Q1 2025 Nexstar Media Group Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Perry Sook; Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer; Nexstar Media Group Inc

Michael Biard; President, Chief Operating Officer; Nexstar Media Group Inc

Lee Gliha; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Nexstar Media Group Inc

Joe Jaffoni; Investor Relations; JCIR

Dan Kurnos; Analyst; The Benchmark Company, LLC

Stephen Cahall; Analyst; Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Benjamin Soff; Analyst; Deutsche Bank

Aaron Watts; Analyst; Deutsche Bank

Jason Bazinet; Analyst; Citi

Patrick Scholl; Analyst; Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Barton Crockett; Analyst; Rosenblatt Securities, Inc.

Craig Huber; Analyst; Huber Research Partners LLC

Alan Gould; Analyst; oop Capital Markets

Presentation

Operator

Good day and welcome to Nexstar Media Group's first quarter 2025 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Joe Jaffoni, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Joe Jaffoni

Thank you, [Michelle], and good morning everyone. We'll get to management's presentation and comments momentarily, as well as your questions and answers. During the Q&A session, we ask that everyone please limit themselves to one question and one follow up.
I'll now read the Safe Harbor language and then we'll get right into the call. All statements and comments made by management during today's conference call, other than statements of historical fact, may be deemed forward-looking statements for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1,995.
Nexstar cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward-looking statements made during today's call.
For additional details on these risks and uncertainties, please see Nexstar's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and Nexstar's subsequent public filings with the SEC.
Nextstar undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host, next our founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Perry Sook. Perry, please go ahead.

