Yahoo Finance

Martina Cheung

Thank you, Mark. S&P Global had a solid first quarter with strong growth in all five of our divisions. Total revenue increased 8% year over year, and revenue from our subscription products increased 7%. We continue to demonstrate disciplined execution, driving year-over-year margin expansion of 240 basis points on a trailing 12-month basis and 9% growth in adjusted diluted EPS. We also continued our strong track record of capital allocation, returning over $900 million to shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and repurchases.
In addition to our strong financial results, we are acting decisively in our portfolio optimization efforts. As you saw us announce earlier this month, we have signed a definitive agreement to divest the OSTTRA joint venture to KKR, which we expect to close in the second half of this year. As we'll discuss in more detail shortly, we have also announced the intent to separate the Mobility division of S&P Global into a stand-alone public company. We expect this separation to be tax-free and to be completed in 12 to 18 months.
We continue to innovate not just in our products themselves, but in how we bring those products to market and how we engage with our customers. We're encouraged by the early indications from our Chief Client office as well as the continued momentum of new products and services introduced in the first quarter. Lastly, we plan to host an Investor Day in November. By November, we expect to have made significant progress on the planned separation of Mobility and we look forward to providing a refreshed view of the multiyear strategy for S&P Global at that time.
Now turning to what we're seeing in the markets and starting with billed issuance. Billed issuance increased 9% year over year in the first quarter. Strength in billed issuance was driven by structured finance and bank loans. While we've continued to see spreads widen year to date, they are still below historical norms, and issuers saw an attractive window to issue debt in the first quarter. We expect billed issuance to moderate from Q1 levels for the remainder of 2025, and we have already seen declines in April.
We believe some of the strength in Q1, particularly in investment grade was driven by the pull forward of some issuance to get ahead of April. We expect the tariff discussion and related market volatility is likely leading to some pushback of issuance as well, both of which put pressure on issuance volumes in the near term.
As we look at the broader macro and commercial conditions, it's clear that we are going through a phase of unpredictable market movements, geopolitical risk and fluidity in the regulatory landscape. It is also clear to us at S&P Global that our customers need us more in times like these, not less. In the first quarter, we saw a significant increase in engagement with our platforms, active users across Capital IQ platforms, Platts Connect and Automotive Masterminds increased on average 23% year over year in the first quarter, and we have continued to see strong engagement through April. Our customers are looking for insights, data and tools to help them navigate. And S&P Global is a destination of choice for decision makers around the world.
We also saw record attendance at two of our marquee conferences in the first quarter. CERAWeek widely considers the world's preeminent energy conference had over 10,000 attendees, including government officials and 1,600 C-Suite executives and Board Directors. For over 40 years, the energy industry has weathered at CERAWeek to confront some of the biggest challenges facing the world. This year was particularly impactful as we saw business leaders and government officials take advantage of our platform to make major product strategy and policy announcements from the CERAWeek stage.
We also had record attendance at our Premier Shipping and Logistics Conference, TPM 25. More than ever, customers need insight into how to effectively manage logistics and supply chains. And it was encouraging to see so many industry leaders gather under the S&P Global banner to share ideas and insights on navigating the current environment.
We know it's not enough to wait for our customers to come to us. So we have continued our proactive outreach to customers through our global commercial teams in conjunction with the Chief Client office. Like many of the individuals on this call, our customers are facing variables that are increasingly difficult to predict week to week. We are seeing a slowing pace of decision-making in the markets compared to our initial expectations. While we and many others expected some improvement in the M&A environment, many of our customers are less confident in both the timing and the magnitude of that recovery this year.
We consistently hear about the pent-up demand, and we maintain strong optimism in the long term, but many customers are trying to stay flexible and preserve optionality in the very near term.
We benefit, however, from the resilience of our business mix. with recurring revenue accounting for approximately 75% of our total revenue, we aren't overly reliant on market-driven factors for our results in any given year. Market volatility can also benefit areas of our business, as you can see in the results of our ETD business and Indices and the Global Trading Services business and Commodity Insights. These derivative products built on the IP of S&P Global's Index and Commodity divisions, are crucial to procurement, hedging and other strategies that see heightened demand in periods of volatility. Many of our products are mission-critical for our customers with annual and multiyear contracts, providing additional stability for our business through the cycle.
Even within our Ratings business, nearly half of our revenue comes from non-transaction revenue, which is more stable, predictable and consistent in its growth during volatile periods. Despite the near-term headwinds facing issuance, we expect continued growth in our non-transaction business in 2025. That said, there are a number of market factors that can have incremental impact on our business in the near term, and it's important to pay close attention to how these factors are evolving over the year. Even with a very strong portfolio of market-leading products and services, we acknowledge the broad market factors like trade conflicts and supply chain risk as well as the evolving geopolitical landscape. These things make it more challenging to foresee or plan for central bank actions or the level of capital markets activity that may take place in 2025.
As we look to the global markets, we continue to see secular trends that will benefit S&P Global, like the continued shift from active to passive management and energy transition. For 2025 specifically, we expect asset prices in the equity market as well as the mix of investment grade versus high yield in the near-term maturity walls see modest headwinds relative to our initial outlook. However, we continue to see other factors like the timing of issuance, market volatility and the fluidity of regulatory actions as having positive impacts on part of our business and modestly negative impacts on others.
The base case assumptions underpinning our outlook for 2025 reflect the changes we've seen in the environment since February. We originally assumed 3% global GDP growth and 2.3% US inflation. Our current view is that GDP growth will be lower than that forecast, though we do not assume a recession. We also expect inflation to be a bit higher than originally assumed in our guidance. We expect crude oil prices to average in the low 70s for the year, slightly above the levels we're seeing now, though we do expect volatility in the coming quarters.
