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The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 41% over five years, which is below the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 11%.
While the stock has fallen 3.1% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
View our latest analysis for Flowers Foods
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Flowers Foods achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.4% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 7% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Flowers Foods has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Flowers Foods, it has a TSR of 68% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Flowers Foods has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 14% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 11% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Flowers Foods that you should be aware of before investing here.