2025 has been an eventful year on Wall Street. The market has been making wild moves in response to unpredictable events. Many market watchers expect a downturn, a recession, and/or another bear market to emerge any day now. Then again, they've already been looking for these negative outcomes for several months.
There was a sharp drop in early April, but it didn't really stick. Whether you call the current situation a bear market or not, it's certainly a period of huge volatility.
I understand if you've sworn off investing altogether amid these shifting economic conditions However, I've been putting more spare cash to work than usual in recent months -- and I plan to continue doing so. Let me explain why I'm an unusually active stock investor in this fickle market. By the time I'm done, you just might want to join me.
Timing the market is an impossible game
Nobody knows what the stock market will do tomorrow, or next week, or next year.
There are surprises around every corner. Nobody expected the COVID-19 pandemic. The artificial intelligence (AI) surge was another surprise. The shocking dot-com boom was followed by an equally unexpected crash. I could go on and on.
The point is, real-world events have profound and unpredictable effects on the stock market. Some shocks beget golden eras for specific industries. Others can lay a muffling blanket over the whole economy.
So I don't trust anyone who says they know what the market will do over a specific period. Even master investor Warren Buffett can't forecast Wall Street's next moves.
"Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market," Buffett said in a 2008 New York Times article. "I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now."
If Buffett doesn't know, I don't stand a chance of getting it right. It's not for me to forecast when the next market downturn will start, or how deep it might go. Trying to time my stock purchases for the absolute bottom of a potential trough is a bad idea.
Image source: Getty Images.
Time in the market is a winning strategy
That 2008 Buffett article didn't end on that gloomy note, of course. He went on to describe his contrarian investment style, and his focus on holding great stocks for a long time.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," he wrote. Yeah, you've heard that bit before. "Bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."
In the long run, great companies will make patient shareholders happy. If you're not comfortable with picking the best stocks in a crowded market, a diversified mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) will do the same job.
For example, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(NYSEMKT: VOO) will never beat the market. However, it will help you build up your wealth if you invest in it steadily over many years and decades.
So I won't nail the perfect time to buy -- but at least I'm trying
Math is a wonderful science. I'm particularly thrilled about the power of compound growth.
Earning annual returns of 10% on your investments for a decade won't just double your money, because you're not just experiencing those 10% gains on your portfolio's original value. In the second year, you'll also see a 10% gain on the first year's gains, and so on in every year that follows. The benefits really start to rack up over time. In this basic example, If you started with a $1,000 investment, after 10 years, your investment would be worth $2,594.
Longer investment periods will continue to boost the overall returns. Add another decade to that $1,000 thought experiment with perfect annual returns of 10%, and you'd have $6,727 at the end. Going to 30 years results in a $17,449 result.
In reality, your gains won't be smooth. You'll go through down years like 2022 and fantastic periods like 2024. Adding more cash to your portfolio is a great idea when the market is booming. Yet as Warren Buffett suggests, you can get more value for your investing dollar when stock charts are trending down.
What I'm buying in 2025
That's why I don't mind buying stocks and exchange-traded funds in this nerve-wracking economy. My most recent buys have included the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the more aggressive Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth(NASDAQ: VONG) ETF. Among my hand-picked stock buys in recent weeks, you'll find a few shares of retail giant Walmart(NYSE: WMT) and media-streaming pioneer Roku(NASDAQ: ROKU). These are some of my best investment ideas right now.
It feels easy to find undervalued stocks right now. I've only shared a few of my 2025 purchases here. Most of them have posted negative returns in the early going, and that's fine. I might just keep buying them at better and better starting prices.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Roku, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Scottsdale Funds-Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Roku, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
