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Since July of 2016 CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) has been a nightmare for investors. This time three years ago, CVS stock traded at a little more than $97, today it trades at something closer to $57.
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Despite making what seemed like smart moves, like dropping cigarettes, converting to a health format, adding clinics, and buying Aetna, the stock has continued to sink.
But analysts have suddenly warmed to CVS’ story. In the last month, the shares are up 8%. On July 11 alone they rose 4.68%. Even at that price, CVS is still selling at a retailer’s multiple of less than half its revenue.
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It’s an illustration of the difference between the marketplace and the stock market. It’s a great opportunity for investors with a long-term view.
Chronic Conditions and CVS Stock
America spends 18% of its GDP on health care, but 75% of that is spent treating and monitoring chronic conditions. These are preventable diseases like heart disease, diabetes, and kidney disease.
This is what CVS has been focused on. By delivering services as well as products through almost 10,000 stores, the company hopes to gain a bigger share of this $1.1 trillion bonanza. Preventing obesity, treating alcoholism and ending smoking could be worth trillions more.
Analysts have been focusing on drugs, in the form of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and its Pillpack service or CVS’ Caremark Pharmacy Benefit Manager, but CVS has been diversifying away from the pure-intermediary model.
Aetna alone brings 22 million insurance accounts to the party. If CVS’ network can reduce the costs of covering those people, it can offer lower prices that increase that number. That’s what its HealthHUB strategy is all about.
Deliver the most common services and treatments from a storefront, add front-line clinics for primary care, of which CVS already has 1,100, and you have more cost control than any insurance rival. CVS hopes to turn 1,500 of its outlets into HealthHubs in the next two years.
CVS Stock and the Real Competition
CVS’ rivals in this area aren’t Amazon or even Walgreens Boots Alliance (NYSE:WBA). They’re other insurers like United Healthcare (NYSE:UNH), which dominates the private insurance market and managed care companies like Centene (NYSE:CNC), which uses company-owned facilities to handle Medicare and Medicaid at a profit.
Investors haven’t credited any of CVS’ moves for political reasons. Democrats talking about converting all health care to a publicly funded system makes them nervous. The possible end of Obamacare, pricing tens of millions out of the insurance market, also makes them nervous.