We've had a strong start to the year for billed issuance. But since the end of Q1, we have seen market volatility suppressing volumes, particularly in high yields, and we expect second quarter issuance to decline double digits year over year before returning to more or less flat growth in the second half. As such, we now expect billed issuance to be approximately flat year over year compared to our initial outlook of low single-digit growth.
Maturity walls for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 are still 3% to 5% higher than corresponding walls were a year ago, but our billed issuance assumptions now call for M&A volumes to be flat year over year compared to prior assumptions of modest improvements from 2024. We still see potential for one or more rate cuts from the US Fed in 2025.
As we highlighted last quarter, there is a range of potential outcomes beyond our base case assumptions, but we continue to reflect our current thinking and plan to update and refine as we move through the year. All these things are factored into the guidance as Eric will share with you in a moment.
One of the reasons S&P Global is able to deliver strong financial results through the cycle is our commitment to continued innovation and customer value. The first quarter included some important innovations in data, benchmarks and artificial intelligence. We integrated visible alpha data as an add-on module in Capital IQ Pro, and we were thrilled that the team was able to get this important integration completed and ready for customers a full quarter ahead of schedule. We are also very excited to discuss the launch of eye-level automated data ingestion. This joint innovation between our Market Intelligence and Kensho teams created an AI-powered tool that can pull in data from structured and unstructured sources, tag that data appropriately and load it eye-level.
This makes it faster and easier for customers to manage increasingly complex portfolios across private equity and private credit. Just as importantly, this tool was developed in a way that lets us leverage its capabilities in other products and even in our own internal workflows like our CRM. It's a great example of our cross-divisional teams, creating scalable technology that's built once and deployed everywhere.
We also introduced important benchmarks in our fixed income and franchise, including a first-of-its-kind fixed income index in Europe utilizing rolling fixed maturity credits. In Platts, we introduced new commodity benchmarks in biofuels, fertilizers, chemicals and metals. We encourage you to look through the quarterly release notes to see the continued rapid pace of new products and content in Commodity Insights.
Turning to our financial results. Eric will walk through the first quarter results in more detail in a moment, but we have had an impressive start to 2025. We saw strong growth in every division and 100 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter. Trailing 12-month margins improved 240 basis points to a record 49.3%.
Now turning to the big announcement we made this morning. We're excited to announce today our intent to spin S&P Global's Mobility division into a stand-alone public company. We believe this separation will maximize shareholder value by enhancing S&P Global's strategic focus while creating a scaled and independent mobility business. This decision is a result of a lengthy and very robust internal analysis, and the Board and management team are unanimously aligned that this is the right course of action to create value for our shareholders.
Looking at the financials of both S&P Global's core businesses, and S&D Global Mobility, we see that both have very attractive profiles. S&P Global's four core businesses, Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights and S&P Dow Jones Indices, generated nearly $13 billion in revenue in 2024 at an adjusted operating margin of approximately 50%. Mobility generated $1.6 billion at an adjusted operating margin of nearly 40%. Both businesses have a history of innovation, growth, discipline and strong competitive positioning, and we expect that to continue following the separation. We believe the separation will create some significant advantages for S&P Global going forward.
Our four core divisions have similar characteristics, similar customer profiles, and greater ability to share technological and data resources across them. Our leadership team will be better able to focus attention, energy and resources to accelerate product development and deepen customer relationships while executing against a more unified and cohesive strategy. We're excited to share more about that multiyear strategy at our Investor Day, which we plan to host in New York on November 13.
As a stand-alone public company, we believe the Mobility business will also be better able to execute its long-term growth strategy independent of the priorities of S&P Global. Mobility will be a well-capitalized company, with strong, well-known brands like credit CARFAX, Automotive Mastermind, MarketScan and As our analysts and shareholders know, Mobility has incredible data and technology assets, creating significant customer value for dealerships, automotive OEMs and parts suppliers as well as finance and insurance companies. We've seen significant growth in the users of CARFAX Car Care, now serving over 46 million consumers leveraging more than 35 billion vehicle history records. The vehicle history, forecasting, pricing and incentive data of the mobility business serve 100% of the top automotive OEMs, 94% of the supplier market and includes approximately 72 million lines of monthly forecast. This data and technology is deeply entrenched in the workflows of Mobility customers creating a very strong competitive moat and positioning the business well for profitable long-term growth.
We are particularly encouraged by the resilience this business has demonstrated through the cycle. We acknowledge the additional attention to the automotive space during these times of trade conflict and supply chain disruption, but we remain very confident in the long-term growth of the Mobility business. The secular trends around EV transition, autonomous and software-defined vehicles, shifts in the sales motion of new vehicles and continued growth in the used car markets all have the potential to increase the demand and addressable market of this business. With more than 70% of mobility revenue tied to the used car market and more than 80% of revenue coming from subscription products, we remain confident that despite some of the end market challenges among automotive manufacturers, the Mobility business is largely insulated from direct impact.
We expect both companies to be well capitalized and we will provide the details around capital structure and capital allocation as the transaction progresses. We expect the transaction to qualify as tax-free to shareholders for US federal tax purposes. We anticipate the process taking between 12 and 18 months and will be subject to market conditions and the satisfaction of customary regulatory approvals. We are committed to keeping investors up-to-date as we move through this process, and investors can expect a number of milestones over the next 12 to 18 months.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Eric Aboaf, our new CFO, to review the financial results. Eric, welcome to the call. Over to you.

