Calculating The Fair Value Of Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:SWKS)

Casey Hall

Updated Mon, Sep 24, 2018, 6:32 AM

Does the share price for Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:SWKS) reflect it’s really worth? Today, I will calculate the stock’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in September 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.

Check out our latest analysis for Skyworks Solutions

The calculation

I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.

5-year cash flow forecast

	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	$1.26k	$1.31k	$1.50k	$1.72k	$1.97k
Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x1	Est @ 14.61%	Est @ 14.61%	Est @ 14.61%
Present Value Discounted @ 11.29%	$1.13k	$1.06k	$1.09k	$1.12k	$1.15k

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$5.54b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 11.3%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF₂₀₂₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.97b × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (11.3% – 2.9%) = US$24.29b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)⁵ = US$24.29b ÷ ( 1 + 11.3%)⁵ = US$14.23b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$19.78b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $110.49. Compared to the current share price of $92.17, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 16.6% discount to what it is available for right now.

NasdaqGS:SWKS Intrinsic Value Export September 24th 18

The assumptions

I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Skyworks Solutions as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 11.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.182. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For SWKS, there are three fundamental factors you should further examine:

Financial Health: Does SWKS have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does SWKS’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of SWKS? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.

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