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Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Taylor Wimpey plc (LON:TW.) shareholders have enjoyed a 48% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 1.5% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 2.5% in the last year, including dividends.
View our latest analysis for Taylor Wimpey
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Taylor Wimpey achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 22% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 8.1% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 8.68 also suggests market apprehension.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Taylor Wimpey has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Taylor Wimpey the TSR over the last 5 years was 96%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Taylor Wimpey shareholders are up 2.5% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 14% per year for five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.