Eric Aboaf

Thank you, Martina, and good morning, everyone. I'm delighted to be joining for my very first earnings call here at S&P Global and especially pleased to be able to talk through such strong results this quarter.
Starting with slide 18, you'll see on the left panel that we delivered a very strong start to 2025 with solid growth in every division and 9% organic constant currency revenue growth for the company. Revenue growth of 8% and expense growth of 6% allowed us to deliver 100 basis points of margin expansion year over year and 9% in adjusted diluted EPS growth. As Martina mentioned earlier, we continue to engage proactively with customers across the board this quarter while maintaining strict discipline on expenses. That focus and execution helped us to deliver a strong first quarter and also positions us well to deliver strong results for the rest of 2025.
Slide 19 illustrates the progress we continue to make in key strategic growth areas. Sustainability and energy transition revenue grew 20% to $93 million in the quarter, driven by strong demand for Commodity Insights energy transition products and data and insights from Market Intelligence. We continue to see very strong demand for our sustainability offerings in all divisions and saw a number of competitive wins in the quarter, especially around our physical risk solutions.
Moving to private markets. Revenue increased by 21% year over year to $140 million. Growth was driven by debt and bank loan ratings as well as continued strength in eye-level and other private market solutions within Market Intelligence. Private credit continues to be a significant driver of growth for us, and we continue to see strong demand for an S&P Global Rating on debt, whether it is issued in the public or the private markets.
We are also nearing the finish line on our revenue synergies. We exited the first quarter with run rate revenue synergies of $311 million and remain ahead of pace to achieve our target of $350 million by 2026. Finally, we are pleased that we continue to deliver a Vitality Index at or above our 10% target. In the first quarter, we saw contributions from new and enhanced products in every division and are pleased to see the financial impact of the product investments we've made in recent years.
Turning to our divisions. Market Intelligence revenue increased 5% in the first quarter with the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures, creating a roughly 30-basis-point headwind to growth. Revenue from our Data Analytics and Insights products accelerated on both the reported and an organic basis in the first quarter to 7% and 4% year over year, respectively. First quarter revenue in the business line includes the net contribution from Visible Alpha less the lost revenue from the PrimeOne divestiture.
Enterprise Solutions benefited from an increase in issuance volumes in the debt and equity capital markets as well as strong growth in subscription products. Reported revenue growth of 1% includes the impact of $21 million in Fincentric revenue in the year ago period. Excluding that impact, organic growth was 8% year over year.
Credit and Risk Solutions grew 6%, supported by strong new sales and price realization, particularly for Ratings Express subscriptions. Consistent with the commentary we made during our last call, margins were below the full year guidance range in the first quarter, but actually came in slightly better than we initially expected based on some tight expense controls we put in place at the start of the year.
Margins of 32.8% improved slightly year over year. We expect some modest improvement in the quarterly revenue growth rates in 2025 as we progress through the year. We see strong growth in the sales pipeline and stable renewal rates and we expect both of those dynamics to continue as we lap more of the cancellations from 2024. We're also encouraged by the continued momentum we're seeing in our competitive win rates and Market Intelligence as our enterprise approach continues to resonate with more and more customers.
Now turning to Ratings on slide 21. As Martina mentioned earlier, we saw issuers take advantage of favorable financing conditions and open market windows to drive growth in issuance volumes in the first quarter. Q1 was actually the fifth consecutive quarter of more than $1 billion in revenue for our Ratings division. Ratings revenue increased 8% year over year as we saw positive growth across all revenue categories. Transaction revenue grew by 7% in the first quarter as heightened refinancing activity increased bank loan and structured finance fees.
Non-transaction revenue increased 10% primarily due to an increase in annual fee revenue and elevated issuer credit rating or ICR revenue. Importantly, much of our growth in ICR came from private market mandates as more and more participants in the private markets are looking to capture the value that comes from an S&P Global rating. Given the pullback we've seen in April issuance volumes, we do expect billed issuance to be down low double digits in the second quarter and flattish in the second half. This will primarily impact the cadence of transaction revenue while non-transaction revenue continues to grow at a healthy pace each quarter. As Martina mentioned earlier, we benefit from the strong base of non-transaction revenue in our Ratings business and we expect non-transaction revenue to grow faster than transaction revenue in a year like 2025.
That provides some additional stability to our Ratings business through the cycle.
Adjusted expenses increased only 4% in the quarter. We continue to actively monitor the issuance environment and manage expense levers in our market-driven businesses tightly to preserve margins and ensure we're positioned to deliver against the profitability targets we set out for 2025.
Now turning to Commodity Insights. Revenue increased 9% following the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in energy and resource data and insights. Price assessments and data and insights grew 8% and 10%, respectively. We continue to see commercial momentum as we transition more customers to enterprise contract relationships. We are approximately one quarter of the way through the eligible customer base in that transition and expect to be nearly halfway through by year-end.
