Archer Aviation Inc. ACHR is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 12, 2025, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACHR’s first-quarter bottom-line estimate is pegged at a loss of 21 cents per share, suggesting an improvement from a loss of 23 cents in the prior-year quarter. The estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
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Archer Aviation has an unimpressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, met once and missed in the other, the average negative surprise being 15.21%.
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Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ACHR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Archer Aviation has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Key Factors to Consider
In February 2025, Archer Aviation unveiled a “Launch Edition” commercialization program for its Midnight electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, targeting the deployment of the Midnight jet in dozens of early adopter markets. In the same month, Abu Dhabi Aviation signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that set forth a framework for funding the deployment of the Midnight Launch Edition aircraft, thereby becoming ACHR’s first Launch Edition customer.
In March, Ethiopian Airlines signed an agreement with Archer Aviation for the deployment of an initial fleet of Midnight aircraft in Africa, thereby becoming the second customer under the company’s “Launch Edition” program. Such commercialization initiatives for Midnight jets by ACHR, along with the subsequent agreements, may contribute favorably to its first-quarter results.
With the company continuing to invest in its engineering, manufacturing and commercial activities for the Midnight aircraft, it is likely to have incurred notable expenses for the program’s development. This, along with an increase in labor and materials spent due to its planned ramp of manufacturing activity for the Midnight jets, is likely to have increased Archer Aviation’s operating expenses, thereby weighing on its quarterly earnings performance.
However, the technological advancement that ACHR has achieved over the past few quarters while developing the Midnight jet is likely to have provided it with operational efficiency, aiding its quarterly bottom line.
The company’s quarterly results are also likely to reflect a strong cash balance account, particularly driven by the proceeds from its February equity raise worth $301.8 million, which in turn brought its total liquidity position to approximately $1 billion.
Meanwhile, during the first quarter, Archer Aviation received the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification to launch its pilot training academy. This certificate enables Archer to train and qualify pilots as part of its newly launched training academy. We may expect the upcoming first-quarter results to reveal further updates about this facility, where the production might have started.
Price Performance & Valuation
ACHR’s shares have exhibited a downward trend recently, losing a notable percentage in the year-to-date period. Specifically, the stock fell 12.5% in the timeframe, underperforming the Zacks aerospace-defense industry’s gain of 9.23%. It also lagged the broader Zacks Aerospace sector’s return of 8.3% as well as the S&P 500’s loss of 4.3%.
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Other notable stocks from the same industry have, however, gained in the year-to-date period. Shares of Embraer ERJ and Boeing BA have rallied 26.7% and 5.1%, respectively, over the past year.
A quick glance at the company’s return on equity (ROE) over the past year compared to that of its industry reveals a dismal scenario. ACHR’s ROE is lower than that of its industry. Further, a negative ROE indicates that a company is making a loss, as evident from its recent quarterly results.
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On the contrary, ROE for its industry peers remains impressive. Embraer’s ROE is 16.65, higher than the industry’s 9.66. Boeing’s ROE also lies much above that of the industry.
Investment Thesis
ACHR offers promising near-term prospects, but whether its business will be sustainable in the long run remains uncertain. This is because the eVTOL aircraft market is still in its early stages, and ACHR's success depends not only on its ability to design, develop and certify eVTOL aircraft but also on how the demand for these vehicles evolves.
Public acceptance of eVTOLs as an alternative to traditional transport methods could face hurdles related to safety, noise and affordability concerns. Without widespread recognition, ACHR's growth potential may be constrained.
Additionally, ACHR and other aerospace manufacturers like BA and ERJ are navigating industry challenges, including persistent supply-chain disruptions and a shortage of skilled labor. Such factors could hinder ACHR’s ability to complete its projects on time. A significant delay in the timely operation of its Midnight jets, expected later this year, could affect the timeline for revenue generation.
Should You Buy ACHR Before May 12?
To conclude, investors interested in ACHR should refrain from adding this stock to their portfolio before Monday, considering its poor ROE, dismal performance at the bourses, as well as industry challenges. The company may disappoint with its first-quarter results, considering its unimpressive earnings surprise history and an unfavorable Zacks Rank.
Moreover, ACHR currently has a VGM Score of F, which is another indicator of the stock’s poor performance.
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