Cracking the Crypto Adoption Code

This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com.

By Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research

Crypto evolution, from Bitcoin to crypto-linked debit cards, struggles with adoption due to technological complexities and infrastructures - Gnosis Pay (GNO) aims to solve key issues.

Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below.

“The defense against the substitution of sovereign currencies is the maintenance of robust, trusted, and credible domestic institutions.” – IMF Blog, July 2023After 6 months of dramatic BTC & ETH outperformance, many so-called “altcoins” rallied in July, especially those that had been designated securities in recent SEC lawsuits like SOL (+24%), MATIC (+5%), and ADA (+9%), following Ripple’s victory vs. the SEC on the matter of whether XRP the token (+51%) is a security when traded on centralized crypto exchanges.

For the month, Bitcoin & Ethereum fell (both down 3%), while nearly every other crypto sector we track posted gains, except for the long-suffering Metaverse coins.

In our view, one major challenge for digital asset investors is balancing the winner-take-all characteristics historically evident among digital platforms with the extreme price performance disparity already evident year-to-date. Historically, Bitcoin dominance rises in the early part of a bull market and then fades as investors borrow against those gains to speculate on riskier assets. This time, however, leverage is less available, and the regulatory environment in the US is much more severe. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin halving is still ahead of us, as we explained in a recent webinar.

July

YTD

Coinbase

32%

168%

MarketVectorTM Infrastructure Application Leaders Index

9%

37%

MarketVectorTM Smart Contract Leaders Index

4%

32%

Nasdaq 100 Index

4%

37%

MarketVectorTM Decentralized Finance Leaders Index

3%

32%

S&P 500 Index

3%

19%

MarketVectorTM Centralized Exchanges Index

1%

1%

MarketVectorTM Media & Entertainment Leaders Index

-3%

-14%

Ethereum

-3%

55%

Bitcoin

-3%

77%

Source: Bloomberg, VanEck research as of 7/31/2023. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the names mentioned herein.

Layer 1s

Layer 1 smart contract platforms (SCPs) rose 4% in July, while the sector (MVSCLE) 30-day annualized volatility fell to 34%, the lowest of the 4 major categories we track. Falling volatility has been a trend for much of the past year despite extreme events, including the collapse of FTX, Luna, and 3AC. At the same time, the market cap of stablecoins has moved in lockstep with the falling volatility. This makes sense to us because as opportunities for trading decline due to decreased vol, stablecoin yields should also fall, reducing demand for stablecoins. We think a new leverage cycle is a precondition for the type of absolute returns and volatility that have characterized past cycles. But so far, there is little evidence of rising demand or supply for leverage. Anyway, among the SCPs we track, the best performers of the month were Solana (SOL), up 24%, and Optimism (OP), +23%. This month's laggards included Stacks (STX), down 14%, Fantom (FTM), down 23%, and Ethereum -4%.