Q2 2025 TransDigm Group Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Jamie Stemen; Investor Relation; TransDigm Group Inc

Kevin Stein; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; TransDigm Group Inc

Michael Lisman; Co-Chief Operating Officer; TransDigm Group Inc

Sarah Wynne; Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer; TransDigm Group Inc

Robert Stallard; Analyst; Vertical Research Partners

Scott Mikus; Analyst; Melius Research LLC

Christine Liwang; Analyst; Morgan Stanley

Sheila Kahyaoglu; Analyst; Jefferies LLC

Ken Herbert; Analyst; RBC Capital Markets

Myles Walton; Analyst; Wolfe Research LLC

Peter Armet; Analyst; Baird

Seth Seiman; Analyst; JP Morgan

Noah Poponak; Analyst; Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Gautam Khanna; Analyst; TD Cowen

Ronald Epstein; Analyst; Bank of America

Jason Gursky; Analyst; Citigroup Inc

Michael Ciarmoli; Analyst; Truist Securities

Presentation

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Q2 2025 TransDigm Group Inc. earnings conference call. (Operator instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today. Jamie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jamie Stemen

Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's fiscal 2025 second quarter earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Stein; Co-Chief Operating Officer, Mike Lisman; and Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne. Also present for the call today is our Co-Chief Operating Officer, Joel Reiss.
Please visit our website at transdigm.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information. Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward-looking statements.
For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investors section of our website or at sec.gov.
The completion would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA as defined, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations.
I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

