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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the ForFarmers N.V. (AMS:FFARM) share price is up 65% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market decline of around 6.7% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! It is also impressive that the stock is up 65% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the last year ForFarmers grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
When a company is just on the edge of profitability it can be well worth considering other metrics in order to more precisely gauge growth (and therefore understand share price movements).
We note that the most recent dividend payment is higher than the payment a year ago, so that may have assisted the share price. It could be that the company is reaching maturity and dividend investors are buying for the yield, pushing the price up in the process.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling ForFarmers stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for ForFarmers the TSR over the last 1 year was 74%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.