Howard Marks: Doing the Right Thing at the Right Time

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Ascertaining an asset's intrinsic value is hard. But it's even harder to determine that something is undervalued and to buy it at its absolute low. In fact, it's impossible to know exactly when a security has bottomed out. In almost every case, a value asset will continue to fall in price after you have bought it. In his book, "The Most Important Thing," value investor Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio) discusses the problems that come with buying value.

Being too far ahead of your time

As value investors, we can (sometimes) determine whether something is selling below intrinsic value, but not how much lower it will go:




Now, if you know for sure that the asset is being mispriced then further declines should not be an issue. The cheaper something gets, the better of a bargain it is, so you should buy more. Of course the problem is that nothing is ever 100% certain. Indeed, you must always be open to the possibility that you could be wrong in your assessment of the situation. So it is only natural that investors become skittish when their positions continue to decline:




Don't be stubborn