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About a month after “Liberation Day” and the huge tariffs announced that day are now a distant memory, as tariffs between the U.S. and China were each largely rolled back. More on that later.

UBS strategists led by Sean Simonds have a timely note about how the questions will now focus less on policy uncertainty and more on outcome uncertainty. “We are possibly past the peak of uncertainty as more granular detail on tariffs and other policies come into focus,” they say. “What comes after this, however, is the policy OUTCOME uncertainty,” with the capitalization the choice of the authors.

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The UBS team’s assumptions were based on 10% universal tariffs and 60% on China — the latter of which is now double the actual tariff level, but given sector tariffs as well, probably a reasonable starting point as to guessing the economic implications. Their assumption is the U.S. economy will slow from a 2% year-over-year rate in the first quarter to 0.7% by the fourth quarter.

“Elevated, but uncertain volatility/risks suggest a value orientation (avoiding high valuations). However, the potential for continued economic momentum into 2026 suggests keeping exposure to some cyclical growth companies,” the UBS team say.

So what’s the right strategy? UBS suggests growth at a reasonable price. Granted, that’s not a strategy that has worked recently: the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF GARP, for instance, has underperformed the broader S&P 500 SPX this year, over the last 52 weeks and the last three years.

“Growth at a reasonable price (GARP) investing became a lot more difficult in the last decade as valuations expanded and a narrower set of companies were able to generate consistent growth. After the recent derating and with economic transitions underway, we think GARP may find renewed interest,” they say.

They produced this list of 29 stocks they think meet the criteria — on average, the companies trade at 30 times estimated 2025 earnings with a 19% expected return from UBS analysts. Tapping a valuation database called HOLT it inherited from Credit Suisse, the strategists said all of the stocks are in the top half of the market on operational quality, in the top quarter on growth and neither a value trap or too expensive, as well as being over $10 billion in market cap.