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It's been a pretty great week for Alvotech (NASDAQ:ALVO) shareholders, with its shares surging 18% to US$9.68 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in at US$133m, an impressive 40% ahead of analyst forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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After the latest results, the five analysts covering Alvotech are now predicting revenues of US$646.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 9.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 14% to US$0.28 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$642.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the considerable lift to earnings per share expectations following these results.
See our latest analysis for Alvotech
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$18.00, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alvotech at US$28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alvotech's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 83% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alvotech.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Alvotech following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Alvotech's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.