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It's been a good week for Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.6% to US$92.40. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.9b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Northern Trust surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.90 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Northern Trust, is for revenues of US$7.87b in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 8.3% reduction in Northern Trust's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 27% to US$8.05 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.01 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Northern Trust
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$102, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Northern Trust analyst has a price target of US$128 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$81.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Northern Trust's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Northern Trust is expected to lag the wider industry.