Shareholders might have noticed that GMS Inc. (NYSE:GMS) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.0% to US$74.02 in the past week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$1.3b missing analyst predictions by 2.5%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.55 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for GMS

Following last week's earnings report, GMS' eight analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$5.48b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$3.87, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.31 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 15% to US$83.33. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values GMS at US$111 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$65.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that GMS' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.