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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. Long term carsales.com Ltd (ASX:CAR) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 106% in five years. It's also good to see the share price up 21% over the last quarter.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for carsales.com
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, carsales.com achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 18% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 16% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of carsales.com, it has a TSR of 147% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that carsales.com shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 48% over one year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 20% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand carsales.com better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for carsales.com you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.