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MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. MercadoLibre beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$5.9b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 18%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MercadoLibre's 24 analysts is for revenues of US$26.3b in 2025. This reflects a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 21% to US$49.33. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$25.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$46.82 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on MercadoLibre's earnings potential following these results.
See our latest analysis for MercadoLibre
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$2,573, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MercadoLibre, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3,100 and the most bearish at US$1,840 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MercadoLibre's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 37% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.0% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MercadoLibre is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.