Is Steadfast Group's (ASX:SDF) Share Price Gain Of 140% Well Earned?

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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. One great example is Steadfast Group Limited (ASX:SDF) which saw its share price drive 140% higher over five years. We note the stock price is up 2.6% in the last seven days.

See our latest analysis for Steadfast Group

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Steadfast Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 20% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 19% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:SDF Past and Future Earnings, December 16th 2019
ASX:SDF Past and Future Earnings, December 16th 2019

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Steadfast Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Steadfast Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 192%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Steadfast Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 31% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 24% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.