Nomad Foods Limited (NYSE:NOMD) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Nomad Foods Limited (NYSE:NOMD) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript February 25, 2023 Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Nomad Foods Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation . As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to your host, Anthony Bucalo, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Anthony Bucalo: Hello, and welcome to the Nomad Foods Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I'm Anthony Bucalo, Head of Investor Relations, and I am joined on the call by Stefan Descheemaeker, our CEO; and Samy Zekhout, our CFO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on Slide two of our presentation. This conference call may include forward-looking statements that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations, and intentions at this time. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release, our filings with the SEC, and this slide in our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language. We will also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with IFRS results. Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website. Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represent adjusted figures for 2021 and 2022. All adjusted figures have been adjusted for exceptional items, acquisition-related, share-based payment, and related expenses as well as non-cash FX gains or losses. Unless otherwise noted, comments from here on will refer to those adjusted numbers. With that, I will hand you over to Stefan. Stefan Descheemaeker: Thank you, Tony, and thank you for joining us on the call today. I am pleased to report that 2022 marked our sixth consecutive year of generating record sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS. I would like to thank all the dedicated people at Nomad who made it possible under historically challenging conditions. Last year, we made significant adjustments to our business model as we evolve to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and the Ukraine war. Importantly, we maintain our strong foundation speed on world-class people, equating brands in a great category and healthy financials that will allow us to continue investing for the long term. Frozen food remains a great value for consumers with sustainable growth expected ahead. Frozen food is high in nutrition, low in waste and the best value for money across the food category. During periods when consumers are looking for value in nutrition in their food choices, frozen food needs them and more. As the category leader, Nomad is positioned to deliver that value to our millions of consumers. In 2020 and '21, our business excelled during the COVID lockdown as consumers' pantry loaded and had more frozen means at home, adopting many of our products into their everyday lives. I'm happy to say that we have held on to most of these games. In 2022, we started the year with the supply chain still under pressure from the COVID impact. The war in Ukraine further complicated the situation, creating historic input cost increases and consumer uncertainty. We took four major steps to successfully mitigate the short and long-term disruptions. First, we derisked our fish supply by diversifying our species and geographies while ramping up high-quality farm sources. Second, we leveraged our powerful supply chain to build inventories of key ingredients to protect against any shortages. Third, we successfully priced our products to close the gap with this reinflation. Finally, we refinanced our debt portfolio in November, extending our debt maturities to mid-2028 and 2029. We believe that 2023 is setting up to the transitional year to a more normalized consumer environment. With the improvements we implemented in our business last year, the plans we have in place for this year, we are on the right path to meet our financial objectives and maintain our growth. We also have the right plans in place to capture market share, boosted by our great brands communication and innovation. We plan to strengthen our brand by increasing investment in A&P, and this is especially crucial as conditions normalize. We will also be broadening our affordable choices to address inflationary pressures on consumers. We will manage our supply chain for greater efficiency and use those cost savings to enhance lines of plant growth. Finally, we plan to maximize the value of our portfolio through prudent pricing and improved revenue growth management strategy. This will help drive our efforts to recruit the COVID-19 impact of two years of recutting cost inflation. Revenue growth management will be especially important as we maximize the value of our portfolio and win market share by placing the right product at the right place and at the right price. Taken together with the expected rebounding of our cash flow and the increased visibility of extended debt maturities, we believe we have significant flexibility to return cash to shareholders while positioning our business for growth beyond next year. We will be taking a deeper dive into our strategy later today at CAGNY, and we hope you will join us again. With that, I'd like to recap our 2022 key financial metrics, beginning with reviews. Q4 organic revenues grew 7.7% or a third sequential quarter of improving sales trends. Our full-year organic revenues grew 1.8% as of price increases in the back half of the year offset volume declines. This low single-digit organic sales performance is in line with our guided expectations from the beginning of the year. Adjusted gross margin declined 80 basis points to 25.7% in the fourth quarter and declined 120 