For more than two years, the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has dominated the investment landscape. The capacity for AI-empowered software and systems to make split-second decisions without the aid of humans is a technology that can provide operating efficiencies throughout most industries around the globe.
In Sizing the Prize, the analysts at PwC pegged this global addressable market for AI at $15.7 trillion by the turn of the decade. Even if this estimate is just somewhat in the ballpark, it points to a game-changing trend that can positively impact a long list of businesses.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, no company has more directly benefited from the rise of artificial intelligence than Nvidia(NASDAQ: NVDA). It took less than two years for Nvidia's market cap to catapult by more than $3 trillion, and for it to, briefly, become the most valuable publicly traded company.
While it would appear that nothing can go wrong for Nvidia, historical precedent would beg to differ. A decade from now, Nvidia stock coming back to Earth, coupled with steady growth from other magnificent businesses, can lead to three non-tech stocks blowing past Wall Street's AI darling in the market cap column.
History isn't on Nvidia's side
Let me preface this discussion by giving Nvidia credit where credit is due. Its Hopper graphics processing units (GPUs) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture account for the lion's share of GPUs deployed in enterprise AI-accelerated data centers. It's a testament that Nvidia is producing a superior product that's clearly outpacing its direct external rivals in compute potential.
Nvidia also took advantage of economic scarcity. With demand for AI GPUs handily outpacing their supply, and world-leading chip fabrication company Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing unable to expand its production capacity fast enough to satiate demand, Nvidia's hardware is commanding a 100%-plus premium to rival chips. There's a reason Nvidia's gross margin topped 70% throughout fiscal 2025 (its fiscal year ends in late January).
But there's a historical headwind that's lies undefeated since the mid-1990s, and it squarely has artificial intelligence and Nvidia in its proverbial sight.
Every next-big-thing technology and innovation for more than 30 years has endured a bubble-bursting event early in its expansion. In other words, investors have been consistently overestimating the adoption rate and/or utility of game-changing trends for decades -- and AI looks to be no exception. Most businesses deploying AI solutions haven't optimized them and aren't generating a positive return on their AI investments.
If history rhymes once more, and an AI bubble were to form and burst, Nvidia would almost certainly be one of the biggest losers. This isn't to say Nvidia won't be wildly successful after artificial intelligence matures as a technology. Rather, it points to the historical precedent that market leaders of next-big-thing trends always falter in the early going due to the overzealousness of investors.
However, the following three non-tech titans all have the tools and intangibles needed to leapfrog Nvidia's valuation over the next 10 years.
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.
Berkshire Hathaway
Though non-tech companies tend to dominate the trillion-dollar ranks, it's Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B), which seems likeliest to surpass Nvidia's market cap by 2035.
Even though the Oracle of Omaha is stepping down from his role as CEO by the end of this year and handing the reins over to Greg Abel, a foundation has been laid that can sustain double-digit returns for Berkshire Hathaway's stock.
One reason Berkshire stock has delivered an annualized return of almost 20% spanning 60 years is because Buffett and his team have focused on cyclical businesses. Instead of trying to time when inevitable recessions will occur, Buffett has packed his company's $280 billion investment portfolio and owned assets with businesses that can take advantage of nonlinear periods of growth. With the average U.S. recession since World War II lasting just 10 months and the typical expansion enduring for five years, Buffett and his crew simply need to exercise patience and allow time to work its magic.
Warren Buffett also has a penchant for diving into dividend stocks. Companies that pay a regular dividend have historically run circles around their non-paying peers in the return column over the last half-century. Berkshire appears to be on track to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income this year alone.
Don't overlook Berkshire's phenomenal buyback program, either. Despite Buffett going cold turkey on share repurchases for three consecutive quarters, he spent close to $78 billion, in aggregate, buying back his own company's stock from July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2024. These buybacks have helped to boost Berkshire's earnings per share and made its stock more attractive.
Visa
A second non-tech stock that can blow past Nvidia's valuation over the coming 10 years is none other than payment-processing leader Visa(NYSE: V). Visa's current market cap of $715 billion places it more than $2.7 trillion behind Nvidia.
One of Visa's core catalysts is shared with Berkshire Hathaway: the disproportionate nature of economic cycles. With periods of growth lasting considerably longer than downturns, Visa is able to benefit from consumers and businesses increasing their spending over time.
Something else that helps set Visa apart within the financial sector is its general avoidance of lending. Though companies that choose to process payments and lend can double-dip during periods of growth, it also exposes these double dippers to credit delinquencies and loan losses during recessions and sluggish periods of economic expansion. With Visa shying away from lending, it doesn't have to worry about setting aside capital. In short, Visa bounces back from downturns quicker than most financial stocks.
Arguably the biggest opportunity for Visa exists beyond domestic borders. Cross-border payment volume has been consistently growing by a double-digit percentage annually, which is reflective of how underbanked most emerging markets are. This is a company that has the cash flow and balance sheet to organically or acquisitively enter new markets and sustain a double-digit sales and earnings growth rate.
The icing on the cake is that Visa dominates domestically. The roughly $6.45 trillion in credit card network purchasing volume it handled in 2023 is approximately $2.4 trillion more than its three closest competitors, combined. Visa's U.S. cash flow is rock-solid and predictable.
Walmart
The third non-tech stock with the tools and intangibles to fully leapfrog Nvidia's market cap by 2035 is retail powerhouse Walmart(NYSE: WMT). Walmart's $765 billion market cap leaves it about $2.7 trillion away from Nvidia as well.
Walmart's easily identifiable competitive edge is its size. Its steady operating cash flow and deep pockets allow it to purchase products in bulk. When buying large quantities of goods, Walmart is able to negotiate a lower per-unit cost, which in turn allows it to undercut local stores and national grocers on price. Walmart offers a value proposition that speaks to consumers.
But Walmart is also an innovator. Management has been aggressively investing in its online presence and ramping up its membership platform (Walmart+) in an effort to boost organic growth and its margins. During its fiscal first quarter (ended April 30), global e-commerce sales surged 22%, with U.S. e-commerce delivering its first quarter of profitability.
Furthermore, membership income jumped by nearly 15%. Similar to Costco Wholesale's membership model, membership fees flow to the bottom line and allow Walmart to be more aggressive with its pricing on traffic-driving goods. Accepting lower margins on select groceries gets consumers in its stores or locked within its ecosystem where they can make higher-margin discretionary purchases.
Lastly, and to build on the point above, Walmart provides basic need goods, such as food, toiletries, and household cleaning products. It's going to draw consumers in any economic climate, and is fully capable of generating predictable cash flow year after year.
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Sean Williams has positions in Visa. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Costco Wholesale, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Visa, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
