How Public Employee Pensions Make Income Inequality Worse
How Public Employee Pensions Make Income Inequality Worse · The Fiscal Times

Despite the stock market’s strong performance, public employee pension systems remain well below full funding and pressure on government budgets is building. Get ready for another round of battles over public employee benefits.

This month, UC Berkeley’s Haas Institute, a progressive research center, has stepped into the maelstrom, arguing that the problem is overblown. In a policy brief, analyst Tom Sgouros correctly points out that a pension plan need not be fully funded to continue making payments over long periods of time, and even questions whether 100 percent funding is an appropriate objective.

While Sgouros and like-minded public finance experts make some valid points, they may be surprised to learn that public employee pensions are becoming a driver of income inequality.

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Sgouros is right that, for most governments, pension underfunding is a not a near term solvency issue. Take CalPERS, the nation’s largest public pension system, as an example. Although only 73 percent funded, CalPERS is far from broke. As of June 30, 2016, it had $299 billion in net assets. In 2016, CalPERS collected $15 billion in member and employer contributions, while incurring $21 billion in benefit and administrative costs. Since 2007, contributions have been increasing at a 5 percent annual rate while expenses have been rising 8 percent a year. Over the long term, this is unsustainable, but a crisis is far in the future. Assuming expenses and contributions continue growing at historical rates and investment returns are zero, CalPERS would not run out of money until 2032.

Suggestions that the nation is facing a wave of pension-driven municipal bankruptcies are overheated. We have not seen a major city bankruptcy since mid-2013, and it is not clear that the few bona fide government financial crises that have occurred over the last decade were primarily the result of pension underfunding. Flat or declining revenue and a failure to maintain adequate general fund reserves better explain fiscal emergencies that confronted Vallejo, Stockton, San Bernardino, Detroit and Puerto Rico in recent years. Pension obligations come due over an extended time frame and at highly predictable rates, so it is hard to imagine them triggering an emergency without one or more other factors coming into play.

Fiscal hawks like me are prone to exaggerate the pension funding crisis for a variety of reasons. Many of us have accounting and financial management backgrounds, which engender a strong preference for balanced books. The fact that politicians make pension promises without setting aside enough funds to cover them under conservative assumptions is morally offensive. For us, witnessing that type of behavior is akin to an environmentalist seeing a smoke stack belching out greenhouse gases. Like the environmentalist anxious to draw public attention to climate change, we want the public to share our concerns about fiscal unsustainability — and can sometimes omit necessary nuance from our arguments.