Is Koninklijke BAM Groep nv (AMS:BAMNB) A Risky Dividend Stock?

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Simply Wall St

Fri, May 17, 2019, 4:34 AM

Could Koninklijke BAM Groep nv (AMS:BAMNB) be an attractive dividend share to own for the long haul? Investors are often drawn to strong companies with the idea of reinvesting the dividends. Yet sometimes, investors buy a popular dividend stock because of its yield, and then lose money if the company's dividend doesn't live up to expectations.

With a goodly-sized dividend yield despite a relatively short payment history, investors might be wondering if Koninklijke BAM Groep is a new dividend aristocrat in the making. We'd agree the yield does look enticing. The company also bought back stock equivalent to around 1.5% of market capitalisation this year. Some simple analysis can reduce the risk of holding Koninklijke BAM Groep for its dividend, and we'll focus on the most important aspects below.

Explore this interactive chart for our latest analysis on Koninklijke BAM Groep!

ENXTAM:BAMNB Historical Dividend Yield, May 17th 2019

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Payout ratios

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. As a result, we should always investigate whether a company can afford its dividend, measured as a percentage of a company's net income after tax. In the last year, Koninklijke BAM Groep paid out 161% of its profit as dividends. Unless there are extenuating circumstances, from the perspective of an investor who hopes to own the company for many years, a payout ratio of above 100% is definitely a concern.

In addition to comparing dividends against profits, we should inspect whether the company generated enough cash to pay its dividend. Koninklijke BAM Groep's cash payout ratio last year was 8.9%. Cash flows are typically lumpy, but this looks like an appropriately conservative payout.

While the above analysis focuses on dividends relative to a company's earnings, we do note Koninklijke BAM Groep's strong net cash position, which will let it pay larger dividends for a time, should it choose.

Consider getting our latest analysis on Koninklijke BAM Groep's financial position here.

Dividend Volatility

From the perspective of an income investor who wants to earn dividends for many years, there is not much point buying a stock if its dividend is regularly cut or is not reliable. The first recorded dividend for Koninklijke BAM Groep, in the last decade, was nine years ago. Although it has been paying a dividend for several years now, the dividend has been cut at least once by more than 20%, and we're cautious about the consistency of its dividend across a full economic cycle. During the past nine-year period, the first annual payment was €0.10 in 2010, compared to €0.14 last year. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.8% a year over that time. The dividends haven't grown at precisely 3.8% every year, but this is a useful way to average out the historical rate of growth.

Modest growth in the dividend is good to see, but we think this is offset by historical cuts to the payments. It is hard to live on a dividend income if the company's earnings are not consistent.

Dividend Growth Potential

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share (EPS) are growing. Why take the risk of a dividend getting cut, unless there's a good chance of bigger dividends in future? It's not great to see that Koninklijke BAM Groep's have fallen at approximately 11% over the past five years. Declining earnings per share over a number of years is not a great sign for the dividend investor. Without some improvement, this does not bode well for the long term value of a company's dividend.

Conclusion

To summarise, shareholders should always check that Koninklijke BAM Groep's dividends are affordable, that its dividend payments are relatively stable, and that it has decent prospects for growing its earnings and dividend. We're not keen on the fact that Koninklijke BAM Groep paid out such a high percentage of its income, although its cashflow is in better shape. Second, earnings per share have been in decline, and its dividend has been cut at least once in the past. With this information in mind, we think Koninklijke BAM Groep may not be an ideal dividend stock.

Given that earnings are not growing, the dividend does not look nearly so attractive. See if the 4 analysts are forecasting a turnaround in our free collection of analyst estimates here.

We have also put together a list of global stocks with a market capitalisation above $1bn and yielding more 3%.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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