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Shareholders in Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 10% to US$32.78 in the last 7 days. Could this upgrade be enough to drive the stock even higher?
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Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Ionis Pharmaceuticals from its 23 analysts is for revenues of US$748m in 2025 which, if met, would be a modest 4.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$3.02 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$656m and losses of US$3.83 per share in 2025. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Ionis Pharmaceuticals
Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$57.31, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Ionis Pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.8% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 3.8% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% per year. Although Ionis Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Ionis Pharmaceuticals' prospects. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling, but with a serious upgrade to this year's earnings expectations, it might be time to take another look at Ionis Pharmaceuticals.