In This Article:
Allied Gold Corporation (TSE:AAUC) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$346m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 73%, coming in at just US$0.04 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Allied Gold after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Allied Gold's six analysts is for revenues of US$1.23b in 2025. This reflects a major 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Allied Gold forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.68 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.24b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.73 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for Allied Gold
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$8.62, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Allied Gold, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$12.07 and the most bearish at CA$5.81 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Allied Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 51% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 33% over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Allied Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.