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Celebrations may be in order for Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSHA) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. Investors have been pretty optimistic on Taysha Gene Therapies too, with the stock up 13% to US$1.70 over the past week. Could this upgrade be enough to drive the stock even higher?
Following the latest upgrade, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Taysha Gene Therapies, is for revenues of US$5.4m in 2024, which would reflect a stressful 62% reduction in Taysha Gene Therapies' sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 62% to US$0.44. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.2m and losses of US$0.58 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
See our latest analysis for Taysha Gene Therapies
Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$5.50, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 54% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 153% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 16% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Taysha Gene Therapies is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses next year, perhaps suggesting Taysha Gene Therapies is moving incrementally towards profitability. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling, but with a serious upgrade to next year's earnings expectations, it might be time to take another look at Taysha Gene Therapies.