Kevin Stein

Good morning. Thanks for calling in today. First, I'll start off with a brief overview of our recent organizational announcement, then the usual quick overview of our strategy, a few comments about the quarter and discuss our fiscal '25 outlook.
Then Mike and Sarah will give additional color on the quarter. As you may have seen, we announced this morning that I will retire at the end of TransDigm's 2025 fiscal year. Beyond that, I will continue to serve as an adviser to the company through March 31, 2026, to help facilitate the leadership transition.
Additionally, I will continue to serve as a member of TransDigm's Board of Directors. It has been a privilege to lead TransDigm as CEO of these past seven years. TransDigm is an exceptional company and I immensely enjoyed the opportunity to see it grow and generate value for its shareholders.
I look forward to finishing out my last few months as CEO and continuing my involvement with TransDigm's Board member. I will be leaving TransDigm in very good hands as Mike Lisman has been elected by the Board of Directors to be our new CEO effective October 1, 2025. At that time, Mike will become responsible for all operational and financial matters.
All our operating executives as well as the CFO will report to Mike. This succession planning has been in the works for some time, and we were very excited to promote an internally developed long-tenured employee into the position of CEO. Mike has served as TransDigm's Co-COO since May of 2023.
Prior to that, he held several positions across the company, including that of CFO and Executive Vice President with direction -- with direct operational oversight for a number of our operating units. Mike also previously held roles as the lead of TransDigm's M&A team and as a business unit manager at our Aero Fluid Products operating unit.
Mike understands our unique culture and process and embraces our long-term value-generating strategy. He has contributed substantially to the value that TransDigm has created over his tenure. Mike is an excellent choice to lead TransDigm.
I am confident he will do an outstanding job and continue to create the kind of value that has been the long-term hallmark of TransDigm. Now moving on to the business of today. To reiterate, we believe we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in both good times and bad as well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle.
To summarize, here are some of the reasons why we believe this. About 90% of our net sales are generated by unique proprietary products. Most of our EBITDA comes from aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins and over any extended period have typically provided relative stability in the downturns.
We follow a consistent long-term strategy specifically. First, we own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. Second, we utilize a simple, well-proven, value-based operating methodology. Third, we have a decentralized organizational structure and a unique compensation system closely aligned with shareholders.
Fourth, we acquire businesses that fit the strategy and where we see a clear path to PE-like returns. And lastly, our capital structure and allocation are a key part of our value creation methodology. Our long-term goal is to give our shareholders private equity-like returns with the liquidity of a public market.
To do this, we stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital. As you saw from our earnings release, we had a strong Q2. During the quarter, we saw a healthy growth in the revenues for both our commercial aftermarket and defense market channels.
Commercial OEM revenues this quarter were about flat with the prior year. Sequentially, both revenues and bookings improved in all three of our major market channels. Commercial aerospace market trends remain favorable. It's currently a very dynamic macroeconomic environment. But to this point, airline schedules continue to be fairly stable.
In the commercial OEM market, there is still much progress to be made for OEM rates, and our results continue to be adversely affected by OEM performance. Airline demand for new aircraft remains high, and the OEM backlog remain considerable.
OEMs are working to increase aircraft production to meet this demand. Boeing aircraft production rates are still well below pre-pandemic levels, the nearly two-month long machine is strike last fall further delayed the recovery. However, there has been steady progress in Boeing's production rates, which is a positive sign.
Our EBITDA as defined margin was 54% in the quarter, contributing to the strong Q2 margin is the continued strength in our commercial aftermarket, along with diligent focus on our operating strategy, which is allowing margin performance to expand across all segments.
Additionally, we ended the quarter with a strong cash balance of over $2.4 billion. We expect to steadily generate significant additional cash throughout the remainder of 2025. Next, an update on our capital allocation activities and priorities.
During Q2, we opportunistically deployed just over $50 million of capital via open market repurchases of our common stock. This equates to approximately 40,000 of our shares at an average price of $1,250 per share. Additionally, after the quarter end, we deployed about $130 million of capital in early April to repurchase just over 100,000 of our shares at an average price of $1,241 per share.
We view these purchases like any other capital investment and expect that they will meet or exceed our long-term return objectives. Regarding the current M&A activities and pipeline, we continue to actively look for M&A opportunities that fit our model.
As we look out over the immediate time horizon, we continue to see an expanding pipeline of potential M&A targets, and we do not see this environment slowing in the near term. As usual, the potential targets are mostly in the small and midsize range, and TransDigm remains disciplined in our approach to M&A.
I cannot predict or comment on possible closings, but we remain confident that there is a long runway for acquisitions that fit our portfolio. The capital allocation priorities of TransDigm are unchanged. Our first priority is to reinvest in our businesses, second, do accretive disciplined M&A; and third, return capital to our shareholders via share purchases or dividends.
The fourth option paying down debt seems unlikely at this time, though we do still take this into consideration. We are continually evaluating all of our capital allocation options but both M&A and capital markets are difficult to predict.
As always, we continue to closely monitor the capital markets and remain opportunistic. As mentioned earlier, we ended the quarter with a sizable cash balance of over $2.4 billion. We have significant liquidity and financial flexibility to meet any likely range of capital requirements or other opportunities in the readily foreseeable future.
Moving to our outlook for fiscal '25. The guidance assumes no additional acquisitions or divestitures and is based on current expectations for continued performance in our primary commercial end markets throughout fiscal '25. Although we saw strong second quarter results, we are not changing our full year financial guidance for fiscal 2025 at this time.
This may be conservative and the time will tell. The guidance incorporates the impact of recently enacted US and non-US tariffs. Based upon what we know today, we do not anticipate a material headwind from tariffs that we are unable to mitigate.
As you know, TransDigm is largely a domestic manufacturer with limited exposure to low-cost country sources. The full year guidance assumes no significant macroeconomic impacts or other factors such as an economic recession that could affect our business.
Additionally, we do not know what the indirect impact of tariffs could have on other parts of the aerospace supply chain, including OEM production rates. Our guidance can be found on slide 6 in the presentation, and I will also discuss here. The midpoint of our fiscal '25 revenue guidance is $8.85 billion or up approximately 11%.
In regards to the market channel growth rate assumptions that this revenue guidance is based on for the commercial OEM market and defense market, we are updating the full year growth rate assumptions to reflect second quarter results and current expectations for the remainder of fiscal '25.
For commercial OEM, we now expect revenue growth in the low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage range. The previous commercial OEM revenue guidance was mid-single-digit percentage range. For Defense, we now expect revenue growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit percentage range.
The previous defense revenue guidance was high single-digit percentage range. We are not updating the full year market channel growth rate assumptions for commercial aftermarket as underlying market fundamentals have not meaningfully changed.
Commercial aftermarket revenue guidance is still based on our previously issued market channel growth rate assumption of revenue growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit percentage range. The midpoint of fiscal 2025 EBITDA as defined guidance is $4.685 billion, or up approximately 12%. And with an expected margin of around 52.9%.
This guidance includes about an additional 70 basis points of margin dilution from recent acquisitions compared to fiscal '24. While we had a strong EBITDA margin result in the second quarter of fiscal year '25, margins can be lumpy and may fluctuate over the next couple of quarters. Again, this could be conservative.
The midpoint of our adjusted EPS is expected to be $36.47 or up approximately 7%. Sarah will discuss in more detail shortly, the factors impacting EPS along with some other fiscal '25 financial assumptions and updates. As the current environment is very dynamic, we will continue to evaluate our guidance and closely monitor our primary end markets as the year compresses.
We believe we are as well positioned as we can be for the remainder of fiscal '25. As usual, we will continue to closely watch how the aerospace and capital markets continue to develop and react accordingly. Let me conclude by stating that I'm very pleased with the company's performance this quarter. We remain focused on our value drivers, cost structure and operational excellence.
We look forward to the second half of fiscal '25 and providing the value you have come to expect from us. Now let me hand it over to Mike Lisman, our TransDigm Group Co-COO, to review our recent performance and a few other items.