basis points for BDA. We saw a sequential improvement in gross margin trends in the second half due to our pricing initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA was up slightly at €130 million in Q4 and grew 8% to €524 million for the year. And finally, adjusted EPS was €0.33 per share in Q4, flat versus last year. At current US dollar cost rate, our Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.35. Adjusted EPS was impacted by our non-vetere financing, and we saw an approximately €0.02 impact on earnings for Q4 and for the full year. Despite a historically challenging macroeconomic environment, we delivered another record financial performance in sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS. Since 2016, we have increased our total reviews by more than 50%, adjusted EBITDA by more than 60%, and doubled our adjusted EPS. We have generated more than €1.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow during that period as well. Our organic revenues returned to growth as successful price increases exceeded mid-single-digit declines in full-year volume and mix. In the fourth quarter, we further narrow the gap between price and input costs, a gap, which has widened after the outbreak of the war. When looking ahead to this year, our diode remains active with retailers regarding further base to our pricing. Adjusting pricing will allow us to recover costs while protecting the business with step-up investments in A&P and innovation. Excellence in execution is a hallmark of Nomad and our supply chain has a great performance. Our service levels ended the year up 96.6%, a 30 basis point improvement. As of today, we have more than 50% of raw material cost covered for the coming year. We believe our supply chain is a source of competitive strength in the source of savings to sustainably help fund top-line growth this year and beyond. Last year, we raised prices to protect our margins and ensure that we have the appropriate profitability to invest in our business. Many of our private-label competitors did not follow our pricing. As a result, we've seen volume declines and margin losses in market share. However, this was predicted in this part of a broader process. We believe volume and market share losses are short-term in nature, which we expect to rebound this year as we will discuss at CAGNY later today. We successfully extended our debt maturity profile in November. We refinanced our $960 million Term Loan B due mid-2024 with 2 terms totaling to $830 million due in 2029. Our debt portfolio is now secured until mid-2028 and €29 at the competitive interest cost and is 75% fixed. With our maturities extended, we now have significantly more attitude in executing our use of cash strategies. This year, we're taking important steps to make Nomad strong in the market and better positioned for long-term growth. First, we refinanced our debt in November to give us greater visibility on the how to invest our cash. Commercially, we're investing in our brands with great A&P to ensure that we have the resources to innovate and grow our leadership position. When accounting for higher interest charges and stepped-up investments, we are establishing our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance at the range of €1.50 to €1.65 to reflect those investments. This represents an adjusted EPS range of $1.61 to $1.66, at current US dollar spot rates. The guidance excludes any impact of capital allocation. Excluding the impact of incremental interest in investment in A&P and people for 2023, our forecast adjusted EPS range for this year would have been in the range of €1.70 to €1.75. This would also have excluded any positive impact from capital allocation. We made significant adjustments to our business model as we navigated last year's volatile macroeconomic environment. First, we completed a major initiative to protect our fish supply. Throughout the year, we continually solve alternative sources for our signature fish products. We also secured new high-quality farm fish, and we expect to see the benefit of that early this year. We believe this project, the security of high-quality supply for sourcing, but also provides opportunities to exercise pricing power budgeting fish in the future. Second, we leveraged our world-class supply chain to address volatile markets against unprecedented cost increases. Procurement was a key source of strength in 2022 as we build raw material inventories to protect against possible shortages. Our service levels improved for the full year, delivering consistently for our customers and consumers. We continue to improve our supply chain efficiencies through intense internal cost control programs, and we expect much of the savings to be reinvested in top-line growth this year. Finally, we priced to close the gap legislation in a difficult year, we priced one in the first quarter. However, with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, we saw rapid increases in raw material prices and we were compelled to act. We took pricing throughout the year where appropriate and made significant progress, including the gap between price and costs. We will enter this year with the improving margins needed for investment in our brands. Alongside a vigorous revenue growth management strategy, we will continue to press consistently with the inflationary market dynamics as they occur. With that, I will now hand the call over to Samy to review our financial results and guidance in more detail. Samy? Samy Zekhout: Thank you, Stefan, and thank you all for your participation on the call today. Turning to Slide 7. I will provide more detail on our key fourth-quarter operating metrics, beginning with reported revenues, which