks its friends? Well,

Greg, it's a great point, but before we let you go, I want to get a sense of how this impacts the consumer. Kevin Gordon, which Charles Schwab was telling me earlier this week that we could actually see a bigger pass through of inflation.Of costs to consumers with this lowered potential tariff rate because companies are more willing to pass on a 39% rate than they were a potential 145% rate. Greg, how do you view that? Are consumers going to feel inflation more even if some of these tariffs are negotiated down?

It's definitely the case that 145%, which Treasury Secretary Besson said was like an embargo level, trade just comes to a halt, so nobody pays that tariff. So, however, if we compare today with where we were, say, on January 20th, yes, at some point these tariffs will pass through to consumers. They will pay this. Now, how big will that affect?that part is very hard to say, and I will say in fairness that the April CPI data that we got just a couple of days ago shows that the pass through from tariffs so far, it's there, but it's small, so maybe it will not be perhaps the economy wrecker that a lot of us were worried about a month or two ago.

Stephen, Greg, great to see both of you today. Thank you so much.Thank you.Coming up, airlines have been signaling caution with several pulling or revising their full year outlooks on macroeconomic uncertainty. I'm going to speak to an expert on the other side about the current state of the industry. Stick around. Much more market domination still to come.Airlines have been signaling caution with several pulling or revising their full year outlooks on macroeconomic uncertainty. International travel spending in the United States is expected to decline $12.5 billion in 2025. That's according to the World Travel and Tourism Council. Adding on to demand worries we know are the safety concerns, since in the past two weeks.to air traffic control at Newark Airport has raised worries over the safety of flying. For more on what this all means for travel and major airlines, we have Third Bridge Global head of sector and analysts Peter McNally here. Peter, it is good to see you as always. So start big picture, Peter, summer travel season, it's here. What's coming, Peter? What are your expectations?

Well, I mean, the expectations across the board have been lowered, but they're still OK. You know, the safety issues have come up in the past and they've tended to be short-lived. Uh, I'm not really sure, you know, how long the, uh, the issues in Newark are, are going to go on, but United has been pretty emphatic that, uh, it is safe to fly.Um, you know, that's a, the, the underlying demand for the industry is pretty healthy. I think airlines have been proactive in managing their capacity. Uh, so pricing just, you know, remains pretty good. Um, there's not like too many seats out there putting downward pressure at this point from, from what we can see, and I think people are gearing up for a good summer.

Well, talk to me about that because some of the sources I've talked to Peter have said the opposite. There are concerns about all of this trade war headlines hurting international travel, particularly to the United States, which is obviously a potential headwind for some of these big airlines. Then you've also got the safety challenges and then if we can pull up our CPI numbers, you also have airline fares coming down a touch. Which of those headwinds I just mentioned is the most concerning to you as we head into the summer.

Well, I, I think that the international travel is more impactful, let's say, to a British Airways or a Lufthansa than it is for a Delta or United. Those, those concerns more Europeans coming here than it is for Americans going, going to Europe, where like, that's 80% roughly of Delta's, you know, clients are, are the US traveler.Heading overseas. Um, and there really hasn't been a slowdown from anything we've seen out of the result on that yet. Um, but it is, it is something that, um, that, that we're watching. Now, fares, you know, coming off a bit, they're, they're manageable, you know, at this point. Uh, I would also add that, uh, fuel prices coming down do offer a little margin relief for, you know, for these airlines thatThey, they can offer a little bit of a discount, um, at this point, but they, but they are taking some of the plane capacity out of themarket.

Peter, I'm looking at oil here, Sub 63. What does that mean for the airlines you cover?

Yeah, it's healthy. Um, now, look, the oil being in 63 is really about supply. It's not about demand. And if anything, demand year to date for oil has surprised to the upside. It's just there is an excess amount of inventory coming out of theUnited States, or let me say supply rather than inventory, uh, from, yeah, the United States, even OPEC plus, uh, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, um, it's just outpacing demand, which has been pretty healthy so far. But you know, the thing is about the oil price and airlines, it treats them all the same. Uh, it's not a real differentiator. Nobody has, uh, any, any special prices that they're getting as a result. It's just good for the consumer.

That's that's really helpful context, Peter. Talk to me then if the oil is going to be the same across the board for everybody, if the travel demand is going to be the same, then what's the key differentiator which airline do you think is going to be the big winner for the summer when we have we have you back on this fall to askyou?

