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Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Melco International Development Limited (HKG:200) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Melco International Development
How Much Debt Does Melco International Development Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2018 Melco International Development had HK$38.8b of debt, an increase on HK$36.8b, over one year. On the flip side, it has HK$12.7b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$26.1b.
How Healthy Is Melco International Development's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Melco International Development had liabilities of HK$17.4b falling due within a year, and liabilities of HK$39.9b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$12.7b as well as receivables valued at HK$2.15b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$42.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the HK$25.3b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt After all, Melco International Development would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).