increased 6.6% to €750 million, up 7.7% organically. Fourth quarter revenues were negatively impacted by 1.1% of unfavorable effects. For the year, total revenues were up 12.8%, driven by 1.8% organic growth and 10.8 percentage points from acquisitions. Overall, our sales benefited from lapping 2021 comparisons as well as strong pricing execution across all four quarters of the year. We did see elasticity in our top-line performance. This impacted our market share and overall volumes. Our volume and mix was up mid-single digits, while our value share was up about 0.5 point for the year. We expect market share to improve sequentially this year due to our innovation efforts on value and affordability as well as stepped-up A&P investments. Adjusted gross margins were 25.7% during the quarter, reflecting an 80 basis point decline versus the prior year. Margins were impacted by higher raw material costs, offset to some degree by pricing. This is the second quarter in improving gross margin trend. We will continue to look at pricing to stay price competitive in the market and manage any additional inflation. However, as we look out to the next year, our expectation is for a relatively stable gross margin as we will continue to recoup costs through price. Finally, we are planning to refresh our universal share statement on Form F-3 on March 1 to ensure that we can continue to access capital markets efficiently. No offerings are currently planned. Moving down to the rest of the P&L. Our adjusted gross profit grew 3% to €193 million for the fourth quarter. Adjusted COGS increased to €558 million, an increase of 7.7% and €40 million versus last year. Adjusted operating expense of €103 million was up 9% year-over-year. Our adjusted EBITDA and our adjusted EPS performances were positively impacted by higher pricing in our core business, offsetting a considerable portion of our raw material cost for this quarter and the full year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of €113 million was up slightly versus last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin ended at 15.1%, a decline of 90 basis points. Finally, our adjusted EPS of €0.33 was flat in Q4. This translates to €0.35 in U.S. dollar terms at spot rate. Adjusted EPS was negatively impacted by debt refinancing, and this had a roughly €0.02 impact on earnings for Q4 and for the full year. Full-year adjusted gross profit grew 8% to €85 million. Full-year COGS increased to just above €2.1 billion, up 14%, driven by raw material inflation. Full-year adjusted operating expense grew 12% for the year to €380 million. As a percentage of sales, adjusted operating expense was flat at 13%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA ended at €524 million, up 8%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.8%, also down 90 basis points from last year. Full-year adjusted EPS of €1.68 landed in the middle of the guidance range we provided in Q2 earnings of 8%. This was $1.80 at current US dollar spot rates. Excluding our November refinance, we estimate our 2022 adjusted EPS would have been €1.70 or $1.82 at current $spot rates. Turning to cash flow on Slide 9. We generated €189 million of adjusted free cash flow for a cash flow conversion of 65%. Cash flow was impacted by a working capital increase of €96 million and the one-time implementation of the unfair trade practice directive or PPD, in the EU and €80 million drag. In 2023, with more normalized working capital levels and new PPD in the base, we expect to return to a cash flow conversion of 90% to 95%. Our cash flow performance was short of our typical annual goal of 90 to 95% conversion. However, we took important steps last year to protect our business by building raw material inventories to mitigate shortage risk. We made it a top priority to guarantee supply for our customers and consumers, and we did so. We are proud of this accomplishment, and we believe keeping products on the shelf was crucial in maintaining the confidence of our retail partners and consumers. Condition in the raw material markets are improving, and we have begun reducing working capital. We expect to continue to install throughout this year. CapEx of €79 million was flat versus last year. We supported strategic investments and integrated our recent acquisitions into our broader company spending plan throughout the year. Changes in cash tax decreased €50 million to €80 million, while cash interest was €22 million to €80 million, mostly due to the comparison with last year's refinancing period. With that, let's turn to Slide 10 to review our 2023 guidance, which we are initiating today and is based on foreign exchange rates as of February 21, 2022. Starting with the top line, we expect revenue growth in the mid-single-digit range for the year. We expect our pricing initiatives to offset expected volume declines, declines at which we expect to rebound. We expect this year's cash flow to be consistent with our historical performance. With our working capital and new PPD adjustment behind us, we expect our cash conversion ratio to rebound the previous level, 90% to 95%. As Stefan highlighted in his opening comments, with higher interest costs from our refinancing and stepped-up commercial investments, we expect adjusted EPS in a range of €1.50 to €1.55 per share or $1.61 to $1.66 at current $spot rates. This excludes any impact of capital allocation. When excluding the impact of incremental interest and stepped-up investments in A&P and people for this year, our forecast adjusted EPS range from 2023 would have been €1.70 to €1.75. This also would have excluded any positive impact from capital allocation. I will now turn the session over to Q&A. Operator, back to you.