Advisory and transactional services revenue grew 19%. As Martina noted earlier, times of volatility and uncertainty drive increased demand for a number of our products, and we saw this positive impact in the first quarter. We had a record quarter in Global Trading Services and record attendance at CERAWeek, both of which contributed to the outsized growth we saw here too.
Upstream Data and Insights revenue grew by 1% year over year, with growth tempered by somewhat elevated cancellations due to the customer consolidation we've seen in the energy space. We expect that consolidation to impact upstream a bit more in the remaining quarters of 2025. Adjusted expenses increased 8% due to higher compensation costs and ongoing investment in growth initiatives. Operating profit for Commodity Insights increased 11% and operating margin improved by 90 basis points to 48.1%.
Now turning to Mobility. Revenue increased 9% year over year, but this includes a roughly 70-basis-point headwind from currency impacts, largely due to exposure to the Canadian dollar. Dealer revenue increased 11% year over year, driven by new business growth in products such as CARFAX and Automotive Mastermind. Dealer revenue benefits from its higher exposure to the used car market, which is generally more resilient for this cycle than the new car market. Manufacturing increased 1%, with growth impacted by the decline in the transaction revenue related to the recall business.
As a reminder, we began calling out the impact of the decline in recalls earlier last year and will lap that impact beginning in the second quarter.
Financials and other increased 11% as the business line continues to benefit from strong underwriting volumes and commercial momentum. Adjusted expenses increased 8% due primarily to the increased advertising and promotional investment. That investment has helped drive significant growth in CARFAX Car Care, which now has approximately 46 million users, a nearly 65% increase since our Investor Day in 2022. Margins for the segment improved 40 basis points year over year to 38.5%.
Now turning to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Revenue increased 15%, primarily due to strong growth in asset-linked fees, which benefited from higher AUM and continued strength in exchange-traded derivative revenue. Revenue associated with asset-linked fees was up a strong 18% in the first quarter. This was driven by higher ETF and mutual fund AUM, benefiting from both market appreciation and net inflows. As a reminder, there is a slight delay in revenue recognition in our asset-linked fees, which allows us to continue benefiting from higher equity valuations we saw during the fourth quarter of last year.
We do expect growth in asset-linked fees to moderate in Q2 and beyond given the declines we've seen in market valuations since we gave our initial guidance.
Exchange-traded derivatives revenue grew 11%, primarily driven by the strong volumes in SPX products and price realization. Data and custom subscriptions increased 7% year over year, driven by new business growth in end-of-day contracts, which saw mid-teens growth in the quarter. Revenue from custom subscriptions, however, somewhat offset the very strong growth in contracts. Adjusted expenses increased 15% year over year, primarily due to increased investments in strategic growth initiatives as well as an increase in compensation expense. Indices operating profit increased 15% and operating margin remained unchanged year over year at a very strong 72.9%.
Now turning to guidance. Given our new debt issuance expectations, and the current equity market levels. Slide 25 outlines our enterprise guidance on a GAAP and adjusted basis. We are now expecting total revenue growth in the range of 4% to 6%, with adjusted margins in the range of 48.5% to 49.5%. We remain confident in our ability to deliver solid revenue growth, strong margins and growth in adjusted EPS this year.
As I'll discuss on the next slide, we do expect slightly lower growth in Ratings and Indices, our two market-driven and highest margin businesses, but we plan to manage expenses so that we can preserve margin guidance in all five divisions this year. However, due to the planned closing of the OSTTRA sale later this year, we will see slightly lower operating income with no corresponding revenue impact, which will directly impact margins for the year. The OSTTRA impact and the mix shift in revenue are the primary drivers for the change to our enterprise margin guidance.
We expect to use the proceeds from OSTTRA for additional share repurchases, which will offset much of the EPS impact, and our discipline on both expenses and strong capital returns allows us to keep the high end of our EPS guidance intact. Given the market volatility and variability in our market-driven businesses, we think it's prudent to widen the range a bit and now expect adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $16.75 to $17.25.
Moving to our division outlook. Our revenue guidance for Market Intelligence is unchanged. For ratings, based on the current expectation for flattish billed issuance this year, we expect revenue growth to be flat to up 4%, slightly lower, but also a slightly broader range compared to our previous guidance. Revenue guidance for Commodity Insights and Mobility are also unchanged.
For indices, we've obviously seen the market pullback, particularly in US equities since we gave our initial guidance. Given that pullback, we now expect revenue growth in the range of 5% to 7%. This guidance assumes the S&P 500 is flat from April 15 through the end of the year. Modest growth in ETD volumes and subscription growth similar to what we saw in the first quarter.
On the next slide, we are reiterating the margin outlook for all five of our divisions. While we do expect somewhat lower revenue in Ratings and Indices, we expect to offset that impact with expense discipline and modest adjustments to incentive compensation. We have multiple levers that we can pull as needed this year, and we've proactively identified and prioritized those. We want to make sure we are prudent and don't pull them too early or too aggressively though, and preserve our ability to invest in the important revenue growth opportunities we see over the next few years.
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Mark for your questions.

