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The recent plunge in cryptocurrency prices has at least one major Wall Street firm staying on the sidelines for some crypto-linked stocks.
Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday downgraded shares of Coinbase (COIN) to Sell from Neutral, slashing their price target on the stock to $45 from $70.
In the same note, the firm upgraded shares of Robinhood (HOOD) to Neutral from Sell. Both companies offer cryptocurrency trading as a core part of their business.
"We believe current crypto asset levels and trading volumes imply further degradation in COIN's revenue base," Goldman Sachs analyst Will Nance wrote in a note Monday. The firm expects Coinbase's revenue will fall 61% in 2022, following a 514% surge in sales last year as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices soared to record highs.
Goldman also notes that while Coinbase recently announced it would cut 18% of staff, these layoffs will not be enough to bring Coinbase's costs in line with lowered sales.
(COIN)
"We believe further cuts are needed, as the announced cost reduction effort merely brings headcount back to end-1Q22 levels and resulted in COIN moving to the low end of its previous expense guidance," Nance wrote. "We believe COIN will need to make substantial reductions in its cost base in order to stem the resulting cash burn as retail trading activity dries up."
The latest slump in crypto prices — with the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies dipping below $1 trillion in recent days from a record high of roughly $2.8 trillion last year — will likely have a commensurate impact on Coinbase's top-line results, Goldman Sachs suggested.
Goldman Sachs is also now "incrementally more negative" on Coinbase's ability to collect higher fees from users.
These concerns come following the platform's newly announced plan to merge its Coinbase Pro with its baseline trading platform aimed at retail customers with less trading experience.
"COIN’s retail platform has historically targeted less sophisticated customers aiming to easily/quickly buy/sell cryptocurrencies. This has allowed COIN to charge a significantly higher trading fee vs its more advanced counterpart, Coinbase Pro, which has been marketed to more active traders given its more advanced trading functionality and tiered maker-taker pricing schedule," Nance said. "We believe that combining these platforms will reduce switching cost friction between the two platforms and potentially lead to fee rate compression."
Goldman's new price target implies about 28% downside from Friday's closing level. Coinbase shares were down 77% year-to-date through Friday's close.