The G20 summit, which began Friday in Hamburg, Germany, witnessed a long-overdue handshake between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. On the surface, the meeting might signal mutual willingness to translate into practice the apparent friendly ties between the two leaders. But even despite each side’s comments that the meeting went well, it’s evident they don’t trust each other.
Trump was adamant during the presidential campaign that American policy toward Russia should change, all the more reason to think that once in office, one of Trump’s priorities would be to make clear steps to mend ties with Moscow. But this eagerness around improving relations has likely stalled due to allegations about Russian interference in U.S. elections, and awareness of Russia’s aim to revise the rules of liberal world order around the world. Earlier this week at the Three Seas Initiative Summit, Trump reassured Eastern Europe countries of America’s commitment to deter Russian aggression, and the U.S. has continued—or even increased—its criticism toward Moscow’s actions in Ukraine.
Russia has also been quite reluctant in engaging directly with President Trump. Up until now, Putin was faced with somewhat predictable and stable Western leaders. He could understand and plan in advance in order to counter the moves of the likes of Barack Obama or German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Trump’s election, while seemingly favorable for Russia, hasn’t actually been met with genuine bouts of joy by the Kremlin.
Instead, the Russian foreign policy establishment has put a lot of effort in evaluating what Trump and his administration mean for American foreign policy. Trump is viewed in the Kremlin as an erratic and unpredictable leader, whose words can’t really be trusted. Coupled with this, Putin knows that Trump’s power is limited by the American political establishment, and sees him more as an unpredictable entertainer than a leader. As a consequence, even before Trump was sworn in, the Kremlin had already developed a series of contingency plans for dealing with a possible change of heart from the new U.S. president.
Establishing good relations with Russia has been the goal of U.S. administrations over the last 25 years. Few have actually managed to achieve some measure of success in this regard. The most spectacular failure was the one of the Obama administration after the famous ‘reset’ initiative that Hillary Clinton spearheaded, which started off aiming to reset relations with Moscow, and ended up creating tensions similar to those experienced during the Cold War.