Sure, I think the, you know, the two winners at least talking to our.Experts are gonna be united in Delta. And, and they have two things that really stand out. Uh, number one is a premium product which people are willing to pay more for their higher margin clients. Now, everyone is chasing them, even from Southwest and JetBlue are trying to offer these products, but they are way, way, way behind. The second thing that they offer is loyalty, and you know, this is one of the factors that led to the ultimate bankruptcy at Spirit.You know, and the difficulties with the low-cost carriers, and that people are willing to pay 50 to $75 more to fly on Delta or United because of their loyalty program than they are on Southwest or some other budget carrier.And uh that's made a big difference, you know, in, in, in the marketplace. At the same time, you know, small carriers have had uh their costs increased faster across the board, um, than the major carriers. So, United and Delta are the two that our experts like the most.

Peter, always great to have you on the show. Thank you, sir.

Good to see you.

Well, the uncertainty of market direction has investors doing a double take at the options market. US options exchanges have seen record daily volumes with one strategy that's been gaining interest among traders, mumu, do I have that right, Neil? Did I do that? Mumuio, Neil McDonald.Joins us now for the options pit sponsored by Tasty Trade Neil, uh, maybe start big picture viewers they're listening at home right now. They're thinking, you know, what are the smart options strategies as as indices now approach these new all-time highs? What would you tell them?

Yeah, I mean, it's been obviously a very volatile month. I, I think when you see the VIX hit 60, um, it attracts, for us, it attracts lots of our active traders. You know, you have S&P being 10% high to low intraday, that really brings, um, our active, more professional traders. Um, it kind of may have scared off, that kind of volt scares off some more uh tactical.Traders we saw lots of um calendar selling, which is selling the front month by the second month, but as that's normalized, and I said I was here 3 months ago and the S&P is exactly where it was 3 months ago, so as if nothing happened in the middle, guys, um.So as the skew is normalized, that's been fixed down at 18 and the S&P being up on the year, given the uncertainty going forward, we've seen what's happened in the past month, both the huge rally after the inauguration, the sell off from, from Feb, the rally back the sell off from from Liberation Day.If you're looking to protect your portfolio, given skews normalized, given Vols come down so far from its peak back on the 18th of April, it's probably a good time to think about um protecting your portfolio with some 36, 12 month puts. Mm.

Talk to me then about the year to date snapback and just the record breaking. I think it was the fastest snapback since 1982. It feels like this moment is the Super Bowl for options traders because of the volatility, but how should investors be thinking about risk in this moment as well?

It's certainly been the Super Bowl for options exchanges, obviously make money just on volume.I think short gamma was a big, the, the, the, the, the huge intraday move you saw, I think one of the largest S&P moves last month, uh, intraday, uh, almost 10+%, um.I think a lot of the market makers were short volatility and that's a lot of clients trading these shorter day to zero TTE options and uh if you get taken out of gamma in a one day option, there's not a lot, there's not a lot of places you can go to cover that as a market maker. And so I think they've made money by being short the zero DTs most of the year. I think they got caught and they exacerbated the moves to the upside and then the moves to the downside.

Neil Vick's under 20 here, where do you think we head to next? You're going back to low teens, what do you think?

Yeah, I think, I think resist sorry, support is 15.5. Um, I, I, I think momentum is, you know, is sometimes the opposite of value, so we may overshoot to the downside, but the risks are still there. These aren't trade deals, they're trade negotiations. Uh, it, it seems that um.Not just intraday news, but postmarket news, you get lots of opening market gaps which we haven't seen for a while. um so it it's, I think the market is still volatile. I think buying options to certainly to protect, um, at this level is uh is sensible and certainly economically makes sense, more so than it did 2 or 3 weeks ago when.When the front month was really, really elevated, so

yeah, and you mentioned something I wanna follow up on. You talked about how market makers sometimes when they're caught offsides they can exacerbate moves both to downside and to the upside and something I think we all want to know right now is whether or not there are.Any hedges going on in this market that are exacerbating the moves to the upside, what are you looking at to suss out how real this current rally is?

