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Air cargo demand out of the Asia Pacific region into the U.S. is re-escalating to pre-Lunar New Year levels even as tariffs on Chinese imports take shape and changes are anticipated for de minimis rules.
On a two-week basis, Asia Pacific-to-U.S. chargeable weight jumped 10 percent, according to data from WorldACD. The trade lane saw a 5 percent increase in rates during the period to $5.16 per kilogram, marking the largest rate increase across all regional routes.
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When narrowing down to China, its route to the U.S. recorded a second consecutive week of double-digit percentage increases (12 percent from the week prior) to $4.53 per kilogram. This marks the second-highest price level this year, only to the rate in the first week of 2025.
Cargo demand from the Asia Pacific to Europe increased 11 percent from two weeks prior, the largest of any regional increase, with rates increasing 3 percent.
Air cargo demand out of the APAC region is seeing its sixth successive week-over-week increase since the Lunar New Year, driven by growth from South Korea (13 percent), Vietnam (6 percent), Hong Kong (5 percent) and China (2 percent).
Routes out of the Asia Pacific are carrying global demand for air cargo. Worldwide flown chargeable weight has decreased 1 percent week to week, and increased just 2 percent on a two-week-over-two-week basis.
WorldACD calculates its data based on more than 500,000 transactions per week.
Global air cargo demand is expected to continue to outpace supply in the long run, according to Kuehne + Nagel.
The Swiss freight forwarding giant projects the air freight sector to grow by 3 percent from 2025 to 2028, outpacing the 1 percent expected increase in the global freighter fleet during that time.
“Given the anticipated volatility that everybody has been talking about in trade patterns, the need for reliable air freight services will remain crucial to maintain a resilient supply chain,” said Yngve Ruud, executive vice president of air logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, during the company’s capital markets day on Tuesday. “
On the supply side, Ruud noted that the use of freighter capacity is already high and would come under further pressure as fleets age and capacity shifts to new trade lanes.
“The phase out of aging widebody freighters will create a gap in the large widebody segment,” said Ruud. “In recent years, approximately 4 percent of the fleet in service has been phased out. We anticipate this rate will increase to 5 percent to 6 percent over the next few years due to the rise of average age of the global fleet.”