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The news this weekend that T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint (S) will merge in a $26 billion all-stock deal was met with skepticism about whether regulators will sign off on a transaction that combines America’s third- and fourth-largest wireless providers.
For one thing, the Trump administration is already fighting a merger involving a major telecom, AT&T (T), which is buying entertainment giant Time Warner (TWX). Unlike the AT&T/Time Warner deal, the T-Mobile/Sprint deal would marry two direct competitors — and it may remind regulators of another proposed telecom deal that got crushed.
“Whatever arguments these parties make will be received with AT&T/T-Mobile in memory,” said Christopher Sagers, an antitrust expert and professor at Cleveland-Marshall College of Law, referring to AT&T’s decision in 2011 to abandon its deal to buy T-Mobile amid opposition from the Obama administration.
At the time, Sprint also filed a suit to block the proposed merger of its rivals, dubbing it “brazenly anti-competitive.” As Eleanor Fox, an antitrust expert at New York University Law School, noted in an email to Yahoo Finance, “Sprint has to be careful that it is not contradicting anything it said in its lawsuit to stop AT&T/T-Mobile.”
‘T-Mobile actually thrived quite nicely’
When announcing the merger, T-Mobile CEO John Legere, who would remain CEO under a combined company called T-Mobile, said the deal would benefit consumers by allowing for the creation of a nationwide 5G network. Neither company would be able to do this on its own, he contends.
This argument could very well appeal to antitrust regulators, according to George Hay, an antitrust expert and professor at Cornell Law School. “In a network industry … it’s pretty easy to see why the density of the network really does make a big difference,” said Hay, noting that T-Mobile and Sprint could argue that the deal would allow them to provide better coverage for consumers and better compete against AT&T and Verizon (Verizon is the parent company of Yahoo Finance).
Memories of the scuttled AT&T/T-Mobile deal could still loom large while regulators scrutinize this deal, according to Sagers. In August 2011, Obama’s Justice Department sued to block that deal and contended that it would harm consumers by eliminating a low-cost competitor. In fighting the DOJ lawsuit, AT&T pointed out that T-Mobile had lost subscribers despite an increased demand for wireless services — a suggestion that T-Mobile might continue to flounder on its own.
But that reality wasn’t borne out, Sagers noted. “It was widely perceived following that experience that T-Mobile actually thrived quite nicely after that merger was rejected, and provided serious competition to the other major firms,” Sagers said.