Perry Sook

Thank you, Joseph, and good morning everyone. We appreciate you all joining us today. Mike Baird, our President and Chief Operating Officer, and Lee Ann Gliha, our executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, are both with me on the call this morning.
Nexstar's first quarter financial results mark a solid start to the year with net revenue adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, all benefiting from record first quarter distribution revenue and disciplined expense management. Before reviewing the highlights, I'd like to begin where I ended our last earnings call on a topic that remains a key strategic priority for Nexstar in 2025, which is deregulation.
In today's competitive landscape where big tech and big media are afforded unbridled and ubiquitous reach, current restrictions on local broadcast ownership are outdated, arbitrary, and exclusionary, and no one can logically defend those rules.
In my 45+ years in the industry, I continue to believe that the prospect of meaningful broadcast ownership reform has never been better than it is today. As Chairman and CEO of Nexstar and in my role as chair of the joint Board of Directors of the National Association of Broadcasters or trade association, achieving deregulation is my top priority.
We are fortunate to have a strong FCC chair in Brendan Carr who keenly understands the need for local broadcast deregulation and the relief that we and the industry need on both the national ownership cap and in-market local ownership rules.
Once the fifth commissioner is confirmed, which could happen by early this summer, we anticipate Chairman Carr will begin to take action on his agenda. In addition to our deregulatory agenda to level the playing field and to enable consolidation, we are also seeking to obtain a firm transition date for ATSC 1.0 standards to ATSC 3.0 standards, which will support and advance our rollout of high-speed data transmission and other services to allow us to fully monetize ancillary uses of our spectrum.
Given our strong financial position and balance sheet, we are prepared to capitalize on deregulation through M&A. Historically, this strategy has created tremendous shareholder value, helping drive our stock from $4.55 per share at the beginning of 2011, when the first consolidation wave began to the mid 160s neighborhood that we're in as of this morning.
As many of Nexstar has a well-defined M&A playbook. Once we identify attractive assets in strategic markets, our focus turns to evaluating synergies across these three key areas retransmission revenue opportunities, operational and cost efficiencies, and the strategic value derived from increasing our scale.
The most compelling transactions typically involve stations with opportunities for CW affiliations those in larger markets or stations located in the areas that overlap with our existing footprint, and we expect that all of these opportunities will present themselves in this current environment.
The one big change from the last consolidation wave is the cost of capital. Our financial model will factor in both elevated interest rates, as well as reduced maximum leverage and the current valuations across the television sector. Since we have the ability to buy our own assets by buying back our stock, any new transactions being contemplated will have to be more creative than that.
Turning to our business outlook, our business model has evolved significantly, and the stability of our revenue streams remains underappreciated in my view. Given questions surrounding the potential impact of proposed tariffs, and the general economic uncertainty, I thought it might be helpful to take a step back and provide some perspective on just where Nexstar derives its revenues, the sum of which is that the current conditions combined with our business model don't give us much cause for concern at this point in time.
To begin with in the first quarter, which will be a decent barometer for the year, 63% of Nexstar's revenue came from distribution and other revenue sources. This revenue stream is driven by a growing retransmission rates multiplied by the number of subscribers serviced by our distribution partners.
And last quarter we guided for this revenue line to be relatively flat for the year inclusive of subscriber attrition. The remaining 37% of our Q1 revenue was derived primarily from non-political advertising. About 1/5th of our non-political advertising revenue comes from digital advertising, which is comprised of digital CTV advertising on our own inventory, as well as the sale of third-party digital and CTV advertising to our local clients.
This is a revenue stream that has demonstrated consistent growth overall, and we do expect to see that trend continue this year. The other 80% of our advertising revenue comes from television advertising, and the majority of that is from stable local sources where advertising is closely tied to the revenue it generates for the client.
Cut another way, only about 40% of non-political advertising revenue, or 15% of our total revenue is tied to goods-based businesses that could potentially be impacted by tariffs. The remaining 60% of our non-political advertising revenue comes from services and paid programming, which actually grew during the 2018 trade war.
I'm excluding comments on political advertising here, but as demonstrated again in 2024, Nexstar remains a significant beneficiary of the two-year political ad cycle, given our geography and our scale. Turning to the CW, we continue to execute our strategy to drive profitability through a combination of top line growth and expense reductions as our refreshed and reconstituted program lineup continues to drive incremental revenue distribution and advertising revenues.
It's clear that our new content strategy is resonating with audiences as the 2025 first quarter marked the CW's strongest primetime performance in eight quarters. In fact, this season so far, the CW's primetime ratings have surpassed other broadcast networks 74 times across key demos. That's a notable increase compared to the just 17 times for the full '23, '24 primetime season.
WWE NXT is a rating stand up for us in prime time as it generated a 19% increase in audience versus last year's first quarter results on cable. CW Sports is now a core pillar of our programming lineup at the network, and it has grown to include over 400 hours of live sports programming annually in 2025, representing over 40% of the CW's total programming hours.
The NASCAR Xfinity Series racing has quickly become a consistent high performer, with the first 11 races averaging over 1.2 million viewers, representing an increase year over year of 19% compared to last season. In fact, 2025 is the first time in nine years that each of the season's first 11 races delivered an average audience of more than 1 million viewers.
And there are more sports coming. In addition to our existing agreement with the ACC for both football and basketball, we recently announced exclusive broadcast agreements with AVP Volleyball, the new Grand Slap track series featuring names that you got to know at last summer's Olympics, as well as the HBCU All-Star basketball game and the renewal of our agreement with Pac-12 football.
Turning to News Nation, we celebrated the network's four-year anniversary this past quarter, following its successful rebrand in March of 2021. With the 24/7 programming rollout now complete, the network continues to build momentum, growing its audience every month of the first quarter of 2025.
In fact, since December of 2024, News Nation's ratings have outperformed MSNBC 24 times and CNN six times in the key adult 25 to 54 demo. Breaking news and special coverage continue to be key drivers of audience growth across both linear and digital, underscoring the unique competitive advantage of Nexstar's deep and local footprint in facilitating premium on the ground coverage of key national events.
News Nation's special programming is also gaining traction. Last week's town hall with President Trump ranked among the network's TOP5 rated broadcasts ever. While News Nation's second interview special featuring Tucker Carlson and Chris Cuomo garnered garnered more than 2 million total views across all platforms.
In the first quarter, News Nation was added to the White House press pool with our correspondents now asking key questions during daily briefings and aboard Air Force One. That's a significant additional milestone in establishing the network as a trusted national news source.
In summary, next year's first quarter performance reflects a strong start to the year driven by our stable diversified revenue base, disciplined operations, and continued execution across our portfolio. As we move through the rest of 2025, our priorities remain unchanged, renewing distribution agreements covering approximately 60% of our subscriber base,
continuing the CW's path to break even, actively pursuing long overdue deregulation and preparing for elections again in 2026 with unmatched scale, strong pre cash flow, and a proven track record of value creation. We are well positioned to navigate today's challenges and capitalize on the significant opportunities ahead. With all of that said, let me now turn the call over to Mike.