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There's been a notable change in appetite for AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 11% to US$19.68. Revenues came in 82% better than analyst models expected, at US$28mwhile statutory losses per share were US$1.28, in line with forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering AnaptysBio provided consensus estimates of US$60.3m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a stressful 46% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$5.40. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$48.5m and US$5.19 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts lifting this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share numbers to reflect the cost of achieving this growth.
See our latest analysis for AnaptysBio
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$37.82, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AnaptysBio at US$57.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 56% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AnaptysBio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.