Mark Grant

Thank you, Eric. (Event Instructions) Operator, we will now take the first question.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

Toni Kaplan

Congratulations on the Mobility announcement. I was hoping you could just give some color on timing. So why now? And then maybe the implementations for RemainCo, are there any data sets that you'll continue to try to license from the spun entity once that happens? And then I know it's early, but any initial thoughts on dis-synergies?

Martina Cheung

Toni, it's Martina. Thanks for the question. Well, as I mentioned during the prepared remarks, this is something that we have been thinking about very deeply for some time. We've done an incredibly deep and rigorous assessment, including multiple rounds of dialogue around this with our Board of Directors and consulting with external advisers on this also. So we've come to the conclusion that this is the best path to long-term shareholder value and that the tax-free spin here is the right path forward for us.
I would say, certainly would have more details with respect to data sets that we would license. At this point, we're very much in the mode of business as usual and continuing to focus while the process is running in the background.

Eric Aboaf

And Toni, it's Eric. We've obviously done an initial look at the financials. As you can expect, the carve-out process has begun and is fairly intense. High-level view of dissynergies, stranded costs and so forth suggest that they're relatively material to our overall financials. But those are the kinds of topics we'll update you on as we move along later this summer, this fall and into next spring.

Operator

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy

I wanted to ask about Market Intelligence and your confidence in the ability to accelerate revenue as we go through the year. Maybe you can comment on what you're hearing from your customers? How bookings have trended? And any other color around the end markets?

Martina Cheung

Faiza, thanks for the question. We have had a very good start to the year with Market Intelligence and been quite encouraged with several of the core metrics there, including some of the ones that Eric mentioned. We've seen stable retention rates, good sales pipelines and ACV faster than revenue, which, of course, is a great indicator for the strength of the business going forward. Remember that Eric also mentioned we will be lapping 2024 early year cancels as we go throughout the year. That gives us a lot of confidence in an acceleration, as we had indicated in our last call for a stronger second half compared to first half of the year.
So good indications there. From a customer standpoint, we have made several, I would say, improvements to how the sales teams are aligned to customers, particularly from an account management standpoint, that has really helped teams to have more direct connections and engagement with the customers. And we've been hearing very positive feedback on that realignment, also hearing very positive feedback on joint go-to-market between the Market Intelligence sales teams and our Chief Commercial Office. And we're starting to see some great deals there. So we, for example, closed a large counterparty manager deal with a large investment bank.
In the quarter, we also closed a large primary market issue book deal with a commercial bank in the first quarter. So all in good momentum, good first quarter, and we'll continue moving ahead. Ta the question.

Operator

Surinder Thind, Jefferies.

Surinder Thind

Eric, could you maybe talk about the levers as you guys talk about managing expenses and or some of the puts and takes might be in the range of expectations?

Eric Aboaf

Sure. The levers here are, as you'd expect and then the ones that we've actually, I think, pulled and addressed over the last couple of years during the ups and downs of the environment but also the same ones that you'd expect at any well-run company. Clearly, headcount and hiring for backfills is a lever that we monitor closely, especially in this environment where there's uncertainty, there is incentive compensation, which will float up and down with revenue and performance. There's a third-party spend, professional services, obviously, which has a degree of flexibility. And then finally, there is investments, though I think those are the ones that we typically want to protect except in very extreme circumstances.
So part of what I've done is I've settled in over the last two months is literally spent time division by division, circling those, making sure we're ready, selectively making some tactical adjustments. That's the -- those are the areas where we're vigilant. We'll continue to stay vigilant and disciplined during this environment.

Operator

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

Ashish Sabadra

On the issuance guidance, thanks for providing that incremental color on M&A assumptions. My question was the flat issuance assumptions for the back half of the year. Does that include any kind of pull forward or what are your assumptions around high-yield spreads as well as rate volatility?

Martina Cheung

Thanks for the question. Well, as we mentioned, we would expect our billed issuance to be roughly flat for the full year. So modestly more cautious than what we had during our last call. Maybe I can break it down a little bit for you. So from a refi standpoint, we still expect the '25 refis to go ahead.
We saw a little bit, we think, in pull forward in investment grades ahead of April. But broadly speaking, we're seeing the '25 refis come to market as we considered what we have less expectation of this year is pull forward from 2026 and beyond, especially for high yields, you would have less of an incentive to come to market in a volatile environment.
On the M&A piece, we did say flat year over year. I think it's worth mentioning, we still see potential for some opportunistic issuance, although we've moderated that a little bit in the full year guide that we provided for billed issuance. And I think maybe the last point I would make on this is, as we know, this is incredibly difficult to predict at this point. There are risks to the downside and the upside on this. I mean, look, contemplated in our range is there's a possibility of negative year-over-year growth, for example, in transaction revenues.
However, there's also risk to the upside. We know that there's a lot of pent-up demand in M&A. And so we think from a timing standpoint, it's more likely at this point to hit in 2026, but we know issuers are good at coming to market when they see an opportunity. And so it's possible we could see some of that this year in the second half as well. Thanks for your question, Ashish.

Operator

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman

Two quick ones. One, what's the share count implied in the '25 guide? And did it change since February? And secondly, you talked a lot about the strong balance sheet and the share buyback activity. What's the view on S&P's M&A ambitions at this point?

Eric Aboaf

Andrew, let me take the first part of that question. I think for share count, you just start with the share count as it's disclosed factor in the buybacks at reasonable price expectations and then just calculate that going forward for the quarters and the rest of the year, and I think you should be able to get to what you need.

Martina Cheung

Great. Andrew, regarding your question on M&A ambitions going forward, I'd reiterate a point that I made on the last call, which is we certainly have no intention of any type of transformative M&A as we go forward. We're really focused on what we think are very high-quality organic growth opportunities within each of the divisions and across the divisions, and that's where we're executing as we go throughout the year. I would say consistent with how we have taken advantage of certain opportunities in the past. If we see a tuck-in that is very attractive for either a core business or very attractive for one of our strategic growth teams, of course, we would consider that.
And of course, we always do that through the lens of shareholder value as well as the value we create for our customers. Thanks for the question, Andrew.

Operator

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

Scott Wurtzel

I just wanted to touch on the topic of private credit and wondering if you can share how that performed on the rating side relative to expectations during the quarter? And maybe talk about what you're assuming in terms of growth contribution from private credit for the balance of the year?

Martina Cheung

Scott, it's Martina. Thanks for the question. Well, we continue to execute at the highest level as we can and are happy with the performance that we've seen in private credit overall across the organization through the really strong products we have and Ratings in Market Intelligence as well as opportunities for our benchmarks in index. Specifically in Ratings, we've always said that we would rate the business or the deals wherever they come. And we've made very good strides with the majority of the sponsors that we've engaged with.
There are a lot of -- there's a lot of demand, as Eric said in his remarks, for an S&P Rating, whether it's public or private. And so that's been, I think, a strong contribution. We've cited the mix there in the past. We've certainly seen some great results in middle-market CLOs, for example, in NAVs and other private credit opportunities. I would say for the remainder of the year, just given some of the really tough year-over-year comps as well as a little bit of moderation in the environment around issuance generally, I wouldn't say we have heroic assumptions for growth specifically in private credit for the remainder of this year.
Thanks for your question, Scott.

