Despite the gloom Britons are still spending – but maybe not for long
credit card spending cost of living
credit card spending cost of living

Predictions that the pandemic would be followed by the roaring 20s just like after the Spanish Flu ended a hundred years ago have not aged well. Britain has instead been engulfed by the worst cost of living crisis in decades, with food prices rising by nearly a fifth and mortgage rates tripling in a year.

Yet even as the prices of everyday items have soared, pubs, bars and restaurants are still full – and consumers have remained surprisingly upbeat, helping June’s GDP figures beat expectations on Friday.

More recently, big artists like Beyonce and Taylor Swift with young fanbases have sold out stadiums with tickets of priced at £100+. Meanwhile, millions have flocked to cinemas to see Barbie and Oppenheimer.

Most economists had been predicting that the UK would fall into recession – but so far it is yet to materialise. But can the good times really last?

Joe Staton of GFK, which measures how confident households feel about their finances, jobs and the wider economy, admits he is taken aback by how strong sentiment has been.

“I’m still amazed that it hasn’t fallen off a cliff to tell you the truth,” he says of consumer confidence.

Consumers are still gloomy on balance. But following the shock of the Truss mini-Budget and its aftermath they became more cheerful nearly every month – until early summer.

Even now, when asked whether they think their finances will improve or worsen in a year, it is only a slim majority of households who believe things will get worse.

This resilience is remarkable at a time when the news is dominated by headlines about the mortgage crisis, rents are rising at record pace and the cost of groceries is still soaring.

But unlike during other crises, unemployment has remained near record lows, having only just edged up to 4pc from a low point of 3.5pc.

“I think people are feeling pretty secure in their jobs despite a slight uptick in the unemployment numbers,” Staton says.  “When we’re secure, we feel confident and when we feel confident we spend. I think it’s as simple as that.”

The strength of the economy took analysts by surprise when it emerged it grew by 0.5pc in June – far ahead of expectations.

Under the bonnet, the figures revealed strong household consumption, and hotels and restaurants saw healthy demand.

“Compared to January if you’d have said to me that inflation would have would have come down as slowly as it has, and interest rates would be at 5.25pc and demand would still be as strong as it is, I definitely would have been surprised,” says Elizabeth Martins, head of economics at HSBC.