Q1 2025 Marathon Petroleum Corp Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Kristina Kazarian; Vice President - Finance and Investor Relations; Marathon Petroleum Corp

Maryann Mannen; President, Chief Executive Officer; Marathon Petroleum Corp

John Quaid; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Marathon Petroleum Corp

Rick Hessling; Chief Commercial Officer; Marathon Petroleum Corp

James Wilkins; Senior Vice President - Health, Environment, Safety and Security; Marathon Petroleum Corp

Neil Mehta; Analyst; Goldman Sachs

Doug Leggate; Analyst; Wolfe Research

Manav Gupta; Analyst; UBS

Paul Cheng; Analyst; Scotiabank

Theresa Chen; Analyst; Barclays

John Royall; Analyst; JPMorgan

Matthew Blair; Analyst; Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Jason Gabelman; Analyst; TD Cowen

Presentation

Operator

Welcome to the MPC's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Amanda, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I will now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian. Kristina, you may begin.

Kristina Kazarian

Welcome to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at marathonpetroleum.com under the Investors tab.
Joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, CEO; John Quaid, CFO; and other members of the executive team.
We invite you to read the Safe Harbor statements on slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there, as well as in our filings with the SEC.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Maryann.

Maryann Mannen

Thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone. Let me highlight a few elements of our performance that were most relevant to our results in the first quarter.
Refining utilization of 89%, reflecting the safe and successful completion of the second highest amount of planned turnarounds in history focused heavily on our Gulf Coast region. We planned this turnaround activity to occur in the first quarter, a period of seasonally weaker demand.
Capture was 104% as we delivered strong commercial performance in a period of low refining margins and volatility from regulatory uncertainty. Our midstream segment adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year over year. And MPLX announced over $1 billion of strategic acquisitions advancing our midstream natural gas and NGL growth strategies.
Our longer-term fundamental view supports an enhanced mid-cycle environment for refining. Despite reductions to the 2025 demand outlook, forecasts still point to a global oil demand growth mainly driven by demand for the refined products we produce. US refined product inventories have drawn for the ninth straight week and are below the five-year average.
This, plus lower retail prices, should be supportive as we move into the summer driving season, a period of strong seasonal demand. Within our own domestic and export businesses, we are seeing steady year-over-year demand for gasoline and growth for diesel and jet fuel. And while light heavy differentials could remain narrow as Canadian producers increase maintenance in the second quarter, we believe that higher OPEC plus production could offset that near-term tightness.
We believe underlying fundamentals support stronger margins, especially as announced refinery closures offset recent capacity additions. We anticipate around 800,000 barrels per day coming offline across several refineries in the US and Europe this year. In the US, the Gulf Coast refinery completed its closure in the first quarter, and in California, two announced closures are expected over the next 12 months.
We have been investing in our fully integrated West Coast value chain. California demand for our products is driven by the 28 million conventional fuel vehicles in the state, among other factors. And with nearly 8 million in Los Angeles, the LA region is one of the three largest refined product demand centers in the US.
At our Los Angeles refinery, we are nearing completion of approximately $700 million in infrastructure improvements to integrate and modernize utility systems to improve reliability and increase energy efficiency while also complying with tighter emission reduction regulations. Following completion, expected at the end of this year, these improvements are intended to strengthen the competitiveness of our Los Angeles refinery and position us to be one of the most cost competitive players in the region for years to come.
Our long-term positive fundamental view for the refining industry is unchanged, and we expect demand growth to exceed the net impact of capacity additions and rationalizations through the end of the decade. We believe the US refining industry will remain structurally advantaged over the rest of the world. The US has a locational advantage given the accessibility of nearby crude, which we believe will grow as the cost of transportation increases. The availability of low-cost natural gas, low-cost butane, and the US refining system's flexibility all increase its competitive advantage over international sources of supply.
The flexibility of our [fighting] assets and our domestic and international logistical and commercial capabilities further increase our global competitive advantage. Our commitment to commercial excellence, regardless of market conditions remains core to our execution. We believe that the capabilities we are building provide a sustainable advantage versus our peers. We look to demonstrate that through our financial performance.
We are progressing our $1.25 billion standalone capital plan for 2025 with 70% targeted on high return projects designed to create optionality and improve our ability to capitalize on market volatility. Underpinning our commitment to safe and reliable operations, maintenance capital is approximately 30% of that capital spend.
In addition to the project at our LAR refinery in our Midcon region, we are increasing our flexibility to optimize jet production at our Robinson refinery to meet growing demand, with completion expected by year end 2026. On the Gulf Coast, we are constructing a distillate hydrotreater at our Galveston Bay refinery to produce higher value ultra-low sulfur diesel with completion expected by year end 2027.
In addition to these multi-year projects, we are executing smaller high return quick hit projects targeted at enhancing refinery yields, improving energy efficiency, and lowering our cost, leveraging our fully integrated refining system and geographic diversification across the Gulf Coast, Midcon and West Coast regions, we are well positioned to deliver peer leading through cycle cash generation.
In our midstream business, we've announced over $1 billion of strategic acquisitions since the start of the year. First, within its NGL value chain, MPLX, we'll be acquiring the remaining 55% interest in the BANGL NGL pipeline. Full ownership of BANGL and its expansion opportunities enhance MPLX's Permian platform as we connect growing NGL production from the wellhead to our recently announced Gulf Coast fractionation facilities. The BANGL transaction is anticipated to close in July, subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions.
Second, MPLX expanded its crude oil value chain by acquiring gathering businesses from Whiptail Midstream in March. The San Juan basin assets in the Four Corners region enhances supply to our refining system.
Third, within its natural gas value chain, MPLX has entered into an agreement to double its stake in the Matterhorn Express natural gas pipeline from 5% to 10%. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions. These acquisitions are expected to be immediately accretive.
We're all well aware of the volatility in the commodity markets. However, based on feedback from our producer customers, we continue to expect year-over-year growth across our Marcellus, Utica, and Permian operating regions. These basins have some of the lowest breakeven prices in the US, offering economically advantaged development opportunities.
We believe MPLX is well positioned and has significant opportunities to support the development plans of its producer customers, especially as demand increases for natural gas-powered electricity.
MPLX's financial flexibility places it in an excellent position to continue to significantly grow its distributions, further enhancing the value of its strategic relationship with MPC. Given our highly advantaged refining business and the $2.5 billion annualized distribution from MPLX, we believe we can lead peers in capital returns through all parts of the cycle.
Now, I'll hand it over to John to discuss our financial performance.