Operator

Alex Kramm, UBS.

Alex Kramm

Kind of have another boring cost question, but it is Eric's first call, so I think it's okay. But -- it sounds like you mentioned that all the work on the cost base so far has been more as a -- do we need to pull any sort of levers to show margin expansion, et cetera, if the environment is a little bit tougher. Just wondering how you think about the cost base holistically. I know it's only been a couple of months for you, but obviously, you come from a lower margin company. And look, I think over -- if you compare some of the peers, in particular, Market Intelligence, the margins don't compare as well anymore for S&P Global.
So given that you have a history of cost programs in a couple of years, you did a big transaction a few years ago. I was just wondering if there's room for maybe a more holistic rebasing of the cost program and where that will come from?

Eric Aboaf

Alex, it's Eric. Thank you for the question. As you say, in every company, and this one included, there's typically -- and I've seen it here already a recent history over the last few years, but certainly embedded in our budgets for this year and our guidance for this year to do more than just rush headcount up or down. That's not what we're focused on. That we do for -- to make tactical adjustments during the year.
I think what I've started to appreciate is that there's a range of initiatives that we've launched over the last year across our various businesses, some of those -- as you know, for example, in MI, we've been removing silos, simplifying operations, consolidating areas of activities in other areas like Commodities Insights. We've had a real push on using GenAI for productivity and some of the analytical and research functions. So there is some systemic efforts underway that I think are part of what will help us deliver our expectations and guidance for this year. To the question of, is there more? Well, there's always more to do, and that's the kind of work that we start planning on now for next year, and we'll start planning on next year for the year after because it's a muscle that's, I think, developed here, but we can continue to refine it, and that's what the management team will do together.

Operator

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

Manav Patnaik

Martina, I just wanted to confirm, I mean, it sounds like from everything you're saying, you're not yet seeing any major changes in your customer behavior. So I was just hoping you could just help elaborate on that, maybe focusing more on the MI and subscription businesses really?

Martina Cheung

Yes. Thanks, Manav, and that is true when it comes to the subscription businesses. Clearly, in this kind of environment, we've signaled that we see some behavioral changes in Ratings, for example, as I mentioned, with some issuers on the sidelines. So we certainly see that downside in the market sensitive areas like Ratings and a little bit in index as well. I would say that we're paying really close attention to the subscription businesses and going very closely at this, obviously, by sector.
The fact that we have, for the most part, multiyear deals really serves as a ballast in times like this. But of course, we have to be very strongly engaged with our customers to get events for when there may be more pressures. One of the other things that we've been extremely disciplined about since last year is making sure that we're positioned increasingly to benefit from vendor consolidation opportunities. And we have heard in a couple of recent discussions with large clients that they may be accelerating vendor consolidation. And of course, we're prioritized there through the work that we've been doing as well with the Chief Client Office.
And so those are some examples. I would also say that there are upside opportunities. We have, as you know, some of the strongest supply chain data around multiple sectors, regions. We also just simply by virtue of what we do are being used -- our data is being used by our clients even more. We saw that in the very significant uptick year over year in platform usage, for example, across MI and CI as well as Mobility in the first quarter.
So overall, we're watching very closely. We don't see massive changes in behavior. We're certainly not hearing that from our customers and engaging very, very strongly to make sure we're positioned for growth opportunities as they arise.

Operator

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

George Tong

You mentioned you're not seeing any major changes in customer behaviors. Can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing with pipeline performance and sales cycles?

Martina Cheung

Yes. George, it's Martina. We are right now seeing our sales pipelines as expected. And that is one of the things that gives us very good confidence as we think about our subscription businesses throughout the rest of the year. Again, I think the behaviors as we've engaged more closely with our customers across the divisions, all the way from our division presidents down through the sales teams to the extent that we're hearing places where our customers may be feeling more or less pressure.
A lot of times, we are positioned to benefit from better consolidation efforts, for example, definitely something that we're paying very close attention to. And I think what comes in line with this, and I mentioned it, in particular, for example, for MI, but also the other divisions is that we're seeing quite stable renewal performance, particularly in Market Intelligence, where that is something that we had highlighted as core objective for this year. And between that and the fact that we'll be lapping some counsel for early '24, we see that as good indicators for a strong second half in MI in particular.

Operator

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

Tom Roesch

This is Tom Roesch on for Andrew Nicolas. I was wondering if you could touch on the Commodity Insights end markets and kind of what you're seeing there? And then also, are you expecting any pressure from tariffs such as trade war in general in that segment on the end markets?

