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Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) share price is up 50% in the last 5 years, clearly besting than the market return of around 4.7% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 0.6%, including dividends.
See our latest analysis for Ferguson
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over half a decade, Ferguson managed to grow its earnings per share at 10% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 8.4% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Ferguson's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Ferguson the TSR over the last 5 years was 79%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Ferguson shareholders gained a total return of 0.6% during the year. But that was short of the market average. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 12% over five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.