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Elmos Semiconductor SE (ETR:ELG) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 27% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. In fact, the share price is 170% higher today. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Elmos Semiconductor. Read for free now.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Elmos Semiconductor achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 51% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 22% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 7.22 also suggests market apprehension.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Elmos Semiconductor has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Elmos Semiconductor's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Elmos Semiconductor the TSR over the last 5 years was 192%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Elmos Semiconductor shareholders are down 27% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 8.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 24%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Elmos Semiconductor (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.