Martina Cheung

Thomas, it's Martina. Thank you for the question. I think we've seen really strong growth in Commodity Insights so far this year. We've benefited across businesses as a result of some of the unique data that we have. We've been able to launch new price assessments in a number of areas like biofuels, ag, et cetera.
And we highlighted the particular strength also of the energy transition and sustainability parts of that business where our growth in CI with the combination of the Commodity Insights, data, et cetera, with the sustainability data is now beginning to give the team opportunities to launch new innovative products also. One example there is we recently launched a product that integrates our climate risk analytics on to our ag data so that our users can actually understand the impact of extreme weather events on crops, for example. So really unique and differentiated insights not only in the products that we offer today, but also in what we're rolling out as we go forward. So strong performance there, strong engagement with our clients. Clearly Eric mentioned that there is a little bit of consolidation in upstream.
That's something that we've contemplated as part of the full year guidance that we're giving. And then I think pressures from tariffs, if I were to take a little bit of a step back on this. I think generally speaking, we certainly would be watching very closely, working closely with our customers. These are the types of areas where our customers will actually use the data more. We saw really strong uptick, for example, in usage of CaxConnect in Q1.
And obviously, we see that upside as well through the GTS revenues, which had very strong results in the first quarter. So largely insulated, I would say, Thomas, specifically from the direct impacts of the tariffs, but clearly, we're very strongly engaged with our customers to make sure that we don't see anything else that we would need to address going forward. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

Craig Huber

Just want to get back, if I could, on Mobility question in the whole why-now and stuff. I mean, obviously, in the past, you guys have talked about it being a core part of operations. It's done really well underneath S&P. I'm just wondering, again, just us elaborate a little bit further. What's changed here why you want to spin it off now and stuff?
I mean in the past, you said it was core. Now it's not core. I'm just trying to understand better. Obviously, your stock is moved in line, right in line with the S&P 500 here over the last 24 months. I mean a lot of stocks would love to have that sort of performance. I mean just what's changed a little bit more there.
(technical difficulty)

Martina Cheung

Craig, I'm going to take your question and respond to it from the top again. I think we lost audio there momentarily. You're asking why now and what's changed. I would say this is something we've been thinking about for quite some time. We've done a very rigorous and deep analysis around this.
To be clear, the mobility business is a phenomenal business. It has a very long history of innovation, of strong growth, and it's got incredibly talented leaders across the business. We believe that the plan to do a tax-free spin is really the best opportunity for long-term shareholder value here. It allows Mobility to pursue its profitable growth trajectory and for S&P Global, excluding Mobility, allows our four core divisions to grow and be very closely aligned with our strategy. So that's really the thinking here, Craig.
Thanks for the question.

Operator

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

Owen Lau

I actually have two quick questions here. The first one is, could you please talk about how do you bridge the flat billed business 0% to 4% ratings revenue growth. Is it mainly driven by pricing or there's another -- like some mix shift going on that we should be aware of?
And then the second part is about the sale of OSTTRA. Could you please talk about how do you plan to use the proceeds? And if there's any -- if there's additional buyback, have you baked that into your guidance?

Martina Cheung

Owen, thanks for the question. I'll take the first one and then hand over to Eric. So the revenue guidance at 0% to 4% for Ratings. Obviously, we've widened the range there. And that really contemplates the possible variety of ways in which billed issuance could shape up.
So we wanted to be prudent in how we were guiding for the full year grown revenues. To be clear, the path back to the 0% to 4% is informed by our expectations for the rest of the year in the non-transaction side, which we expect to grow around the mid-single-digit range. And then there are a variety of potential scenarios on the billed issuance side with risk both the upside and downside as I had mentioned earlier in the call. So that's the path back to that wider range of 0% to 4%.

Eric Aboaf

And Owen, just to follow up on OSTTRA. We're very pleased to have announced the sale. It will bring in proceeds of about $1.4 billion on an after-tax net basis. And we expect to close sometime this fall, and expect to use those proceeds for additional buybacks in the latter part of the year, and it is included in our overall guidance.

Operator

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber

I had a question on your guidance, specifically looking at the free cash flow. I realize you reduced guidance slightly for revenue growth and operating profit margin. But it looks like the reduction in guidance for free cash flow is in excess of that despite the fact that you're also expecting about $10 million less in CapEx. Is there something going on in the free cash flow line that's different from three months ago that we should be aware of?

Eric Aboaf

Jeff, it's Eric. There are just some puts and takes in there, in particular, some timing on taxes, working capital and so forth that are just realigning that a little bit. Obviously, if those change -- those tend to change now and then, and we just thought it would be appropriate update given what -- given the headlights we now have.

Operator

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel Nicolaus.

Shlomo Rosenbaum

Martina, maybe you could give us a little bit of inside on how you kind of set the guidance. It seems like the changes are in readings and indices, which are already seeing some impact from the environment, but the other ones you're leaving at the same, is leaving it the same just because you have not seen an impact yet? Or is leaving the guidance in the other divisions because you are looking at the range of outcomes and the kind of net back to neutral. I'm just trying to understand your thinking over there.

Martina Cheung

Thanks for the question. I would say we spent quite a lot of time bottom up with all of the divisions, understanding what we're seeing in key metrics, whether it's renewals, retention, cancels, new sales pipelines, et cetera, and really been quite rigorous in thinking about any potential impacts. And this is contemplated essentially in the full year, including in the changes to Ratings and maintaining the other divisions. But we don't net out at the aggregate level. We go bottom up division by division to get to the answer.
So hopefully, that helps.

Operator

Russell Quelch, Redburn Atlantic.

Russell Quelch

I appreciate the impact of the lower equity markets have on Indices revenue outlook. I wanted to pick up on the 9% growth in data and custom subscription revenues in Q1 within the Index business. That looks like the highest print you've ever reported in that line in terms of growth. So are you managing to drive competitive displacement in benchmark index subscriptions. If so, maybe what areas is that more pricing? And maybe could that help offset some of the pressure on asset-linked fees as we look out for the rest of the year?

Eric Aboaf

Russell, it's Eric. We're quite pleased with the performance of indices this quarter in aggregate and across its various product lines. Part of what boosted the in customer subscriptions line was end-of-day data, which is quite rich in terms of what we provide and quite valuable for our clients and saw some real uptick there. It was largely offset by some custom data feeds that that came in a little lower. But overall, we're pleased with the performance.

