On July 11, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had been killed. Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed Caliph Ibrahim and leader of ISIS, had been the world's most wanted man for three years since declaring a caliphate in the summer of 2014. It should be noted that there has been no confirmation of Baghdadi's death from Amaq, the media wing of ISIS. If true, however, his death would be a devastating loss to the group.
At the same time, Baghdadi's death could accelerate ISIS's evolution from a militant group holding territory in the Middle East to an amorphous terrorist organization that could strike in any place at any time. Western leaders should pay close attention to the group's response to this crisis, as it has the potential to increase the threat of terrorist attacks in their countries.
To understand how ISIS may respond to its leader's death, consider how the group has previously responded to setbacks. Following the loss of large swathes of territory over the last few years, ISIS shifted its raison d'etre from holding territory to embarking upon an insurgency campaign. In the formative stages of the group, it operated in small cells, borne out of local grievances that were fused with the ideological worldview of a number of former members of al-Qaeda and the military guile of members of the Baathist regime.
Following allegations of Baghdadi's demise, there has been a great deal of infighting among the rank-and-file ISIS members, which suggests that a leadership struggle has begun. Abu Haitham al-Obaidi, a prominent ISIS official in Hawija, has allegedly declared himself caliph. Obaidi has allegedly withdrawn from the group with a large number of followers. One imagines that without a charismatic leader to hold the group together, similar things will continue to happen. Such events will make it much harder for coalition forces to defeat ISIS on the ground.
We must also consider the impact on the group internationally--concerning both those committed to leaving their countries to join the group and those willing to commit violent acts across the West. Ultimately, the ideological message of the group will resonate long after Baghdadi's death. In Dabiq, the group's propaganda publication, senior ideologues have referred to a messianic vision of the End of Days, stemming from a war between ISIS and "the armies of Rome," in a nod to the Crusades. This apocalyptic narrative is imperative in encouraging people to commit acts of terrorism across the world as we have seen in the UK, across Europe, and in the U.S.