(Bloomberg Opinion) -- America’s elections provide a narrow window of opportunity for its trading partners. Across the world, negotiators will have seen a man from Maine given a prime spot at the Republican National Convention: Lobsterman Jason Joyce spoke about how President Donald Trump had “brokered a deal to end European Union tariffs of 8% on Maine live lobsters and up to 20% on Maine lobster products.” It is no coincidence that, in 2016, Trump won only one of Maine’s four electoral college seats.
Trump, behind in the polls, is desperately trying to moderate the effects of his poorly considered trade war on crucial voters. The world’s trade bureaucrats should have had pen in hand on the second day of the RNC: Miners, fishermen and farmers from states that Trump considers electorally important took turns in the spotlight. Figure out what they want, give the U.S. president something he imagines he can sell to them and you have an opportunity to get a quick deal through. That’s clearly what the EU had in mind when it signed a “mini trade deal” that, in return for a concession on lobsters, got the U.S. to commit to slashing a range of tariffs in half.
Here in New Delhi, time to strike a similarly advantageous deal is running out. The U.S.-India trade relationship in the Trump era has been dismal — partly because Indian trade officials have been slower than their counterparts in Europe or even China to figure out how to use America’s electoral divisions to their advantage. India’s commerce minister insists that we are “almost there” on a “quick trade deal”; writing in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, however, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer complains that India is “at times, a troublesome trading partner for the United States.”
Agricultural imports are the sticking point. What Indian negotiators have offered Washington is apparently a “step-by-step reduction in import duties” on high-value products. And they’ve tacked on a ton of other concessions, including a discussion on reducing tariffs on technology products. A better strategy, though, might be to focus on an immediate, targeted package that could be struck before the U.S. vote. In that case, minimal concessions could result in a big payoff.
An obvious target would be the dairy sector. (Hello, Wisconsin!) One report suggests Lighthizer wants India to promise to buy $6 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and dairy goods. While that would put a sizeable dent in the trade deficit the U.S. runs with India, it’s the kind of pledge that’s difficult for a market economy to make. Even the Chinese are struggling to fulfill their promise, made in January, to buy $36.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods.