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Aterian, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATER) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.1% to US$2.76 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$26m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Aterian losing US$0.25 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Aterian
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Aterian is for revenues of US$103.1m in 2025. This implies a measurable 3.9% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$1.71. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$103.5m and US$2.24 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Aterian'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very promising decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.
Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 43% to US$8.50. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Aterian analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aterian is expected to lag the wider industry.