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As you might know, Ameresco, Inc. (NYSE:AMRC) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. The results overall were pretty good, with revenues of US$353m exceeding expectations and statutory losses coming in at justUS$0.10 per share, some 62% below what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ameresco's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$1.88b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 26% to US$0.77 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.74 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Ameresco's earnings potential following these results.
View our latest analysis for Ameresco
The average the analysts price target fell 6.8% to US$20.50, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Ameresco, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ameresco's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ameresco.