MRNA Q1 Earnings Call: Management Focuses on Cost Reductions and Pipeline Progress Amid Revenue Shortfall

MRNA Cover Image — MRNA Q1 Earnings Call: Management Focuses on Cost Reductions and Pipeline Progress Amid Revenue Shortfall

Kayode Omotosho

Wed, May 14, 2025, 3:24 PM 6 min read

Biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 35.3% year on year to $108 million. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $2 billion at the midpoint came in 6.1% below analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP loss of $2.22 per share was 28.6% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy MRNA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

Moderna (MRNA) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:

Revenue: $108 million vs analyst estimates of $117.9 million (35.3% year-on-year decline, 8.4% miss)
Adjusted EPS: -$2.22 vs analyst estimates of -$3.11 (28.6% beat)
Adjusted EBITDA: -$1.01 billion vs analyst estimates of -$1.07 billion (-936% margin, 5.2% beat)
The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $2 billion at the midpoint
Operating Margin: -972%, down from -758% in the same quarter last year
Free Cash Flow was -$1.15 billion compared to -$1.19 billion in the same quarter last year
Market Capitalization: $9.86 billion

StockStory’s Take

Moderna’s first quarter results reflected the ongoing impact of a shifting COVID-19 vaccine market, with management emphasizing the seasonality of respiratory vaccine sales and continued cost discipline. CEO Stephane Bancel highlighted operational progress, including a 19% reduction in combined R&D and SG&A expenses compared to last year, and reiterated that lower first-quarter revenues were consistent with internal expectations due to a transition to routine seasonal vaccination patterns.

Looking ahead, Moderna’s leadership anchored full-year guidance on potential new product approvals and further cost reductions. CFO Jamey Mock noted that expense guidance for 2025 remains unchanged but outlined new targets for 2026 and 2027, aiming for substantial additional savings. The company is prioritizing regulatory milestones for key pipeline programs, such as next-generation COVID, RSV, and flu vaccines, while continuing to invest in oncology and rare disease candidates. Bancel stated, “We remain focused on our late-stage pipeline to drive sales growth and diversification.”

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Moderna’s management attributed Q1 performance to the seasonally low demand for respiratory vaccines, ongoing cost reduction initiatives, and a focus on pipeline advancement. The company’s explanations for the revenue miss centered on broader vaccination trends and product mix rather than operational shortcomings or loss of market share.

Respiratory Vaccine Seasonality: The low first-quarter revenue was primarily driven by the seasonal nature of COVID-19 and RSV vaccine demand, with most sales expected in the second half of the year. Management noted ongoing normalization of COVID vaccinations into routine patterns and stable U.S. market share based on prescription data.
Cost Reduction Initiatives: There was a continued double-digit year-over-year decline in combined R&D and SG&A expenses, reflecting management’s emphasis on streamlining operations. CFO Jamey Mock announced plans for further reductions, targeting a 55% decrease in annual GAAP expenses from 2023 to 2027, primarily through winding down large late-stage trials and operational efficiencies.
Pipeline Prioritization and Advancement: The company advanced regulatory filings for its next-generation COVID, RSV, and flu vaccines, with decisions expected over the next 12 months. Management deprioritized the flu/COVID combination vaccine for younger adults to focus resources on older populations and oncology programs, notably the Checkpoint and Intismeran therapies.
Regulatory and Market Access Updates: New approvals and tenders in Europe and additional approvals for mRESVIA (RSV vaccine) in Australia, Taiwan, the UK, and Switzerland expanded the company’s commercial footprint. Management expects these markets to contribute to sales as product launches progress.
Oncology Pipeline Expansion: The prioritization of the Checkpoint program (mRNA-4359), supported by early clinical data, marks a strategic shift toward oncology. Management intends to expand Checkpoint into more cancer indications, leveraging recent data and ongoing collaborations with partners like Merck.

Drivers of Future Performance

Moderna’s outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond is shaped by regulatory milestones, product approval timelines, and continued cost containment efforts. Management underscored the importance of a diversified pipeline and efficient operational execution.

Regulatory Approval Timing: Success in obtaining regulatory approvals for next-generation COVID, RSV, and flu vaccines, as well as pivotal pipeline programs in oncology and rare diseases, will be critical for future revenue growth.
Pipeline Diversification and Execution: Management believes that advancing a broad late-stage pipeline, including the Checkpoint oncology program and vaccines targeting norovirus and CMV, will help offset the decline in COVID-19 vaccine demand.
Ongoing Cost Controls: The company is targeting a further reduction in annual expenses, aiming to reach cash breakeven by 2028. Management highlighted that the majority of future cost savings will come from R&D as large clinical trials conclude and operational efficiencies are realized.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the timing and outcomes of regulatory decisions for Moderna’s next-generation COVID, RSV, and flu vaccines, (2) progress on late-stage pipeline readouts, particularly in oncology and rare diseases, and (3) the company’s ability to execute further cost reductions as major clinical trials wind down. Additional attention will be paid to commercial uptake in newly approved markets and the initial impact of the Checkpoint program’s clinical data.

Moderna currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.5×. In the wake of earnings, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our free research report.

Our Favorite Stocks Right Now

The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025.

While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we’re homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver’s seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

Terms and Privacy Policy

Your Privacy Choices

Utah Privacy Notice

More Info