So you look at the open interest and around this level you've seen the real dampened activity the last 4 or 5 trading days where we have a huge 25 million person community at Momo.And uh it's very active, so I look at the SPY in every day and everyone's putting up the trading ideas. A lot of our shorter term traders um express frustration that it hasn't moved, that we, we've hit a section of the market where the market makes a long gamma. So the past two expirations it's been pinned into, into one strike and very little movement. We had the decent sell-off yesterday, um.But I, I, I think there's been an equalization in, in the gamma profiles between the, the, the, the retail owners of the very short-term zero DTEs and the market makers.

Neil, always great to see you, especially on set. Thank you, sir. Thank

you very much, guys, my pleasure.

And coming up, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joined the program to discuss what's next for potential stablecoin legislation. Stick around, much more market domination still to come.

Coin-based stocks surged nearly 24% Tuesday as Wall Street cheered the inclusion of the first and only crypto exchange in the S&P 500. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schomburger standing by on Capitol Hill with more. Hi Jennifer.

Hi Maddie, this afternoon I caught up with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to talk about his company's inclusion into the S&P 500, as well as that Senate stablecoin bill that failed in the Senate last week. Armstrong telling me he's actually.Optimistic about the prospects for the bill and thinks that it could see a revote as soon as this week. We kicked off the conversation talking about what the inclusion of Coinbase means for the S&P 500 and for the crypto industry at large. Take a listen. Yeah, well, Coinbase joining the S&P 500 means crypto is here to stay. It's going to be in everybody's 401k. um, everyone's gonna have crypto exposure, you know, at least indirectly through Coinbase, which is great and.It's also a symbol that crypto is updating the financial system, right? We actually launched our own coin 50 index, which is the top 50 coins by market cap. I hope someday companies are going to graduate and getting in that index will feel as good as it feels for us getting in the S&P 500. And today is sand with crypto Day. You're here on Capitol Hill.We've been speaking with lawmakers at a time when the stablegoing bill in the Senate seems to have hit a roadblock. What are you hearing on that? Do you think this bill can be resurrected? Could we see passage on this bill? Yes, I'm actually pretty optimistic this bill can get done. There's a lot of urgency on both sides of the aisle to see this come to fruition.There's 52 million Americans who own crypto. They elected representatives in this last election. They showed up in a big way that they want to see this legislation happen, and I think the Senate realizes that. So there's like any good negotiation, you know, there's always a debate at the last minute about what the language is and the details really matter to get this right. I can get into some specifics if you want, but we've been meeting with folks on both sides and underscoring the urgency of how important it is to get this legislation passed here in America. What are you hearing that could see you could see change basically in this legislation that we get it.Yeah, well, there's a couple nuanced points. I mean, one area that I've talked about publicly is that I don't think there should be any sort of prohibition on paying interest or yield on stablecoin assets. You know, the banks, I think, should have to compete on a level playing field. There's concerns out there about, you know, what will this do to credit markets.There's already high, high yield checking accounts, and this is not something novel and crypto can offer lending solutions as well, so we believe that, you know, the government shouldn't really be doing protectionism for one industry versus another. They should publish clear rules and have a level playing field for competition.Another example would be, you know, AML laws are very important, and today crypto intermediaries like exchanges like us are regulated under those, but we want to make sure that the AML laws don't get dramatically expanded to include non-financial services like DFI protocols, and so that was an important discussion point for that bill as well. But I think it's heading toward a positive language that both sides probably have to always feel like they give something up in a good negotiation.But from what I'm hearing, there seems to be a consensus forming, and I'm hopeful that this vote will happen maybe tomorrow or early next week. All right, we'll have to talk to lawmakers on that front. I wonder though, you mentioned the banks. If banks are able to create their own stable coins, what are the implications there? Do you have any concerns? No, we think everybody should be able to create stablecoins. We think that crypto is a technology to update the financial system, and we want every bank, fintech company, every company to be.It's really exciting actually seeing the adoption of stablecoins and payments recently. USDC has seen incredible. It's the fastest growing large stablecoin in the world right now, and we're building products and services that power B2B payments where it dramatically lowers the time and the cost for businesses to just participate in the economy. So we actually think that the majority of all payments in the economy at some point will be running on stablecoin.And, and let's talk about what that means in terms of the future for your company, but before that I was curious if I could get a bit of clarification on a couple of weeks ago we heard from one of the spokespeople at your company that uh banking license was under active consideration. Then on the earnings call you said that wasn't really an idea you wanted to pursue. So could you clarify whether Coinbase is looking to adopt a banking license or not?Yeah, well, in the current drafts of the legislation again, I mean, we haven't seen the final text, and so we don't know exactly how it's going to turn out, but the current drafts that we believe will be there aren't going to require us to have any kind of banking license. So at this time we don't have any need to or desire to pursue that. But obviously if something were to change in the law we could always consider that. And like you said, just laying the groundwork here with this new legislation and the market structure legislation that's also under consideration.In the house, what do you see as the future for Coinbase? What are the big goals going forward? I know you mentioned, um, becoming an all things to all people financial services provider as you get into seeing this uh platform evolve and sort of connecting with all of the various, um, opportunities for crypto, how early are you in the innings here?It's still very early. I mean, we, our long term goal is we want to be the largest financial service app in the world. We want to do that for retail customers, also for businesses, for institutions, for developers who are integrating this into their applications. So we serve different customer segments and we're doing this now in about 100 different countries. We're working a lot of international expansion so our our long term thesis is that crypto is eating financial services and we're going to be the leader in crypto.And back to the proceedings here on Capitol Hill. When it comes to that market structure bill, what are you hearing on that front? What's your message to lawmakers there? What do you really want to see from that bill? Yeah, well, a lot of focus right now is on stablecoin just because that's the moment that we're in, but we've underscored to them that we think the market structure bill is actually even more important because stablecoins are great, but they're really just a small piece of what is happening in crypto. The key part of the market structure bill in my mind is that.It's actually helping clarify which of these assets are commodities and which are securities. That was the big thing that was unclear in the past that got weaponized against the industry in my view. And so if we have that CFTC spot market authority for commodities, that will be a huge piece of clarity. And then we also believe there should be a path to register crypto securities for people who want to raise money to start a company to, you know, create a piece of real estate like an apartment complex or to make a movie or a film or something.We want to actually build products and services that help people register a cryptocur and raise money like capital formation could be much more efficient in the global economy with crypto rails, but we need regulatory clarity to go do that. And before I let you go now we have a new SEC chair in place, Paul Atkins. Have you spoken to him? Have you spoken to the SEC now? How are they helping you under this new administration lay out the groundwork for regulatory clarity that you're looking for to do what you need to do.Yeah, well, so far the SEC has been very thoughtful on this. We've met with the SEC task force several times to discuss things like how might tokenized securities come into effect and get these other asset classes on chain, and Paul Atkins is somebody who I've met with in the past, looking forward to spend more time with him now that he's confirmed, but, um, from what I've seen, he's going to be very thoughtful and constructive on these issues. Brian, thank you so much as always for your insight, so appreciate it. Thank you.And we are hearing on Capitol Hill today that we could be getting amended text on that stable going bill sometime today. You heard Armstrong tell me in the tape that we could be getting a vote on that legislation as soon as this week. The Republican aide telling me that discussions are ongoing and if those leaks are coming from the Democratic.That is leagues of optimism for a vote this week then it's hopeful that they could be narrowing um the interest on a potential amendment. Perhaps we could get over that hump here in the next near future back to