Operator

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

Jason Haas

I'm curious if you talk about the sensitivity of the Mobility business to auto tariffs, have you seen any impact that so far, the conversations with your customers changing at all? How do you expect that to trend going forward?

Martina Cheung

Jason, thanks for the question. This is obviously something we're paying very close attention to. Maybe just to give some color around firstly, what we think is happening and likely to happen in the automotive sector. So we certainly see pressures in reduced imports potential for lower actual manufacturing in some cases for a variety of different reasons, including imported components, et cetera. And so that could put downward pressure on existing inventories, upward pressure on prices.
And so we would expect and we are anticipating that there could be some budget pressures, for example, in dialogue with our OEM manufacturing clients. However, recall that this is largely on a subscription basis. And there, we are reasonably insulated from those impacts, but we're also very much engaged with helping our manufacturer clients to actually navigate this journey. The other point that I would make is the business overall is about 70% used car-related. And there, we actually see that the used car market could actually benefit from some of this anticipated change in higher prices for new cars and lower inventory for new cars.
So that's another piece of this. And of course, the vehicle history to vehicle pricing, the incentive sales and marketing data, these are all really critical data sets for dealers, particularly in this kind of environment. So all in all, we're paying close attention. We certainly see some pressure on our end customers, but we are not directly impacted by that at this point. And that's one of the reasons why you see us maintain and have confidence in our guide for the full year.
Thanks for the question, Jason.

Operator

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

Jeff Meuler

Maybe just taking a step back as the portfolio gets to steadier state just given the number of divestitures, including some of the smaller businesses within the segments and the forced divestitures. I guess what are the -- how would you summarize the most important capabilities acquired at this point from the IHS Markit acquisition? And where do they show up the most in financials? I'm guessing private markets and energy transition growth are in part enabled by that, but just how would you summarize that overall?

Martina Cheung

Jeff, thanks for the question. Well, IHS Markit from an acquisition standpoint, benefited us tremendously across three of our four divisions ex Mobility. The areas where we've seen incredible positive momentum. First, if we start with S&P Dow Jones and the iBox franchise that has very -- in fixed income, for example, and we've been able to launch really new innovative products there, including the ability to enhance our multi-asset class offerings within Market Intelligence, products across including our enterprise solution products. We also have incredibly strong maritime data that came in, which, of course, is so critical now.
And the private credit capabilities, as you mentioned, be at Wall Street office or eye-level and the valuations business. So these are -- I mean, it's really just a huge number of very high-value, high-growth products there in Market Intelligence that came through the acquisition. And of course, in Commodity Insights, this is a business that is really 360 commodities we were able to round out our capabilities in several areas, including petrochemicals, including in the renewables area as part of the merger between the Energy Resources business and Platts, and we're so well positioned. And last but not least, of course, CERAWeek, which has given us just such an incredible stage from which to host these amazing dialogues every year. So this has been, I think, very, very important for us and incredibly important for our growth going forward.
And of course, you see that with Eric's comment earlier that we're about 90% of the revenue synergies that we had anticipated from the deal, which continues to perform very well.

Operator

Sean Kennedy, Mizuho.

Sean Kennedy

So I was wondering how a sustained period of lower oil and other energy prices might affect many Insights growth and how it may be different versus the last period of lower energy prices in 2020?

Martina Cheung

Thanks, Sean, it's Martina here. What I would say is our business doesn't move directly in line with the price of commodities. So we charge a license or subscription for the use of the price assessments, whether it's oil or natural gas or any of the other many, many dozens of commodity prices that we price on a daily basis. So I would say at its most extreme to the extent that the price got so low and impacted actual providers or resulted in bankruptcies or shutdowns. I mean that certainly you would see maybe some impact there.
Remember, though, our view for this year is that we expect prices to be in the low 70s, which is actually a little bit higher than where they are right now. All of that is contemplated in the guide that we provided, and we don't see at this point of the year, massive downside or upside from that expected price range.

Operator

Joshua Dennerlein, Bank of America.

Joshua Dennerlein

Martina, you briefly touched on it. Would it be great to hear a bigger update on the Chief Client Office role and how those conversations are progressing with clients? And then any kind of early wins you can share from that office?

Martina Cheung

Yes. Josh. Well, we're progressing, I would say, very nicely with Chief Client Office. We are across the board, including all of our division presidents out engaging with our senior clients -- senior executives at our largest strategic clients in partnership with the Chief Client Office. And I would say that it's positioned us, as I mentioned a little bit earlier in the call really strongly for certainly for opportunities around vendor consolidation.
But we've also seen strong renewals in some cases for very large deals and also new business, which is really exciting, several to mention. One example is a large deal with an investment bank for counterparty manager and other for primary markets issue book for a large commercial bank, multiyear, multimillion dollar new deal that we've won for corporate actions for another bank. And so really interesting. We're continuing to build pipelines across all sectors. We've certainly seen some really nice early wins in the -- in financial clients, but we'll continue to build out across all sectors as we go throughout the year.
So it's encouraging, and I think we're off to a good start there with that effort. And that is -- I'll wrap up with that one. Thank you so much for your question, Josh.
So I will just say thanks so much to everybody who joined the call today for your questions. We've had a very impressive start year, and we're excited to continue executing throughout the course of the year. I do want to welcome Eric and thanks him for a phenomenal first call. We're very excited to have him on board and mostly also thank you so much to our customers and to our employees.
And with that, we will close the call. Thank you.