Dollar General (NYSE:DG) shares surged nearly 14% at 12.11pm after the company beat Wall Street's Q1 expectations, reporting adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share on $10.4 billion in revenue. Same-store sales rose 2.4%, driven by higher average basket sizes despite softer foot traffic. CEO Todd Vasos noted strong market-share gains in core categories like food and household essentialsplus an encouraging uptick in spending from middle- and high-income consumers. Citi's Paul Lejuez, who upgraded the stock in April, said the quarter was solid enough to support the rally, even with tariff uncertainties still on the radar.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with DG.

That near-term boost, however, doesn't erase a broader concern: growth has hit a wall. A look at the last 12 quarters shows revenue stuck between $9 and $10 billion, with net margins hovering in a tight 3.5% to 5% range. Net income and EBITDA have barely budged.

Longer-term data suggests Dollar General's strongest growth phase happened years agowell before COVID. While the business rebounded post-pandemic, it hasn't regained that earlier acceleration. Since 2023, results have been flat, pointing to a possible saturation of the current model.

In the short term, DG could continue to benefit as a defensive play in a shaky macro environment. But the charts are starting to whisper a tougher truth: this might be as good as it gets without a major shift in strategy. Investors chasing Tuesday's spike may want to pause and ask whether they're buying momentumor just buying time.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.