you Jennifer fantastic interview great job bringing us that conversation really appreciate it. Thank you.

Thank you so much

Matt.One of the biggest voices on Wall Street, Ray Dalio, out with Bridgewater's Q1 portfolio. It's 13F filing season. We learned the largest buys for Bridgewater in terms of stocks. Alibaba, you've also got Gold, Baidu, and Palo Alto Networks. It did cut its position in the S&P 500 ETF. According to analysts, some really interesting stuff here. When we get these 13F filings, it gives you kind of a playbook and some of the most successful hedge funds. So that's why we pay.So much attention to it. Taking a look at some sector action here. They're waiting in healthcare fell the most over the quarter here. They're boosted their weightings and financials more than any other industry. It looks like right now they have almost as much in financials as they do in technology, which is interesting, and I thought that trim in the S&P 500 couldn't be ignored that we should mention still about 8.7% of assets.

Yeah, I thought gold was interesting too because obviously we know it has glittered this year, plenty of.Bulls on the show recently though, US-China trade trade truce that is, you know, I obviously boosted risk assets that may reduce the medal's appeal for Bloomberg, it actually slipped here lowest level in more than a month, but Bridgeir thinking it is still a smart investment. All right, while we are wrapping up today's market domination, don't go anywhere. We've got you covered all the action following the losing bell, including the late earnings reports from Cisco and Corn. Will you stay tuned for market domination overnight.