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Shareholders in Silvaco Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SVCO) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 22% to US$4.83 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenue hit US$60m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$1.53 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Silvaco Group
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Silvaco Group are now predicting revenues of US$69.5m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 88% to US$0.17. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$68.8m and US$0.14 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target fell 8.5% to US$14.33per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Silvaco Group analyst has a price target of US$19.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Silvaco Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Silvaco Group to grow faster than the wider industry.