The J. M. Smucker Company SJM is likely to witness a top and bottom-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on June 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.19 billion, indicating a 0.8% drop from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $2.25 per share, which implies a 15.4% decrease from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. SJM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

The J. M. Smucker Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The J. M. Smucker Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The J. M. Smucker Company Quote

Key Factors to Watch Ahead of SJM’s Q4 Results

The J.M. Smucker has been navigating a challenging consumer landscape marked by inflationary pressures and reduced discretionary spending, which continue to reshape purchasing behavior. These shifting dynamics are particularly impacting categories like sweet baked goods, where recovery has been slower than anticipated. Notably, management lowered its expectations for the sweet baked snacks business in the fiscal fourth quarter, as disclosed during the third-quarter earnings call, raising concerns about the company’s near-term performance.

SJM has been incurring high selling, distribution and administrative (SD&A) costs. The company expects SD&A expenses to increase roughly 8% in fiscal 2025, indicating higher marketing investments. While these efforts are crucial for sustaining brand engagement and long-term equity, the disproportionate rise in SD&A relative to revenues introduces margin risks.

On the last earnings call, management also indicated that the coffee segment might encounter its highest cost basket in the fiscal fourth quarter. Although performance in the fiscal third quarter exceeded expectations, margin compression is anticipated in the fiscal fourth quarter, as pricing actions might not fully offset the impact of commodity inflation and elasticity pressures. These conditions have heightened the risk for SJM’s to-be-reported quarter.

However, the resilience of its categories and the effective execution of key growth strategies have been aiding amid a dynamic landscape. SJM’s strategic priorities include focusing on growing volume and net sales, operating with excellence and prioritizing resources to capitalize on the fastest growth opportunities. The company concentrates on integrating and delivering on the acquired Hostess Brands business. Solid execution of these initiatives is likely to have supported performance in the to-be-reported quarter.