By one projection, artificial intelligence (AI) can provide a $15.7 trillion boost to the worldwide economy by 2030.
Though Nvidia has been the AI revolution's most-direct beneficiary, there are mounting signs that its stock may be in a bubble.
Five dominant companies with foundational operating segments have the tools and intangibles to surpass Nvidia's market cap by 2028.
Since the start of 2023, there hasn't been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with tools that allow them to reason and act on their own, and potentially even learn new jobs and skillsets without the need for human oversight, is a game-changing innovation with a big addressable market.
While estimates of just how much AI can contribute to economic growth are all over the map, PwC pegged its global addressable market at a cool $15.7 trillion by 2030. If the actual impact of artificial intelligence is anywhere in the ballpark of this figure, there are going to be multiple winners.
Image source: Getty Images.
Thus far, no company has more directly benefited from the rise of AI than Nvidia(NASDAQ: NVDA). Its valuation climbed from $360 billion to end 2022 to well north of $3 trillion in less than two years. Nvidia's Hopper (H100) graphics processing unit (GPU) and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture have been the preferred chips used by businesses wanting to be on the leading edge of AI innovation.
To begin with, there hasn't been a game-changing innovation, technology, or trend for more than three decades that's avoided a bubble-bursting event in its early expansion phase. This is to say that investors frequently overestimate early adoption rates and the broad-based utility of highly touted technologies and innovations. Eventually, it leads to lofty expectations not being met. If an AI bubble were to form and burst, it would undoubtedly hit Nvidia stock hard.
Competition is also mounting in the AI-GPU space -- albeit from an unlikely source. Though direct competitors are ramping up production of high-powered chips for enterprise data centers, the biggest worry might be that most of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are internally developing chips of their own to use in their data centers.
Even if these AI-GPUs lack the compute potential of Nvidia's hardware, they'll be notably cheaper and not backlogged. There's a very real possibility of Nvidia losing out on future orders, or at the very least losing its premium pricing power.
I'd expect these headwinds to weigh down Nvidia stock over the coming three years and allow the following five companies to surpass its market cap. Note, I'm excluding Microsoft and Apple since their market caps are already higher than Nvidia, as of this writing.
1. Amazon
The likeliest of all companies to surpass Nvidia's valuation at some point over the next three years is e-commerce colossus Amazon(NASDAQ: AMZN). I'd argue Amazon is on a trajectory that could make it the largest publicly traded company by the turn of the decade.
While most people are familiar with Amazon because of its globally dominant online marketplace, its growth engine is primarily tied to its cloud infrastructure service platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS accounted for a third of all cloud infrastructure service spend during the fourth quarter of 2024, based on estimates from Canalys. More importantly, it's growing by a high-teens percentage on a year-over-year basis, with $117 billion in high-margin, annual run-rate sales.
Amazon's other high-growth ancillary segments aren't slouches, either. Being one of the premier social media destinations has made it an advertising rockstar. Even in a challenging economic environment, advertising services revenue is climbing by nearly 20% on a constant-currency basis. When coupled with the exceptional pricing power of Prime subscriptions, Amazon has the tools to generate outsized cash flow growth over the next three-to-five years, if not well beyond.
2. Alphabet
Google parent Alphabet(NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG) is a second stock that has the catalysts to leapfrog Nvidia in the next three years.
Similar to Amazon, Alphabet is leaning on its cloud infrastructure service platform (Google Cloud) to ramp up its growth potential and operating cash flow. Google Cloud is incorporating artificial intelligence to give its clients access to generative AI solutions and large language model tools. This high-margin segment has been recurringly profitable for Alphabet since 2023, and is generating around $49 billion in annual run-rate sales, as of the March-ended quarter.
But even though Alphabet is relying on AI to supercharge its high-margin growth rate, it has a foundational cash cow to fall back on in the event the AI bubble bursts. Google operates as a near-monopoly in global internet search, with just shy of a 90% share, as of April 2025, per GlobalStats. Disproportionately long economic growth cycles, coupled with Google's near-monopoly status, makes this segment a sustainable cash generator for Alphabet.
Image source: Getty Images.
3. Meta Platforms
If there's such a thing as a logical choice to surpass Nvidia's market cap in the coming three years, social media titan Meta Platforms(NASDAQ: META) certainly fits the bill.
Meta is an ad-driven business -- even more so than Alphabet. Whereas the latter generated 74% of its net sales in the March-ended quarter from advertising, Meta's social media destinations brought in just shy of 98% of its $42.3 billion in total revenue from ads in the first quarter.
No other social media company is particularly close to attracting the 3.43 billion daily active people that Meta averaged in March 2025. Having ultra-popular platforms, including Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Threads, and Facebook Messenger ensures that businesses will pay a premium to get their message(s) in front of users.
Meta Platforms is also sitting on an enviable treasure chest of capital. It closed out March with $70.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, as well as generated north of $24 billion in net cash from operations in the first three months of 2025. This cash affords Meta the luxury of slow-stepping the development of potentially game-changing innovations, such as the metaverse.
4. Visa
Though it's the longshot on this list, based on its current market cap of "just" $666 billion, payment facilitator Visa(NYSE: V) has the necessary catalysts to leapfrog Nvidia, when combined with the latter's headwinds.
Visa's sustained double-digit sales and earnings growth rate is a function of its being the dominant player in payment processing domestically, as well as having a potentially multidecade expansion runway in overseas markets. According to data collected by eMarketer, Visa handled about $6.45 trillion in credit card network purchase volume domestically in 2023. This was nearly $2.4 trillion more than No.'s 2 through 4 in market share, combined.
Aside from generating consistent merchant fees in the U.S., cross-border payment volume has been continually growing by a double-digit percentage. Visa has the capital and cash flow to organically or acquisitively enter faster-growing (and chronically underbanked) emerging markets.
Last but certainly not least, I fully expect the steady tortoise to beat the hare. While Nvidia's stock went parabolic in 2023 and 2024, it's Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) that's managed a nearly 20% annualized return over six decades. If Berkshire stuck to this trajectory, it could become a $2 trillion company by the midpoint of 2028.
One of the reasons Berkshire Hathaway is such a success is Buffett favoriting cyclical businesses. Whether it's companies he's acquired or invested in, the Oracle of Omaha favors businesses that ebb-and-flow with the U.S. economy. Buffett rightly recognizes that, even though recessions are inevitable, economic expansions last significantly longer than downturns. Thus, he's positioned Berkshire's investment portfolio and five dozen owned businesses to take advantage of these lengthy periods of U.S. growth.
Additionally, Warren Buffett loves putting Berkshire's cash to work in companies with robust capital-return programs. Berkshire Hathaway should have no trouble collecting in excess of $5 billion in dividend income over the next year.
In The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future, the researchers at Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research, showed that dividend stocks crushed non-payers in the return column over the last 51 years (1973-2024): 9.2% (annualized) for dividend stocks vs. 4.31% (annualized) for non-payers. Relying on dividend stocks suggests Berkshire's investment portfolio is going to outperform over the long run.
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Sean Williams has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Visa. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
