AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) is helping shape the future of global internet connectivity through its ambitious satellite-based technology. With the potential to expand reliable internet access to remote and underserved regions, support growing government contracts, and meet the rising demands of data connectivity across industries, satellite internet is emerging as a transformative force in communications (and the stock market).
The market for satellite internet is projected to grow rapidly, with analysts estimating it could reach $24.6 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 30%. ASTS stock is following this trend, recording a surging 14% gain over the past week and a 47% gain year-to-date.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock price history year-to-date
What sets ASTS apart is its goal to connect standard, unmodified smartphones directly to satellites—unlike competitors such as SpaceX’s Starlink, which requires proprietary equipment, or Amazon’s (AMZN) Project Kuiper, which focuses on fixed installations. If successful, ASTS could dramatically improve connectivity for billions of people, especially in regions where only about 34% of the Earth currently has cellular coverage.
The company has made notable progress toward key technical and operational milestones and holds sufficient capital to support its near-term plans. While ASTS remains a speculative investment at this stage, I believe its long-term potential is significant and view the upside as compelling.
Game-Changing Technology Meets Market Demand
AST SpaceMobile’s direct-to-smartphone approach requires no special hardware or apps, which could be a game-changing development. This technology could unlock massive markets, particularly in developing countries where traditional internet infrastructure is limited.
The company plans to launch five satellites over the next six to nine months, starting with its first Block 2 BlueBird satellite in July 2025. If these launches proceed smoothly, ASTS could begin generating meaningful revenue from both government contracts and commercial partnerships in short order.
Manufacturing is another potential key advantage. The company aims to build the capability to produce six satellites per month by late 2025, which would enable rapid network expansion once the technology is proven in orbit.
Execution is Critical
AST SpaceMobile is still in its early stages, burning through cash as it builds its satellite network. The company reported revenue of just $718,000 for Q1 2025, falling well short of the $4 million that analysts expected. The company also reported a net loss of $45.7 million, which is significantly wider than the loss it incurred in the previous year.
However, the spacefarer has significantly strengthened its financial position, raising over $500 million in recent funding rounds. With $874 million in cash on hand and manageable debt levels, ASTS has enough runway to execute its plans for at least the next 12 months.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) balance sheet showing assets, liabilities and debt-to-assets
Management is projecting dramatic revenue growth with a projected second-half 2025 revenue of $50 million to $75 million. Of course, these projections depend entirely on the successful launch of its satellites and the activation of commercial services, highlighting the crucial role execution plays in the company’s near-term success.
Market Risks for the ASTS Bullish Thesis
AST SpaceMobile is ambitiously pushing the boundaries of satellite communications, but that journey (like so many novel technologies) comes with inherent risks that investors should carefully weigh. As AST seeks to fill the gaps of global connectivity, its success hinges on flawless execution. Any hiccup in launching its satellites or deploying its technology could trigger a swift adverse reaction in the share price.
The company also faces competition from established titans like SpaceX and Amazon’s Blue Origin. For AST to carve out a niche, swift market penetration is crucial to avoid being eclipsed by these well-resourced rivals.
Further, establishing a global satellite network involves securing approvals from numerous countries. The layers of bureaucracy, red tape, and regulatory compliance that the company must navigate could slow its expansion timeline.
Finally, the path to building a satellite network comes with a hefty price tag. The company is likely to need to raise additional capital in the future, which could result in the dilution of existing shares.
Sustained Positive Momentum for ASTS
The company has recently won several government contracts, including a $43 million deal with the U.S. Space Development Agency, which provides revenue visibility and validates the technology’s potential.
Meanwhile, members of the Blue Origin management team visited the AST headquarters in Texas recently, sparking speculation of a potential partnership with Amazon. While nothing has been confirmed, such a partnership could provide ASTS with additional resources and credibility.
TipRanks currently rates AST SpaceMobile as a Strong Buy, based on the consensus of five analyst recommendations. The stock carries an average price target of $38.60, suggesting a potential upside of 24% over the next twelve months.
AST SpaceMobile has caught Wall Street’s attention. In a recent report by Scotiabank’s Andres Coello, ASTS has been given a Buy rating, along with a price target of $45.40. Coello noted speculation surrounding potential interest from Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, especially after a recent Instagram post hinted at possible collaborations with Blue Origin.
Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald’s Colin Canfield has reiterated an Overweight rating with a $30 price target, highlighting the company is nearing its full-year revenue guidance for the first time, backed by constructive updates on satellite deployment and defense equipment bookings. He notes optimism surrounding the company’s strategic moves, despite an anticipated rise in deployment costs.
AST SpaceMobile and the Race for Satellite Internet
AST SpaceMobile is at the forefront of next-generation global connectivity. The market opportunity is significant, and the underlying technology holds considerable promise. That said, the company faces a range of challenges, including technical hurdles, funding requirements, regulatory complexities, and intense competition.
This investment may not be appropriate for all investors. Still, for those with a higher risk tolerance, ASTS offers exposure to potentially game-changing innovation in the rapidly expanding satellite internet sector.
With the satellite internet revolution approaching, I remain optimistic about AST SpaceMobile’s potential to play a leading role in shaping its future.
